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Every chart shows you where a price is today. Almost none show you the line it has been travelling along for the last fifteen years, or how far it has drifted from that line right now. This page fits that line for five assets and measures the gap.
A power law says growth decays as an asset ages, so every doubling takes longer than the one before it. An exponential says growth holds a constant rate, so every doubling takes the same time. The two make very different promises about the next ten years.
We fitted both to all five, over the whole price history, and let the numbers pick. The column that wins is the one in navy.
| Asset | Power law R² | Exponential R² | We keep |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +0.394 | +0.860 | exponential |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQ | +0.227 | +0.819 | exponential |
| Tesla TSLA | +0.347 | +0.665 | exponential |
| Bitcoin BTCUSD | +0.529 | -1.781 | power law |
| Ethereum ETHUSD | +0.549 | -1.435 | power law |
The split is clean. The three equities take the exponential. The two crypto assets take the power law, and their exponential scores fall below zero. A negative score means a flat line drawn through the average price would have described them better than the curve did.
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The broad US market, thirty years of it. The chart below carries the fit, the bands either side of it, and where price is sitting today.
Hover the chart to read the fit and its standard deviation ladder at any date, out to October 2028. Touch screens have no hover, so the headline numbers are in the cells below.
FITTED ON ALL AVAILABLE HISTORY, PRICES TO 2026-10-02
The growth end of the same market. The chart below carries the fit, the bands either side of it, and where price is sitting today.
Hover the chart to read the fit and its standard deviation ladder at any date, out to October 2028. Touch screens have no hover, so the headline numbers are in the cells below.
FITTED ON ALL AVAILABLE HISTORY, PRICES TO 2026-10-02
One of the most watched tickers in the world. The chart below carries the fit, the bands either side of it, and where price is sitting today.
Hover the chart to read the fit and its standard deviation ladder at any date, out to October 2028. Touch screens have no hover, so the headline numbers are in the cells below.
FITTED ON ALL AVAILABLE HISTORY, PRICES TO 2026-10-02
The longest price history in crypto. The chart below carries the fit, the bands either side of it, and where price is sitting today.
Hover the chart to read the fit and its standard deviation ladder at any date, out to October 2028. Touch screens have no hover, so the headline numbers are in the cells below.
FITTED ON ALL AVAILABLE HISTORY, PRICES TO 2026-10-05
The second crypto asset, read the same way. The chart below carries the fit, the bands either side of it, and where price is sitting today.
Hover the chart to read the fit and its standard deviation ladder at any date, out to October 2028. Touch screens have no hover, so the headline numbers are in the cells below.
FITTED ON ALL AVAILABLE HISTORY, PRICES TO 2026-10-05
This page fits a curve to a price and measures the distance. The systematic work asks a different question every morning, on every name in the universe, and turns the answer into a portfolio, published in full every morning.
Daily adjusted closes, every trading day the asset has ever had, from the first print to last night. No window, no lookback choice, because a lookback choice is where most of these charts get their answer.
Both are fitted by least squares in log price. The power law is a straight line against log time. The exponential is a straight line against calendar time. Two parameters each, and nothing is tuned by hand.
One standard deviation of the log residuals, applied as a percentage of the fitted value. A fixed dollar band would be wrong here, because ten dollars means one thing at $3 and another at $300.
R² measured in price, not in logs. Measured in logs it flatters every one of these fits. It can go negative, and when it does it means the curve is beaten by a flat line through the mean.
A fit scoring under 0.30 gets no band and no forward range. Nvidia and Micron were dropped from this page on that rule. Nvidia scores below zero on the power law.
A regression describes the past shape of a price. It carries no earnings, no rates, no flows and no regime. Treat the distance as a measurement of where you are standing, never as a forecast of where you land.
FITS REGENERATED 2026-09-07 14:03 UTC (INTERIM)
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Published for information and education. It is not personalised advice, not a managed account, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Capital is at risk, and past and simulated performance tell you nothing certain about the future.