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How it works · Every rule published, none of it paywalled

Four models read every name. Three must agree before anything is held.

That bar is the whole method. Below is one real morning, so you can see where the models stood on each name, next to the portfolio those readings produced.

Every holding traces back to a line in the table. The code will not let the two disagree.

Then the four models, one at a time, each with where it fails. After that come the construction stages, the caps and the sell check.

It runs the same way on a good week as on a bad one. Nothing in it is overruled by hand.

A REAL MORNING · WHY ONE MODEL IS NOT ENOUGH · THE FOUR MODELS · HOW THE PORTFOLIO IS BUILT · THE RECORD · WHAT TO WATCH OUT FOR · THE PUBLISHED METHODOLOGY
01What a morning looks like

Both halves of the same morning, on one page.

On the left, where the models stand on each name. On the right, the portfolio those signals produced. Every holding traces back to a line in the table. The code will not let the two disagree.

THE SIGNALSPUBLISHED 2026-08-04
TickerNamePositionTierConsensusIn the portfolio
HYGHigh-yield creditLONG2×Broad · Long●●●●15.0%
LMTLockheed MartinLONG1×Broad · Long○●●●15.0%
NVDANvidiaLONG1×Broad · Long●●●●10.4%
OKTAOktaLONG2×Broad · Long●●●○5.7%
QQQNasdaq 100FLAT1×Mixed · Flat●●○○Gate, not eligible
CDNSCadenceFLATflipped ▼1×Mixed · Flat●●●○Turned flat, not held
MACRO & MEGACAPS · DELIVERED BEFORE THE US OPEN · MEMBERS SEE EVERY NAME, WITH WRITTEN COMMENTARY

Why QQQ is absent. Only two of the four back it. Being long on the signals page is not enough, three of four have to agree. Why the 2× badges do not matter here. HYG and OKTA carry the leveraged tier on the signals page and both sit in the portfolio at 1×. The portfolio is never levered.

THE SYSTEMATIC PORTFOLIOTARGET PORTFOLIO · 2026-08-03
Macro & Megacaps, construction10 holdings · 79.1% invested
79.1%INVESTED
10 holdings79.1%Cash20.9%

Ten wedges, shaded by weight. Cash sits outside them, because it is a position here.

EVERY HOLDING, AS A SHARE OF THE INVESTED PORTFOLIODASHED LINE = 15% CAP
HYG15.0%
LMT15.0%
XLF15.0%
EEM11.7%
NVDA10.4%
IGV10.0%
ANET6.2%
OKTA5.7%
LRCX5.6%
SNOW5.4%

Three names sit exactly on the cap. That is the cap working. Sizing wanted to give HYG, LMT and XLF more. The cap said no.

The cash is the interesting number. The 20.9% is deliberate. When the names get jumpy, the portfolio holds less of them. Across the ten-year backtest it sat in cash 32% of the time and averaged 8.4 holdings.

POSITION AND TIER ARE SEPARATE

Position is long or flat, never short. Tier says how hard, 1× or 2×. It lives on the signals page only. The portfolio is long-only and unlevered, so the tier never reaches it.

FOUR CONSENSUS BANDS, NOT A SCORE

How many of the four back the call. Broad is three or more, Mixed is fewer. Three models agreeing a name should be flat reads just as strongly as three agreeing it should be long.

WHY A POSITION CAN OUTLAST ITS CONSENSUS

The badge shows where the models stand today, which can differ from what is held. A short minimum-hold keeps the portfolio from flipping on one day’s wobble. We publish both.

THE COLUMN THAT MATTERS

In the portfolio is the column nobody else publishes. It links a signal to a weight, every day. Both panels are real: signals from 4 August 2026, weights from 3 August.

02The four models

Four models, built to be wrong about different things.

Most systematic portfolios run off one thing, usually momentum. Every approach has conditions it loves and conditions it hates. One can print for two years, then hand back eighteen months of gains in six weeks. Nothing in its own output says the market underneath it changed.

MMachine learning
WHAT IT READS
The name’s own price, plus bonds, the dollar and credit around it.
WHERE IT FAILS
It learns from history. A move that runs further than history allows makes it cautious too early.
NNeural network
WHAT IT READS
The same evidence, learned a different way: recurring shapes, short and long.
WHERE IT FAILS
It reads the same raw evidence as the machine-learning model. When that misleads, both get misled.
TTrend
WHAT IT READS
Price, and nothing else.
WHERE IT FAILS
Always late at the turn. In a choppy range it gets whipsawed, and it can never tell you why.
RMarket regime
WHAT IT READS
The market’s underlying state: risk-on, risk-off, or neither.
WHERE IT FAILS
It reads the season, not the name. It can be right about the season, wrong about one tree.

A name reaches the portfolio only when it is long and at least three of the four agree. When agreement thins below three, the position closes. The money waits in cash.

Every asset gets its own line-up, tested alone and in combination on data the models never saw. On one name that line-up is a single model, on another it is three. All four publish every day, even when only some are driving the call.

03How the portfolio is built

Four stages, and none of them need a view on the day.

It means one week can be compared to the last. It also means you can check the work.

