I built the research operation I always wanted and could never buy.
Four models, a data pipeline, ten years of testing, and the discipline to run it every trading morning. I want a dated, checkable record to be an ordinary thing to expect from anyone selling research. The only way to argue for that is to keep one.
Yimin Xu, founder
Market-maker, NatWest
Quoted two-way prices in G10 FX swaps and short-term rates in London.
ICAEW Chartered Accountant
Trained to read a set of numbers backwards, from the published figure to the judgement behind it.
FOMC coverage, Seeking Alpha
Leads the commentary on the Federal Reserve press conference, published live with a timestamp, since 2021.
I learned to answer for a position first.
On a G10 desk at NatWest, anyone could ask me for a price in either direction at any moment. I had to give one. You find out what you really believe quickly when the alternative is a number on a screen with your name against it.
What shaped everything afterwards was the review. When someone senior asked why a position was on, the answer had to hold up step by step, not just sound convincing. Vague did not survive that desk. Neither did clever.
Accountancy taught me to stop taking a headline number at face value and to ask who chose it. The FOMC commentary taught me to publish a view with a timestamp, in front of readers who tell me straight away when I am wrong. I have kept that constraint here on purpose.
I got tired of being the least reliable part of my own process.
Someone asks why you hold something. Halfway through the answer, you hear that it is not reasoning. It is a preference that has learned some vocabulary.
I could have tried to become more disciplined. That holds until a genuinely bad month arrives. Instead, I spent two years building something that does not need me at my best. Four independent models read every market I follow before the US open. The portfolio takes only what they agree on, with exact weights. The record then says what came of it. Nobody can edit it.
The surprise was the relief. I no longer spend my time defending my views. I watch what the models tell me about the markets. I learn more than I did when I was busy proving myself right.
You see the same page I do, at the same time.
It is not a summary, and not a version prepared for subscribers. The work runs on the difficult mornings as well as the easy ones. The record is there either way.
You can use it as a portfolio, or as a second opinion to argue with. What you do with your money stays yours. So does the credit.
Your first 30 days of the Systematic Portfolios are free.
You get each morning’s portfolio, and the Multi-model Signals behind it, from the first day. Cancel before the 30 days end and you pay nothing.
YX Insights publishes research for information and education. It is not personal advice and not a managed account: you decide what to do with your own money. Capital is at risk. Past and backtested performance do not guarantee future returns.