SPY (the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund, or ETF) had its latest golden cross on 27 June 2025. That day, its 50-day average price rose above its 200-day average. By 6 October 2026, SPY was 28.4% higher, with dividends counted.
A gain like that makes the golden cross look like a buy signal. This guide explains it and its opposite, the death cross. It then lists all 30 crosses on SPY since 1994 and tests what followed each one.
What is a golden cross? A golden cross is the day a share's or fund's 50-day moving average rises above its 200-day moving average. A moving average is the mean, or simple average, closing price over a set number of past trading days.
A death cross is the reverse: the 50-day average falls below the 200-day. SPY has had 15 of each since 1994.
Neither cross was a reliable guide to the year ahead. After SPY's golden crosses, the median (middle) 12-month return was 16.0%. After any day, it was 14.8%. Death crosses were followed by a higher median, 19.0%, but also by the deepest falls.
The cross comes late. SPY's 2025 golden cross came when SPY was already 24.2% above its April low.
What is a golden cross and a death cross?
A moving average is the mean of the last set of closing prices, recalculated each day. This guide uses the simple moving average, where each day counts equally. What Is a Moving Average? explains it in full.
The 50-day average uses the last 50 trading days, about ten weeks. The 200-day average uses the last 200, about 40 weeks. The two averages give two events:
Golden cross: the 50-day average closes above the 200-day, after being below it.
Death cross: the 50-day average closes below the 200-day, after being above it.
The two always alternate. Since its first full 200-day average in November 1993, SPY's 50-day average has sat above its 200-day on 77.2% of trading days.
How a golden cross is calculated, worked on SPY
Each average is the sum of the last n closes, divided by n. This guide uses closing prices adjusted for dividends, so a payout does not show up as a fall.
On 6 October 2026, SPY closed at $779.09. Its 50-day average was $763.82. Its 200-day average was $718.14.
The gap is $763.82 − $718.14 = $45.68. As a share of the 200-day, that is 45.68 ÷ 718.14 = 6.4%. The 50-day is above, so the latest cross was golden.
To find the cross itself, check the gap day by day. On 26 June 2025, the 50-day sat 0.18% below the 200-day. On 27 June, it sat 0.02% above. The sign flipped, so 27 June 2025 was the golden cross.
The 2025 death cross and golden cross on SPY
Source: YX Insights
Chart 1 shows SPY's price and both averages from January 2025 to 6 October 2026. The lower panel shows the gap between the two averages. A cross happens each time the gap passes zero.
SPY fell 18.8% from its 19 February 2025 peak to its 8 April low.
The death cross came on 16 April, six trading days after the low. By then, SPY was already 14.0% below its February high. That fall from a high is a drawdown, explained in What Is a Drawdown?
The golden cross followed on 27 June. SPY was then 24.2% above its April low. It was even 0.9% above its February high.
The lag is built in. A 200-day average moves slowly. So the 50-day average crosses it only after prices have already moved a long way.
Every golden cross and death cross on SPY since 1994
Death cross | SPY 12 months later | Next golden cross | SPY 12 months later |
|---|---|---|---|
29 Apr 1994 | +17.4% | 1 Sep 1994 | +21.8% |
1 Oct 1998 | +31.5% | 4 Dec 1998 | +22.0% |
2 Nov 2000 | −20.1% | 19 Apr 2002 | −19.2% |
16 May 2002 | −12.6% | 12 May 2003 | +17.5% |
25 Aug 2004 | +11.2% | 27 Oct 2004 | +7.9% |
25 Jul 2006 | +19.0% | 29 Aug 2006 | +14.0% |
28 Dec 2007 | −39.6% | 18 Jun 2009 | +24.2% |
7 Jul 2010 | +28.8% | 13 Oct 2010 | +4.4% |
17 Aug 2011 | +21.2% | 23 Jan 2012 | +16.0% |
3 Sep 2015 | +14.1% | 9 Dec 2015 | +12.0% |
15 Jan 2016 | +23.1% | 20 Apr 2016 | +14.3% |
12 Dec 2018 | +21.9% | 26 Mar 2019 | −10.4% |
31 Mar 2020 | +56.2% | 2 Jul 2020 | +41.0% |
16 Mar 2022 | −8.7% | 26 Jan 2023 | +23.2% |
16 Apr 2025 | +36.4% | 27 Jun 2025 | +22.8% |
Source: YX Insights
Each row shows a death cross, then the golden cross that followed. The return runs from the close on the cross day to the close 12 months later, with dividends counted.
SPY averaged 0.9 crosses a year. Some reversed quickly. Six of the 30 were undone by the opposite cross within 63 trading days, about three months. In 2002, a golden cross on 19 April was undone by a death cross on 16 May.