01
BEFORE ANY SIGNAL
Set up once

What goes in, and which models each name gets

  • The list of names is fixed and published. No late additions, no survivor bias.
  • Every name gets the model line-up that won on ten years of data it had never seen, so the line-up differs from one name to the next.
WHAT COMES OUT →A published universe, and a model line-up chosen on evidence.
→
02
EVERY MORNING
Before the US open

The four models read every name

  • Machine learning, neural, trend and regime.
  • Where they disagree, we print the disagreement instead of smoothing it away.
WHAT COMES OUT →One locked signal per name, frozen the moment it sends.
→
03
EVERY MONDAY
The portfolio

Signals become weights

  • A name is eligible only if the published record already has it as long. Three of the four models must back it as well.
  • Up to ten names, each sized so no single one decides the week, with the rest left in cash. Cash is a position here, not a leftover.
WHAT COMES OUT →Tickers and target weights, published in full.
→
04
AFTERWARDS
Every week and every day

The part that decides the outcome

  • The portfolio is rebuilt weekly. Weight drifts under 5% in between are left alone.
  • The sell check runs every day. A holding goes the same day the record turns it flat, or the day agreement drops below three of four.
WHAT COMES OUT →A dated record that cannot be rewritten.

Long only, never levered. Every rule and every number is set in advance. If you want the full construction, the caps, the sizing maths and the six things that can go wrong, it is all in the inception guide, free to read.

04The record

A decade of walk-forward testing stands behind every position.

The testing sits on each portfolio’s own page, at whichever horizon you want, on the same locked construction that runs today. The signals have published since late June 2026 and the portfolios started trading on 3 August 2026, so the live series is young and is labelled that way wherever it appears.

LATE JUNE 2026
The signals went live
Publish-locked from day one. Each day’s calls are frozen the moment they send, then stay readable ever after.
3 AUGUST 2026
The portfolios started trading
One per service. The P&L series begins here at zero. It is added to every Monday. Month one will be described as one month of data.
2016 to 2026
Everything before that line
A decade of walk-forward backtesting on the same locked construction, net of costs, labelled as backtest everywhere it appears.
EACH PORTFOLIO’S WALK-FORWARD BACKTEST, ON ITS OWN PAGE

Walk-forward means every point used only the data available on that day, with no re-tuning afterwards. Each portfolio page carries its own panel, so the figures live in one place and cannot drift.

BACKTEST AND LIVE CAN NEVER BLUR

The platform holds them in separate tagged series and the P&L endpoint will not merge them. A backtest cannot be dressed up as a track record here, because the data layer will not produce one.

The full record →
05What to watch out for

The awkward parts, and the design decisions that look like flaws.

A backtest is a backtest. Both lists are said plainly, because you would otherwise find them out the hard way.

Cash is a deliberate lever, and it can be a large one.
The portfolio is long-only and unlevered, so cash is how it dials risk. The invested share is scaled to hold volatility near target. In a downturn fewer names qualify for selection, so the cash balance rises by itself. Expect stretches where a large part of the portfolio sits in cash by design.
It runs more concentrated than you may be used to.
Ten holdings, and often fewer, because three of four cannot always agree on ten names. Macro & Megacaps averaged 8.4 in the backtest. The cap stops any one name taking over: 15% of the invested portfolio at ten holdings, 25% ever.
The turnover is not tax-friendly.
The portfolios rebuild weekly and sell mid-week, which in a taxable account costs real money. Trading costs are modelled at 5bp per side and already deducted here, roughly 0.9% a year. Tax is yours and is not modelled anywhere.
Do I place the trades myself? Could you simply be wrong?
Yes, and yes. The portfolio is published as a reference: tickers, weights, reasoning. It is not a managed account and not advice. Four models agreeing is a higher bar than one, but it is not a guarantee. There will be months when all four are wrong together.
AND FOUR THINGS THAT ARE DELIBERATE
If you need an entry, a stop and a target.
We publish target weights, not fills. The exit is a condition, so a holding leaves when the record turns it flat or when agreement drops below three of four.
If a cash balance reads as indecision.
These portfolios sit in cash whenever three of four cannot agree, which was about a third of the time across the ten-year backtest.
If you want the models overruled when they look wrong.
They are not overruled, by anyone, including me. That is the only reason the record means anything. It also means there will be positions here you would not have taken.
If you need a long live record before you start.
Fair enough, and it does not exist yet. The portfolios began trading on 3 August 2026. Everything before that line is backtested. Waiting is a perfectly good answer.
06Where to go next

Two universes run on this method.

Each ships both halves: the daily signals, and the portfolio built from them. Same construction, different universes.

MACRO & MEGACAPS · 73 NAMES
The broad universe
US indices, rates, the dollar, credit and the sector ETFs. The megacaps behind AI, plus the crypto majors.
See what it covers →
COMMODITIES · 24 NAMES
The second universe
Metals, energy, agriculture and uranium, plus the producers. Built on its own universe, so the two rarely struggle together.
See what it covers →
Annual plans carry a free first month.
Read a month of it against a live market. Cancel inside that month and pay nothing.
See what it costs →
07Read the methodology

Everything above is summarised from three notes published in full.

All three are open, with no paywall and no card. If you are going to disagree with the construction, disagree with the actual thing.

The order matters. The evidence note is step one, because it sets the standard the other two are held to. The signals note is step two. The inception guide is step three. Read them that way and everything on this page should be checkable.

Published for information and education. It is not personalised advice, not a managed account, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Capital is at risk. Past and backtested performance tell you nothing certain about the future.