Gold rose 63% in 2025. That was its fourth-best calendar year since 1971. Since then it has stalled. Gold's average price in September 2026 was only 0.2% above its average in December 2025.
So will the gold price go down from here? This guide makes no forecast. It shows what gold did after its biggest yearly gains, how deep and long its worst falls ran and where it stands now.
Will the gold price go down? The gold price has fallen many times, once for almost 20 years. Its history cannot say what comes next, but it shows what followed past rallies and how deep the falls went.
Gold rose 25% or more in 10 calendar years since 1971. Nine of them have a full year after, since 2026 is not over. In 7 of those 9, gold rose again the next year.
Gold's longest fall began in January 1980. Gold dropped 62% by July 1999 and took 26 years to regain its high. After inflation, it took 45 years.
On 6 October 2026, GLD (the gold exchange-traded fund, or ETF) closed 22.9% below its high of 29 January 2026.
How we measure gold's yearly gains and falls
We use the World Bank's monthly gold price, in dollars an ounce. Each month's figure is an average of that month's daily prices. The series starts in 1960.
A calendar-year change runs from one December's average to the next December's average. Year-end daily prices would be closer to the true calendar year, but this monthly series is the long one. Our guide Is Gold an Inflation Hedge? uses the same method.
The test starts in 1971. That August, the US stopped letting foreign governments swap dollars for its gold at a fixed $35 an ounce.
That gives 54 full calendar years, from 1972 to 2025.
What happened after gold's biggest rallies
Source: World Bank Pink Sheet; YX Insights
Chart 1 shows the 10 calendar years in which gold rose 25% or more. The grey bars show the gain in that year. The blue bars show the change in the following year. For 2025, the orange mark shows 2026 so far: up 0.2% to September.
In 7 of the 9 years with a full year after, gold rose again. It fell twice: by 24% in 1975 and by 4% in 2021. The median change in the next year was a gain of 23%. After all 53 years with a full year after, the median was 2.7%.
Big rallies came in runs. Gold rose 25% or more in each year from 1972 to 1974. It did so again in 1978 and 1979, then in 2024 and 2025. So several "next years" in the chart are rally years themselves.
Rally year | Gold price, December average | Gain in the year | Next 1 year | Next 3 years | Next 5 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1972 | $64 | +49% | +67% | +117% | +150% |
1973 | $107 | +67% | +72% | +25% | +94% |
1974 | $184 | +72% | −24% | −13% | +147% |
1978 | $208 | +30% | +119% | +97% | +87% |
1979 | $455 | +119% | +18% | −2% | −30% |
2007 | $803 | +27% | +2% | +73% | +110% |
2009 | $1,135 | +39% | +23% | +48% | +6% |
2020 | $1,858 | +26% | −4% | +9% | +132% |
2024 | $2,648 | +31% | +63% | – | – |
2025 | $4,309 | +63% | – | – | – |
Source: World Bank Pink Sheet; YX Insights
The table adds three and five years. Three years after a rally year, gold was higher in 6 of 8 cases. Five years after, it was higher in 7 of 8. The median five-year gain was 102%, against 28% after all 49 years with five years of data.
The one loss after five years followed 1979. Gold's December 1979 average was $455. Five years later, in December 1984, it was 30% lower.
Ten cases is a small sample. Five of them fall in the 1970s, when US inflation ran high. So the pattern describes the past. It does not set odds for the future.
Gold's long falls: 1980 to 1999 and 2011 to 2015
A drawdown is how far a price stands below its previous high. We explain it in What Is a Drawdown?
Source: World Bank Pink Sheet; FRED (CPIAUCNS); YX Insights
Chart 2 shows gold's drawdown each month since January 1971. The blue line uses the dollar price. The orange line uses the price after US inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Two long falls stand out.
1980 to 1999. Gold averaged $675 an ounce in January 1980, after a spike from $455 a month earlier. It then fell 62%, to $256 in July 1999, almost 20 years later. Gold got back to $675 only in May 2006, 26 years after the peak.
