Economic Data Revisions: Why Jobs and GDP Figures Change

On 7 August 2026, the first estimate said the US lost 23,000 jobs in July. A month later, the same month showed a gain of 21,000 jobs. On 2 October, July was revised again, to a loss of 10,000.

Nothing about July had changed. What changed was how much information the statisticians had. Here is why first releases get revised, how the US jobs and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are updated and how large the changes usually are.

A data revision is a change to a figure that has already been published. The first version is often called the first print. Each later version is a new vintage of the same number.

Agencies publish early so that a figure is out within weeks. The trade-off is that the early figure rests on part of the data.

FRED, the St. Louis Fed's free database, shows only the latest version of each series. Its archive, ALFRED (Archival FRED), keeps every earlier vintage. We explain both in What Is FRED Economic Data?

Nonfarm Payrolls count US jobs outside farming. The figure comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which surveys about 119,000 businesses and government agencies each month. We explain the full report in What Are Nonfarm Payrolls?

The first estimate comes out a few weeks after the month ends, before every employer has replied. So the BLS revises each month twice, in the next two jobs reports. In its own words, "The prior 2 months are routinely revised to incorporate additional sample reports".

Seasonal adjustment also plays a part. It smooths out swings that repeat every year, such as holiday hiring. Each month, the BLS recalculates those adjustments for the new month and the two it revises.

The chart shows every published estimate for June, July and August 2026. July is the clearest case.

July's first estimate, on 7 August, was a loss of 23,000 jobs. The second, on 4 September, was a gain of 21,000. The third, on 2 October, was a loss of 10,000.

June moved the other way round. It started at a gain of 57,000, fell to 20,000, then rose to 31,000. August was first put at 162,000. The 2 October report cut it to 133,000.

The 2 October report also said July and August combined were 60,000 jobs lower than previously reported. That is the sum of July's cut of 31,000 and August's cut of 29,000.

The chart shows the mean size of the revision from first to third estimate in each year since 2010. Size here ignores direction, so a cut and a rise of the same number of jobs count the same.

Across the 198 months from January 2010 to July 2026 that had a first estimate, the mean revision was 53,000 jobs. The median revision was 34,000. The years 2020 and 2021 stand out. Those were the years of the pandemic closures and the rebound in hiring that followed.

Revisions are not always in one direction. Over those 198 months, the third estimate was higher than the first in 110 months and lower in 88. In 2025, though, it was lower in all 11 months that had a first estimate. Those cuts added up to 638,000 jobs.

October 2025 had no first estimate of its own. After the government shutdown, its first figure came out with November's, on 16 December 2025.

Sometimes a gain turns into a loss. That happened in 7 of the 198 months. June 2025 was first reported as a gain of 147,000 jobs. By the third estimate, it was a loss of 13,000.

Once a year, the BLS checks its survey against a near-complete count of jobs. That count comes from unemployment insurance tax records, which almost all employers file. The change this makes is called the benchmark revision.

The benchmark is set for March of each year. The BLS first publishes a preliminary figure, then builds the final one into the January jobs report in February.

For March 2025, the BLS's preliminary estimate, published on 9 September 2025, was a cut of 911,000 jobs. The final benchmark, in the 11 February 2026 report, was a cut of 862,000 before seasonal adjustment, or 0.5% of all jobs.

For March 2026, the preliminary estimate, published on 28 August 2026, is a cut of 79,000. That is 0.05% of all jobs, which the BLS rounds to 0.1%. Over the last ten years, the BLS says, benchmark revisions have averaged 0.2% of all jobs, up or down. The final March 2026 figure will come with the January 2027 report.

Gross Domestic Product measures the value of everything an economy produces. We explain it in What Is GDP?

In the US, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) publishes it in three steps for each quarter. The advance estimate comes about a month after the quarter ends. A second and a third estimate follow, a month apart.

The chart shows US real GDP growth, after inflation. Each quarter's growth is scaled up to a yearly pace, which is how the US reports it.

The first quarter of 2026 went from 2.0% to 1.6%, then 2.1%. BEA said the rise to 2.1% came "primarily" from lower imports, after an annual update of its international trade data. The second quarter stayed at 1.5% in the advance and second estimates.

Once a year, BEA also makes an annual update that revises several past years. The 2026 update, on 30 September, covered the first quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2026. It raised the first quarter of 2026 to 2.5%. The second quarter's third estimate came out the same day, at 2.2%.

The next jobs report, for October, is due on 6 November 2026. The advance estimate of GDP for the third quarter is due on 29 October.

First releases are the best figure available on the day, but they rest on incomplete data. Read each one as a draft, look at how the earlier months were revised and judge the trend over several months.

This explainer is part of the YX Insights Academy. Each one takes a single idea and checks it against real data.

The same approach runs through everything else we publish:

Good places to start on the website:

Jobs numbers are revised because the first estimate is published before every surveyed employer has replied. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) adds the late replies over the next two months. It also updates its seasonal adjustment. Once a year, it checks the total against unemployment insurance tax records, which cover almost every employer.

Each month's payroll figure is revised twice, in the next two monthly jobs reports. After that, it stays fixed until the annual benchmark revision, which the BLS builds into the January jobs report each February.

Yes. The jobs report of 2 October 2026 revised July 2026 to a loss of 10,000 jobs. The first estimate, on 7 August, was a loss of 23,000. The second, on 4 September, was a gain of 21,000. The same report cut August from 162,000 to 133,000 jobs.

From January 2010 to July 2026, the monthly payroll change moved by 53,000 jobs on average between the first and third estimates, in either direction. The median revision was 34,000. In 2025, all 11 months with a first estimate were revised down, by 638,000 jobs in total.

US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gets revised because the first estimate comes out about a month after each quarter ends, before all the source data are in. The Bureau of Economic Analysis then publishes a second and a third estimate, a month apart. Second-quarter 2026 growth was first put at 1.5% a year, then raised to 2.2% in the third estimate.

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