Golden cross returns vs all days on SPY
Source: YX Insights
Chart 2 compares the median return after SPY's crosses with the median after all days since 1994. The all-days figure is the base rate a signal has to beat.
The test follows three rules:
No look-ahead. The signal uses the close on the day of the cross. Returns run from that close to the close 63, 126 or 252 trading days later: 3, 6 and 12 months.
Events, not days. Each cross counts once, on its first day. Return windows can overlap when crosses come close together.
No costs. Trading costs and tax are ignored.
After golden crosses, the median 12-month return was 16.0%. After all days, it was 14.8%. Over 3 and 6 months, the gaps were smaller: 4.4% against 3.9%, then 7.3% against 7.1%.
SPY rose in the 12 months after 13 of its 15 golden crosses. That is 86.7%, against 81.4% of all days. With 15 events, one more loss would cut the share to 80.0%, below the base rate.
The mean was 14.1% after golden crosses, against 12.4% after all days.
Death cross returns vs all days on SPY
On SPY, the median 12-month return after a death cross was 19.0%, above the 14.8% after all days. SPY rose in the following 12 months after 11 of its 15 death crosses. That share is below the 81.4% for all days.
The mean was 13.3%, below the death-cross median, because a few deep falls pull it down. It was still above the 12.4% mean after all days. The death cross of 28 December 2007 was followed by a 39.6% fall over 12 months. The one on 2 November 2000 was followed by a 20.1% fall.
Other death crosses came near a low. The 2020 and 2025 death crosses each came six trading days after SPY's low. After the one on 31 March 2020, SPY rose 56.2% in 12 months.
So selling on a death cross can avoid part of a deep fall. It can also miss a rebound.
Golden and death cross returns across 15 funds
Source: YX Insights
One fund's history is a small sample. Chart 3 repeats the test on 15 US-listed funds: the S&P 500, the Nasdaq-100, small companies, developed markets, nine sectors, gold and long-dated US government bonds (Treasuries). Each fund runs from its first full 200-day average to 6 October 2026.
The set is fixed: broad index, sector, gold and Treasury funds, picked before the test. The same 15 funds are used in all our indicator guides.
The 15 funds had 268 golden crosses and 267 death crosses. The median 12-month return after a golden cross was 11.1%, the same as after all days. After a death cross, it was 13.0%. Gains followed 76.4% of golden crosses over 12 months, against 74.7% of all days.
The pooled crosses are not independent. A market-wide sell-off triggers many funds at once. In March 2020, 8 of the 15 funds had a death cross. So the 535 crosses carry less information than the count suggests.
What goes wrong with the golden cross
It lags. As in 2025, the cross confirms a move that has already happened.
It whipsaws. Across the 15 funds, 31.0% of crosses were undone by the opposite cross within three months.
The 50/200 pair is one choice of many. Other pairs of averages give other dates. Our essay I Tested the Golden Cross Against a Coin-Flipping Monkey found that picking the past best pair did no better than picking one at random.
The dates depend on the prices used. This guide uses prices adjusted for dividends. On unadjusted prices, SPY's 2025 death cross falls on 14 April, while the golden cross falls on 1 July.
How to read a golden cross
A few checks help:
Check the gap. A gap near zero can flip back within days.
Check the price against the 200-day. On 6 October 2026, SPY closed 8.5% above its 200-day average. What Is a Moving Average? tests rules built on that measure.
Compare with the base rate. Set any return after a signal against the return after all days, over the same dates.
A golden cross is the day the 50-day average rises above the 200-day. It confirms a trend that has already run. On SPY since 1994, the returns after it were close to the returns after any day. The death cross was no cleaner: some came before deep falls, others near the low.
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Common questions about the golden cross
Is a golden cross a buy signal?
A golden cross marks an uptrend in the averages, but on SPY it said little about the year ahead. Since 1994, the median 12-month return after SPY's 15 golden crosses was 16.0%. After all days, it was 14.8%. That gap is small. Fifteen events is also a small sample. Costs and tax are ignored.
What is the difference between a golden cross and a death cross?
A golden cross is when the 50-day moving average rises above the 200-day moving average. A death cross is the reverse: the 50-day falls below the 200-day. The two always alternate. SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) has had 15 of each since 1994. The latest was a golden cross on 27 June 2025.
When was the last golden cross on the S&P 500?
On SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, the latest golden cross came on 27 June 2025, using prices adjusted for dividends. On unadjusted prices, it fell on 1 July 2025. It followed a death cross in April 2025. By 6 October 2026, SPY's 50-day average was still 6.4% above its 200-day average.
How reliable is the golden cross?
On this evidence, the golden cross is a weak guide to future returns. Across 15 US-listed funds, the median 12-month return after a golden cross was 11.1%, the same as after all days. Also, 31.0% of crosses were undone within three months. Costs and tax are ignored in these figures.
DISCLAIMER: This article is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.