On 26 October 2026 the 10 year Treasury yield closed at 5.00%. That is the annual return on a US government bond with ten years left to run. On 16 September 2026 it closed above 5.00% for the first time since 19 July 2007.
This guide shows how the yield has moved since 1962 and what it has done to mortgage rates, bond prices and share prices.
What is the 10 year Treasury yield? It is the annual return on a US government bond with ten years left to run, at that day's market price. It closed at 5.00% on 26 October 2026.
Bond prices fall when yields rise. TLT (the long-term Treasury bond ETF) fell 31.2% in 2022, with dividends counted, in a year the yield rose from 1.52% to 3.88%.
Across 2,900 weeks since April 1971 the 30-year mortgage rate averaged 1.77 percentage points above the 10 year yield. A percentage point is the simple difference between two rates.
Shares have no fixed response. In months when the yield rose by more than 0.25 percentage points, SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) gained a mean 2.99% a month from 2002 to 2014. From 2014 to 2026 it lost a mean 0.48% a month in those months.
What is the 10 year Treasury yield?
A Treasury is a bond the US government issues to borrow money. A yield is the annual return a buyer earns on a bond at its current market price. The 10 year Treasury yield is that return on a bond with ten years left before the government repays it.
Price and yield move in opposite directions. When buyers pay less for an existing bond, its fixed interest is a larger share of the price, so the yield rises. Bond prices and yields shows the arithmetic.
The US Treasury adjusts yields on bonds of different lengths to a fixed ten-year length, so each day is comparable. The Federal Reserve Board publishes the daily figure in its H.15 release.
The Fed does not set this yield. It sets a target range for the overnight rate between banks, as how the Fed sets rates explains.
The yield curve plots yields for bonds of every length, from months to thirty years. The 10 year yield is one point on the yield curve.
How has the 10 year yield moved since 1962?
The H.15 daily series has 16,189 readings from 2 January 1962 to 26 October 2026. Chart 1 plots them all.
Source: US Treasury; Federal Reserve Board (H.15)
The highest reading in the whole series is 15.84%, on 30 September 1981. The lowest is 0.52%, on 4 August 2020.
The yield ended 2021 at 1.52% and 2022 at 3.88%. Its highest close so far in 2026 is 5.31%, on 5 October.
We searched the whole series, 2 January 1962 to 26 October 2026, for closes above 5.00%. The last one before this autumn came on 19 July 2007. The next came on 16 September 2026.
Does the 10 year yield set mortgage rates?
Freddie Mac runs the Primary Mortgage Market Survey and publishes the 30-year fixed mortgage rate every Thursday. Our file holds 2,900 weekly readings from 2 April 1971 to 22 October 2026, each set against the 10 year yield on the same day.
Across all 2,900 weeks the mortgage rate averaged 1.77 percentage points above the yield. On 22 October 2026 the rate was 7.32% and the yield 4.96%, a gap of 2.36 percentage points.
Source: Freddie Mac; US Treasury; Federal Reserve Board (H.15)
Chart 2 shows the two moving together from 2019 to 2026. The mortgage rate reached its series low of 2.65% on 7 January 2021, when the yield was 1.08%. It reached 7.79%, the highest reading from 2019 to 2026, on 26 October 2023, when the yield was 4.86%.
From the low to the high is 146 weeks. The mortgage rate rose 5.14 percentage points over them. The yield rose 3.78. The gap between the two widened from 1.57 to 2.93 percentage points.
Freddie Mac changed how it collects the rate on 17 November 2022. It moved from surveying lenders to using loan applications. The gap averaged 1.71 percentage points before that date and 2.45 since.
The two averages sit on either side of the change, so the data cannot say how much of the difference comes from the method. Our explainer on why mortgage rates follow the 10 year yield covers the link in full.
Why would a higher yield change share prices?
Discounting turns a payment due later into a value today. It divides the payment by one plus the yield, once for each year of waiting. A payment of $100 due in ten years is worth $94.95 today at the August 2020 low of 0.52%. At 5.00% it is worth $61.39.
A higher yield can lower what a company's future profits are worth. That values no company, because profits and growth change too. So we tested what shares did.
We took the 10 year yield on the last trading day of each month. A "rise" is a monthly increase of more than 0.25 percentage points. A "fall" is a drop of more than 0.25. We set that threshold before running the test.
