FOMC Minutes September 2026: Another Rise Likely by Year End

The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the rate-setting committee of the Federal Reserve (the Fed), came out on 7 October 2026. They cover its meeting of 15 and 16 September. Most officials judged that another rate rise "would likely be appropriate by year end", but the minutes gave no date.

At that meeting, the Fed raised its target range for interest rates by 0.25 points. It was the first rise since July 2023.

The target range is the band the Fed sets for the Fed Funds Rate, the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. We explain how the Fed steers it in How the Fed Sets Rates.

The vote was 12 to 0. The minutes add: "Voting against this action: None." They also say "all participants supported raising the target range". That includes the Reserve Bank presidents who do not vote this year.

On the path ahead, "most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end." The minutes add that "decisions at future meetings would depend on incoming information".

"Many participants emphasized that a higher path for the target range would be prudent on risk-management grounds". Separately, "Several participants stated that they viewed the current policy rate as not restrictive or only mildly restrictive." A restrictive rate is one high enough to slow spending and inflation.

The chart shows the target range since 2019. The Fed cut it to 0% to 0.25% in March 2020. It then raised it to 5.25% to 5.5% by July 2023.

Cuts from September 2024 took it to 3.5% to 3.75% by December 2025. The September 2026 rise lifted it 0.25 points from there, to 3.75% to 4%.

Inflation. Participants "had not seen sufficient progress on lowering inflation in recent months". They "generally assessed inflation risk as skewed to the upside". The Fed's preferred inflation measure is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

At the meeting, Fed staff estimated August PCE inflation at 3.8%. The official figure came later. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) published 3.4% for August, after changing its methods.

Core PCE inflation, which leaves out food and energy, was 3.0%. The Fed's target is 2%. We explain the measure in What Is PCE Inflation?

Jobs. Participants "generally viewed the labor market as close to maximum employment". Staff noted an Unemployment Rate of 4.1% in July and August. The September jobs report, out on 2 October, put it at 4.2%. Payrolls rose by 29,000.

The balance sheet. The New York Fed's trading desk "had paused reserve management purchases". These are Treasury bill purchases that keep bank reserves ample.

A few participants "noted the importance of planning for market stress". The Fed held $6.74 trillion of assets on 30 September. We explain how the balance sheet works in Fed Balance Sheet Explained.

The minutes came out at 2:00 p.m. Eastern time on 7 October. These moves compare that day's close with the close on 6 October:

The euro's European Central Bank reference rate fell 0.8%, from $1.1269 on 6 October to $1.1177 on 7 October. It is set at 2:15 p.m. Frankfurt time, before the minutes came out.

On the evening of 6 October, CNBC reported that futures pricing pointed to no change on 28 October. It pointed to a 0.25-point rise in December. We explain these contracts in What Are Fed Funds Futures?

The next decision is on 28 October. The one after is on 9 December, with a new Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the officials' own forecasts.

The chart compares the officials' median projections from June and September 2026. In September, the median for the end of 2026 was 4.1%, up from 3.8% in June.

The middle of today's range is 3.875%. One more 0.25-point rise would take the middle to 4.125%. Rounded, that is the 4.1% median.

The September medians were 4.1% for the end of 2027 and 3.9% for the end of 2028. For the longer run, once the economy settles, the median was 3.2%.

Of the 18 officials who sent projections, 16 put the rate above today's level at the end of 2026. None projected a cut.

The September minutes show a Fed that raised rates without a vote against. Most officials expected one more rise by the end of 2026, while the timing waits on the inflation and jobs data.

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The Fed released them on Wednesday 7 October 2026 at 2:00 p.m. Eastern time. That was three weeks after the decision of 16 September. The Fed generally publishes minutes three weeks after each scheduled meeting. They cover the meeting of 15 and 16 September, when the target range rose 0.25 points to 3.75% to 4%.

No. The FOMC approved its statement by a 12 to 0 vote. The minutes record "Voting against this action: None." They also say all participants supported the rise. That includes the Reserve Bank presidents who do not vote this year. The rise took the target range to 3.75% to 4%.

The minutes say most officials saw another rise as likely to be right by the end of 2026. They gave no date. The median projection from September, 4.1% for the end of 2026, implies one more 0.25-point rise. Two decisions remain this year, on 28 October and 9 December.

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