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The portfolio gives you a decision. It will not tell you that the week’s damage was a crowded trade unwinding, or that a name it has held for six weeks carries a premium that only pays off in 2027. Those are the questions that decide whether a bad month reads as the process working or as something going wrong.
Two things arrive on top of the signals. The macro note, twice a week, covering liquidity, the rate path, the curve, then every major board read in the same shape with a target and the level that would prove it wrong. Deep dives on the portfolio’s own holdings cover the business, the contracted revenue behind the reported revenue, the valuation, and what would have to go wrong.
This is the same service read deeper, the work I do to hold my own positions, published as I use it.
The systematic portfolio reacts to conditions. The macro note is where those conditions get explained: liquidity, the rate path, the curve and the cross-asset currents, laid out the same way every time so the picture stays comparable week to week.
When a call fails, the downgrade is published the moment it fails, in the same note, in the same shape as the call that made it. “Our tactical overweight last week failed, as the support level was breached. We shift back to Neutral.” Every rating is dated, and the level that would prove it wrong is stated when the rating is made instead of reconstructed afterwards.
Subscribers asked for this. The written work now goes deep on what is in the portfolio. If the portfolio holds it, you get the business, the numbers, the valuation and the risks. When it is sold, you already knew the argument against it.
A holding at the time of writing, taken end to end. Identity software and the Microsoft bundling threat, contracted revenue running ahead of reported revenue, a valuation carrying a named premium on agentic AI. No rating at the end. Just the risks.
Read it →Worth saying plainly, because it is easy to assume otherwise. The portfolio is built by four quantitative models and takes no view from me. A rating in the macro note is a separate discipline: price structure, the levels that matter, and what a setup offers against what it risks at today’s price. Two methods, run side by side, each free to disagree with the other. Neither one gets to overrule the portfolio.
The rules below are the ones every rating is made under, and they are published in an appendix to every note before the calls are made. That is what lets you check the record afterwards instead of taking it on trust.
The bias reflects technical analysis only. It is separate from the quantitative models and from the fundamental research, and may differ from both. That is deliberate, because three methods that always agreed would only be one method. Everything here is for education only, never investment advice.
The models decide the portfolio. The chart read and the fundamental work sit beside it and answer different questions. Keeping them separate is the whole reason the second and third are worth anything: three methods that always agreed would only be one method.
The macro note and the deep dives come with Signals & Research, the second rung of Macro & Megacaps. The signals and the portfolio are included in full, so this replaces the first rung and does not sit on top of it.
A bad month is therefore never a surprise.
The models, the portfolio and the record, with none of the macro notes or deep dives on this page.
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Annual plans carry a free first month. You get the Research page exactly as I read it: the macro note twice a week, the deep dives on the names the portfolio holds, and the signals and portfolio underneath them. Cancel in-month and pay nothing.
The work is closer to observation than prediction. The models report where the market stands and how strongly they agree, the record shows what came of it, and the process keeps improving as that evidence builds up. None of it asks you to be attached to a particular trade, mine included. The market is the thing being read, and we are watching it from the same side of the glass.
Published for information and education. It is not personalised advice, not a managed account, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Capital is at risk, and past and simulated performance tell you nothing certain about the future.