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- Tesla Closes Above 200-Day Moving Average (Daily Update on SPY, QQQ, TLT, BTC, Mag-7)
Tesla Closes Above 200-Day Moving Average (Daily Update on SPY, QQQ, TLT, BTC, Mag-7)
TSLA Model Signals Are Out Today!
Yimin Xu
April 30, 2025
Hi YXI friends,
In the past week, all of the Magnificent 7 stocks rose, with TSLA leading the charge at an eye popping 23%. META and NVDA are both up 10%, while AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT made above 5%.
Understandably, with recessionary risks looming, the market remains skeptical whether this is a bull trap rather than the confirmation of the bottom. All of the Mag-7 stocks are still in deep drawdowns YTD - most in the double digit territories.
We cover SPY, QQQ, TLT, BTC, and Mag-7 every day to watch and analyse the unfolding price technicals, macro liquidity factors, and with the help of machine learning models.
For those looking for Model Signals directly, you can find them in our dedicated morning note on TSLA (free), AAPL, BTC, and TLT. We also show them in the main content below.
Let’s dive in!
Table of Contents
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
1. YXI Daily Dashboard
Observations from today
Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model revised Q1 GDP down from -2.5% to -2.7%
Truflation has ticked up from the 1.4%s to 1.57%.
Yields continue drifting down in near term, with the 2Y10Y curve flattening.
Stocks were flat on Tuesday. Energy and Gold were down.
SPY and QQQ Charts
SPY and QQQ Daily Quant Signals Are Coming Soon.
The primary expectations are inked in black. The alternative expectations are inked in red.
SPY closed strongly yesterday after a weak open, although relatively flat from a day ago. It is now challenging the resistance zone of $555+ and the 200 day EMA. I don’t expect smooth sailing here as fast money look to get out of their previously loss-making position.
QQQ looks relatively stronger than SPY. It is moving through the heart of the high volume zone built up in March. I would expect QQQ to get above its 200 EMA before SPY.
2. Rates & TLT
FOMC Projections
We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.
FOMC Date | Before Meeting | Post Meeting | Hike/ Cut in % |
|---|---|---|---|
05/07/25 | 4.33 | 4.31 | -0.02 |
06/11/25 | 4.31 | 4.16 | -0.15 |
07/30/25 | 4.16 | 3.96 | -0.2 |
09/17/25 | 3.96 | 3.76 | -0.2 |
11/05/25 | 3.76 | 3.56 | -0.2 |
12/17/25 | 3.56 | 3.36 | -0.2 |
01/28/26 | 3.36 | 3.26 | -0.1 |
03/18/26 | 3.26 | 3.16 | -0.1 |
05/06/26 | 3.16 | 3.06 | -0.1 |
There were little changes overnight. The rates market expects 5 rate cuts before June.
3-month SOFR Futures Yields
YXI TLT Model Strategy Signal
For greater explanations on how the model strategies work, please see my separate morning note dedicated to the Daily Model Signals (TSLA signals are free).
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