Hi YXI friends,

Welcome to the first major FOMC day of 2026. March, June, September, and December share updates on the Economic Projections summary, making these meetings more interesting and important than the other four.

It is Powell’s penultimate FOMC meeting as the chairman, but the final one where he would talk about the Dot Plot projections, too.

The market may not pay much attention to his personal stance because the Fed is unlikely to cut rates at its next two meetings. However, it is still interesting to see how the group as a whole projected inflation and growth outcomes for 2026-2027 amidst stagflation concerns.

As Kevin Warsh is not confirmed by the Senate (Senator Thom Tillis is blocking the vote until a Department of Justice probe into the Fed's building renovation costs is resolved), the final Chairman decision is uncertain. Historically, nominations could easily change before the final confirmation.

Powell has not revealed whether he would stay on the Board of Governors, which doesn’t expire until January 2028. But he could decide to stay on for one more meeting after the Chairmanship handover as well. If Warsh is not confirmed by 15 May 2026, Powell could technically remain as the FOMC Chair until a successor is seated.

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Please check out our glossary for definitions of acronyms, financial terms, and economic data.