2011 to 2015. Gold averaged $1,772 in September 2011. It fell 39%, to $1,076 in December 2015. Gold regained its 2011 high in July 2020, almost nine years after the peak.
After inflation, both falls were deeper and longer. The real price, meaning the price adjusted for inflation, fell 83% from January 1980 to April 2001. It did not regain its 1980 level until February 2025, 45 years later.
The real fall from 2011 to 2015 was 42%. The 2011 real high came back in August 2024, almost 13 years after the peak.
There was also a sharp fall straight after a rally. Gold rose 72% in 1974. It then fell 40% from December 1974 to August 1976.
Where the gold price stands on 6 October 2026
Source: YX Insights
Chart 3 shows the daily closing price of GLD (the gold exchange-traded fund, or ETF). GLD holds gold bars and trades on a stock exchange like a share. It closed at $382.27 on 6 October 2026. That was 22.9% below its high of $495.90 on 29 January 2026.
GLD fell as far as $364.96 on 16 July 2026, 26.4% below the high. It was still 55.8% above its price on 2 January 2025.
The World Bank's monthly average tells a milder story. Gold averaged $4,319 an ounce in September 2026. That was 14.0% below the February 2026 average of $5,020, the highest monthly average since the series began in 1960. It was also 17.7% above September 2025.
The two measures also differ on 2026 so far. GLD's close fell 3.5%, from $396.31 on 31 December 2025 to $382.27 on 6 October 2026. The World Bank's monthly average rose 0.2%, from December 2025 to September 2026.
The two measures compare different dates. Monthly averages also smooth out single days, so they show smaller swings than daily closes. How GLD tracks gold is covered in How Do Gold ETFs Work?
How to read gold's price history
A few checks help:
Averages or closes. Monthly averages hide single-day peaks. A December-to-December count can hide more. Gold jumped from $455 in December 1979 to $675 in January 1980, a spike that a count of Decembers misses.
After inflation. In real terms, gold's falls ran deeper and longer.
Sample size. Ten rally years, half of them in the 1970s, cannot set the odds for the next one.
The drawdown. How far gold stands below its high says more about risk than the price alone.
The causes. This guide shows what happened, not why. What moves gold is tested in What Drives the Gold Price?
After gold's 10 biggest yearly gains, the next year rose 7 times out of 9, with falls only in 1975 and 2021. Gold's longest fall came after its January 1980 peak. That high took 26 years to regain in dollars. After inflation, it took 45 years.
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Common questions about the gold price
Can the gold price go down?
Yes, the gold price can fall a long way. Its monthly average fell 62% from January 1980 to July 1999. It took until May 2006 to regain the 1980 level. From September 2011 to December 2015, it fell 39%. On 6 October 2026, GLD, a gold fund, was 22.9% below its January 2026 high.
Why is the gold price falling?
Gold falls when holding it costs more or demand weakens. Gold pays no interest. So when interest rates after inflation rise, holding gold costs more in lost interest. A stronger dollar and less buying by central banks or funds have also weighed on it. Our guide What Drives the Gold Price? tests each one.
Will the gold price go up?
The record cannot say. After gold's 10 calendar years with gains of 25% or more since 1971, the next year was higher 7 times out of 9. Five years later, gold was higher in 7 of 8 cases. Ten cases is a small sample, half of them from the 1970s.
Why is the gold price rising?
Gold rises when demand grows or when holding it costs less in lost interest. In 2025, gold rose 63%. That year, gold funds added 801 tonnes and central banks bought 863 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council. Our guide What Drives the Gold Price? covers each driver with data since 2016.
How long did gold take to recover after 1980?
Gold took 26 years to get back to its January 1980 average of $675 an ounce, in May 2006. After US inflation, the wait was 45 years. Gold's real price only passed its January 1980 level in February 2025. On the way, the real price fell 83%, to its low in April 2001.
DISCLAIMER: This article is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.