On 6 October 2026, the S&P 500 closed at 7,818.93, a record high. Its price history goes back to 1871. Since then, the index has fallen 20% or more from a record 13 times, using each month's average price. Every one of those falls was eventually made back.
The date of the next fall cannot be known in advance. History can show how often big falls have come and how long the index took to recover. This guide sets that out, then shows where the market stood in October 2026.
Will the stock market crash? The timing of the next crash cannot be known in advance, but history shows how often big falls have come. Since 1871, the S&P 500 and the index before it have fallen 20% or more from a record high 13 times. That is once every 12.0 years on average, using monthly average prices.
Falls of 10% or more have come more often. There were 23 since 1871, one every 6.8 years on average.
Deeper falls took longer to recover. The median wait to regain the old high was 2.0 years after a fall of 10% or more. After a fall of 20% or more, it was 5.4 years.
Deeper falls after a record were rarer. SPY (the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund) has daily prices from 1993. After a record close, it fell 10% or more within a year 26.7% of the time. It fell 20% or more only 9.5% of the time.
What counts as a stock market crash?
"Crash" has no official definition. So this guide uses three sizes of fall: 10%, 20% and 30%.
Investor.gov, the investor website of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, says a bear market "generally" means a fall of 20% or more over at least two months. Charles Schwab defines a correction as a fall of more than 10%, but less than 20%, from the most recent peak.
Here, every fall is measured from a record high, the highest price so far.
On the long history, that is the highest monthly average. On SPY, it is the highest daily close. The fall lasts until the price gets back to that record.
What Is a Drawdown? covers this measure in more depth.
"The stock market" here means the S&P 500, an index of 500 large US companies. What Is the S&P 500? explains how it works. Before 1957, the history uses the S&P Composite, the index that became the S&P 500.
How often has the S&P 500 fallen 10%, 20% and 30%?
The long history comes from Robert Shiller of Yale University. His data gives the index's average price for each month from January 1871.
We use the price alone, up to August 2026. It is not adjusted for inflation. It leaves out dividends.
Source: Robert Shiller, Yale; YX Insights
Chart 1 shows how far below its record the index stood each month. The deepest fall ran from September 1929 to June 1932, when the monthly price fell 84.8%. The second deepest ran from October 2007 to March 2009, at 50.8%.
Size of fall from a record | Number since 1871 | About one every | Median time from the high to the low | Median time to regain the high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
10% or more | 23 | 6.8 years | 1.2 years | 2.0 years |
20% or more | 13 | 12.0 years | 1.5 years | 5.4 years |
30% or more | 8 | 19.4 years | 2.6 years | 7.6 years |
Source: Robert Shiller, Yale; YX Insights
The table counts the falls. Since 1871, the index fell 10% or more from a record 23 times.
Of the 23 falls, 13 went to 20% or more. Eight reached 30% or more.
That works out at one fall of 10% or more every 6.8 years on average. A fall of 20% or more came every 12.0 years on average. A fall of 30% or more came every 19.4 years.
Monthly averages smooth out the worst days. In 2020, the monthly price fell 19.1% from its record, just short of 20%. On daily closes, SPY fell 33.7% from 19 February to 23 March 2020, with dividends counted.
How long does the stock market take to recover?
Source: Robert Shiller, Yale; YX Insights
Chart 2 shows each fall of 20% or more since 1871. Each bar shows how many years the index took to regain its record high. The label on the left gives the year of the high and the size of the fall.
The median wait was 5.4 years. Counting every fall of 10% or more, the median was 2.0 years.
The quickest was the fall that began in December 1961, which took 1.8 years. The longest followed 1929. The monthly price regained its September 1929 high only in September 1954, 25.0 years later.
Dividends shorten the wait. With dividends reinvested, the index regained its 1929 high in January 1945, after 15.3 years.
Measured from the low instead, the climb back is shorter. After falls of 20% or more, the median climb from the low back to the record took 2.7 years.
What do SPY's daily prices show since 1993?
SPY's daily closes give a sharper view of recent falls. Our daily prices for SPY start on 29 January 1993.
Since then, SPY fell 10% or more from a record 12 times, with dividends counted. Four reached 20% or more. Three of those reached 30% or more.
The three falls of 30% or more came in 2000 to 2002, 2007 to 2009 and 2020. They reached 47.5%, 55.2% and 33.7%.
The 2020 fall was the quickest of the three to recover. SPY was back at its record on 10 August 2020, 5.7 months after the peak.
For SPY's 12 falls of 10% or more, the median wait to regain the old high was 6.0 months. For the four falls of 20% or more, it was 40.8 months, about 3.4 years.
Where the market stood on 6 October 2026 and what followed past records
On 6 October 2026, the S&P 500 closed at 7,818.93, a record high. It was up 14.2% in 2026, from 6,845.50 at the end of 2025.
The index's deepest point in 2026 so far was 9.1% below its record, on 30 March. So up to 6 October, there had been no fall of 10% or more from a record in 2026.
Source: Robert Shiller, Yale; YX Insights
Chart 3 starts from every record high and looks at the next 12 months.
For SPY since 1993, a fall of 10% or more below the record followed 26.7% of the time. A fall of 20% or more followed 9.5% of the time. A fall of 30% or more followed 2.2% of the time.
On Shiller's monthly prices since 1871, the same shares were 20.8%, 5.2% and 0.9%. Monthly averages show fewer falls, because they smooth out the worst days.
These are past frequencies. They do not forecast the next fall.
Records often come close together. Of SPY's record closes in this count, 82.2% came within five trading days of the record before. So a single fall can be counted once for each record before it.
How to read crash forecasts and headlines
A few checks help:
Check the size. A fall of 10% is a different event from a fall of 20% or 30%. The table shows how much rarer the deeper falls have been.
Check the data. Daily closes show deeper falls than monthly averages. Counting dividends shortens the recovery.
Measure recovery two ways. The wait from the old high is longer than the climb from the low.
Keep single days apart. A big one-day fall is a different event from a fall from a record. Why Is the Stock Market Down Today? covers the S&P 500's worst single days.
Match the time frame. How to Invest in Stocks shows how often the market lost money over holding periods from one month to 20 years.
The S&P 500 has fallen 20% or more from a record once every 12.0 years on average since 1871. Each fall was made back, after a median of 5.4 years by monthly prices.
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Common questions about stock market crashes
Will the stock market crash in 2026?
Past data cannot say whether a crash will come. Up to 6 October 2026, the S&P 500 had no fall of 10% or more from a record that year. Its deepest point was 9.1% below its record, on 30 March. On 6 October, it closed at a record 7,818.93.
Will the stock market recover after a crash?
Every fall of 20% or more since 1871 was eventually made back, on Robert Shiller's monthly S&P 500 data. The median wait to regain the old high was 5.4 years. The longest followed 1929: 25.0 years on prices alone, or 15.3 years with dividends reinvested.
How often does the stock market crash?
Since 1871, the S&P 500 and the index before it have fallen 20% or more from a record 13 times, on monthly average prices. That is once every 12.0 years on average. Falls of 10% or more came 23 times. Falls of 30% or more came eight times.
What is the difference between a correction and a bear market?
A correction is a fall of more than 10%, but less than 20%, from the most recent peak, as Charles Schwab defines it. A bear market is a fall of 20% or more. Investor.gov, the US Securities and Exchange Commission's site for investors, adds that it generally lasts at least two months.
DISCLAIMER: This article is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.