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We lock every portfolio when we send it and publish the results every week, the weak weeks included. The live record starts on 3 August 2026. Everything before that date is backtest, and we label it that way everywhere.
Nobody can edit a signal or a weight after it goes out, including me.
The two sit in separate series. We never join them into one line.
A correction publishes as its own dated entry, beside the original.
From 3 August to 6 November 2026, 69 trading sessions, net of trading costs. We update these figures every week.
| Portfolio | Return | Volatility | Worst fall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macro & Megacaps | −1.1% | 14.3% | −7.9% |
| Commodities | −3.6% | 14.9% | −11.0% |
| 75% Macro & Megacaps, 25% Commodities | −1.7% | 11.9% | −7.5% |
| S&P 500 | −1.6% | 13.7% | −5.9% |
We measure each day close to close, on the weights the portfolio held that day. The first day counts from the open. Macro & Megacaps Crypto went live on 5 October 2026, so its live record is still too short to publish.
The backtest shows how today’s design would have behaved over the past decade. The live record is the real test.
21 June 2016 to 31 July 2026, net of trading costs. Logarithmic scale, so equal steps are equal percentage moves.
| Portfolio | A year | Volatility | Worst fall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macro & Megacaps | 32.0% | 14.5% | −16.5% |
| Macro & Megacaps Crypto | 39.0% | 15.9% | −18.4% |
| Commodities | 16.7% | 14.0% | −16.1% |
| 75% Macro & Megacaps, 25% Commodities | 28.5% | 12.6% | −10.6% |
| S&P 500 | 15.4% | 17.1% | −32.0% |
Trading costs are already taken out, at 5 basis points each way. Each portfolio draws from a subset of the names the models read, and the backtest covers that subset. The 75/25 mix resets to its split on the first trading day of each quarter.
| Year | Macro & Megacaps | Commodities | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016* | +10.1% | +7.7% | +9.2% |
| 2017 | +31.4% | +8.8% | +21.3% |
| 2018 | +6.7% | +8.0% | −6.4% |
| 2019 | +36.0% | +28.7% | +34.0% |
| 2020 | +68.8% | +37.2% | +18.2% |
| 2021 | +40.9% | +19.6% | +28.6% |
| 2022 | −12.3% | +17.5% | −18.0% |
| 2023 | +37.5% | −6.5% | +24.7% |
| 2024 | +52.6% | +2.0% | +26.4% |
| 2025 | +37.6% | +54.4% | +17.7% |
| 2026* | +29.9% | +2.9% | +9.9% |
Backtest, net of trading costs. *2016 runs from 21 June and 2026 runs to 31 July, the last day before the portfolios began.
You get each morning’s portfolio, and the Multi-model Signals behind it, from the first day. Cancel before the 30 days end and you pay nothing.
YX Insights publishes research for information and education. It is not personal advice and not a managed account: you decide what to do with your own money. Capital is at risk. Backtested results are hypothetical, and past and backtested performance do not guarantee future returns.