The window runs from 30 August 2002 to 30 September 2026, which gives 289 monthly changes. We compared them with monthly returns, dividends counted, on QQQ (the Nasdaq-100 ETF), SPY and TLT.
Chart 3 shows each fund's mean monthly return in rising and falling months.
Source: US Treasury; Federal Reserve Board (H.15); YX Insights price data
TLT fell in all 41 rising months, losing a mean 5.11%. It rose in all 43 falling months, gaining a mean 6.42%. So TLT moved opposite to the yield in all 84 months where the yield changed by more than 0.25 percentage points.
It holds at thresholds from 0.20 to 0.35. At 0.15, TLT fell in 72 of 73 rising months.
In 2022 the yield rose from 1.52% to 3.88%. TLT lost 31.2% with dividends counted. Our explainer on the 2022 Fed rate hikes covers that year.
Shares gave a different answer. SPY gained a mean 1.22% in rising months and lost a mean 1.72% in falling months. QQQ gained 1.92% and lost 1.61%. Over the whole window, shares did better in months when the yield rose than in months it fell.
That result changes when we split the window in two. The table splits the same months into two halves, 2002 to 2014 and 2014 to 2026.
Period | Months the yield rose | SPY mean in those months | Months the yield fell | SPY mean in those months | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Whole window (289 months) | 41 | +1.22% | 43 | -1.72% | 0.11 |
First half, September 2002 to August 2014 (144 months) | 20 | +2.99% | 24 | -2.86% | 0.31 |
Second half, September 2014 to September 2026 (145 months) | 21 | -0.48% | 19 | -0.29% | -0.12 |
Month-ends to 30 September 2026, dividends counted. A rise or fall is a monthly change in the 10 year yield of more than 0.25 points. Correlation is between the monthly yield change and SPY's monthly return. Source: US Treasury; Federal Reserve Board (H.15); YX Insights price data
From 2002 to 2014 SPY gained a mean 2.99% in rising months and lost a mean 2.86% in falling months. From 2014 to 2026 it lost in both, with means of -0.48% and -0.29%.
The correlation between the monthly yield change and SPY's return was 0.31 in the first half and -0.12 in the second. Correlation runs from -1 to 1. A value near 0 means no consistent link. The link was positive in the first half and near zero in the second.
What does this test leave out?
The test uses 289 monthly changes. The rising and falling groups hold 41 and 43 months. Each half-window group holds 19 to 24. Those are small samples.
The test measures a link between the yield and returns. It names no reason for the change after 2014. It does not explain why the yield rose to 5.00%. It makes no forecast.
The 10 year Treasury yield closed at 5.00% on 26 October 2026. Bond prices fell in every month it rose by more than 0.25 percentage points. The 30-year mortgage rate has averaged 1.77 percentage points above it.
Its link to share prices was positive from 2002 to 2014 and near zero from 2014 to 2026.
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Common questions about the 10 year Treasury yield
What is the 10 year Treasury yield today?
The 10 year Treasury yield closed at 5.00% on 26 October 2026. It changes every business day. The Federal Reserve Board publishes the daily figure, from US Treasury bond yields adjusted to a fixed ten-year length. The highest close so far in 2026 is 5.31%, on 5 October.
How far above the 10 year yield is the mortgage rate?
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has averaged 1.77 percentage points above the 10 year yield across 2,900 weeks since April 1971. The gap was 2.36 percentage points in the week to 22 October 2026. Our guide to why mortgage rates follow the 10 year yield gives the reasoning.
Does the Fed set the 10 year Treasury yield?
No. The Fed sets a target range for the overnight rate between banks, while the market price of Treasury bonds sets the 10 year yield each day. On 26 October 2026 the Effective Fed Funds Rate was 3.88% and the 10 year yield was 5.00%. Our guide to what the Fed Funds Rate is covers the overnight rate.
What is the highest the 10 year Treasury yield has been?
The highest reading is 15.84%, on 30 September 1981. That is the maximum of the 16,189 daily readings in the Federal Reserve Board series, which runs from 2 January 1962 to 26 October 2026. The lowest reading is 0.52%, on 4 August 2020.
DISCLAIMER: This article is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
