Stocks earned slightly more than gold from 2005 to 2026, with dividends counted. $10,000 in stocks became $94,135. $10,000 in gold became $83,977.
The gap is small, but the two did not travel together. Gold was ahead in 11 of the 21 full calendar years, while stocks were ahead in the other 10. Gold also took much longer than stocks to get back to its old peak after its biggest drop.
Gold vs stocks: which earned more? From 31 December 2004 to 26 October 2026, stocks earned 10.82% a year and gold earned 10.24% a year. Gold means GLD (the gold bullion ETF). Stocks means SPY (the S&P 500 ETF).
Gold was ahead in 11 of the 21 full calendar years (2005 to 2025), while stocks were ahead in 10.
Gold's biggest drop from a peak was 45.6%, over 4.32 years. Stocks' was 55.2%, over 1.42 years. Getting back to the old peak took 8.94 years for gold and 4.85 years for stocks, counted from the day the peak was set.
Starting on any day and holding for 10 years, gold finished ahead of stocks in 13.3% of cases.
What do gold and stocks mean in this comparison?
We compare two exchange-traded funds (ETFs). An ETF is a fund whose shares trade on an exchange like a company's.
GLD holds gold bullion. Its expenses reduce its return. SPY holds the shares in the S&P 500, an index of large US companies. In this article, "gold" means GLD and "stocks" means SPY.
SPY pays dividends, which are cash payments from companies to shareholders. Its adjusted closing price adds them back as though reinvested. GLD pays none, so its closing price needs no adjustment. Both series are therefore total returns, before tax and dealing costs (the fees for trading).
How much did $10,000 in gold and in stocks become?
Stocks turned $10,000 into $94,135, a gain of 841.3%. Gold turned $10,000 into $83,977, a gain of 739.8%.
The annual rate is the single yearly return that would turn the starting sum into the ending sum. It was 10.82% for stocks and 10.24% for gold, a gap of 0.58 percentage points a year.
Source: YX Insights price data
Chart 1 shows the gold stake (orange) above the stock stake (blue) at 64.6% of the daily closes.
Gold's stake peaked at $113,219 on 29 January 2026, when the stock stake stood at $84,699. Stocks have been ahead at every close since 28 August 2026.
Gold built its lead early. Its first long run ended with a closing high (the highest close up to then) on 22 August 2011. Up to that date gold gained 321.4% and stocks gained 6.1%. From that date to 26 October 2026, gold gained 99.3% and stocks gained 786.9%.
Which did better in each calendar year?
A calendar year runs from January to December. Its return is the gain from the last close of the previous year to the last close of that year. The 21 full years are 2005 to 2025. 2026 is a part year, counted to 26 October.
Source: YX Insights price data
Chart 2 shows gold's return (orange) beside stocks' return (blue) for each year.
In 2026 to 26 October, gold is down 7.2% while stocks are up 13.1%.
Gold gained while stocks fell in one year, 2008. Gold rose 4.9% while stocks lost 36.8%. Gold fell while stocks rose in four years: 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2021. In 2013 gold lost 28.3% while stocks gained 32.3%.
Both fell in 2018 and 2022. Gold fell less each time. In 2018 gold lost 1.9% and stocks lost 4.6%. In 2022 gold lost 0.8% and stocks lost 18.2%. Our explainer on whether gold is a safe haven looks at this question.
What were the worst falls in gold and in stocks?
A fall is the drop from a closing high to a later closing low. We searched the whole window from 31 December 2004 to 26 October 2026 for the largest one in each fund.
A fund has regained its old high when it first closes at or above it. The time to regain runs from the date of the old high. Our explainer on what a drawdown is covers the measure.
Source: YX Insights price data
Chart 3 shows each fund's worst fall as a %, with the years from the old high until it came back.
Stocks fell 55.2% from 9 October 2007 to 9 March 2009. The fall took 1.42 years. Stocks regained the old high on 16 August 2012, 4.85 years after the peak.
Gold fell 45.6% from 22 August 2011 to 17 December 2015. The fall took 4.32 years. Gold regained the old high on 29 July 2020, 8.94 years after the peak.
On 26 October 2026, gold closed 25.8% below its highest close, set on 29 January 2026. That is smaller than the 45.6% fall above, so it does not change the worst-fall figures.
How did the volatility of gold and stocks compare?
Volatility measures how widely returns vary. We take the standard deviation (a standard measure of spread) of daily returns and scale it to a yearly figure.
Gold's volatility was 18.3% a year and stocks' was 18.9%. Weekly returns give 17.3% and 17.4%. Our explainer on what volatility is gives the definition.
Correlation measures how closely two series move together. A value of 1 means they move together every day, while 0 means no link. The correlation of daily returns between gold and stocks was 0.07.
Did the winner depend on the start date?
A rolling window starts on every trading day and ends the same number of years later, on the first trading day on or after that date. Chart 4 shows the share of windows in which gold finished ahead.
Source: YX Insights price data
Chart 4 shows gold finishing ahead less often as the window gets longer.
Gold led in 52.2% of 1-year windows, 42.5% of 3-year windows, 27.7% of 5-year windows and 13.3% of 10-year windows. The table gives the median (the middle value) and the worst annual rate in each fund for each window length.
Window | Windows | Gold finished ahead | Median annual rate, gold | Median annual rate, stocks | Worst annual rate, gold | Worst annual rate, stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1-year | 5,238 | 52.2% | 10.12% | 14.69% | -29.28% | -47.36% |
3-year | 4,738 | 42.5% | 10.16% | 12.06% | -15.77% | -17.38% |
5-year | 4,235 | 27.7% | 8.02% | 13.07% | -8.06% | -1.77% |
10-year | 2,977 | 13.3% | 4.38% | 12.78% | -1.28% | 6.03% |
Gold is GLD and stocks is SPY, from the 31 December 2004 close to the 26 October 2026 close. Windows start on every trading day and overlap. Source: YX Insights price data
For 10-year windows, the median annual rate was 4.38% for gold and 12.78% for stocks.
Rolling windows overlap, so they are not independent periods. The 10-year windows start between 31 December 2004 and 26 October 2016.
We also ran a second test. We invested at the last close of each year from 2004 to 2019 and held to 26 October 2026. Stocks earned the higher annual rate from all 16 start years. The gap ran from 0.28 percentage points for the 2019 start to 8.80 for the 2011 start.
What window did we test?
The window starts at the close of 31 December 2004. GLD began trading on 18 November 2004, so 2005 is its first full calendar year. The window ends at the close of 26 October 2026. It holds 5,489 daily closing prices over 21.8 years.
What does this comparison leave out?
GLD is a fund, not the metal itself. The test covers one pair of funds over one 21.8-year window. Other start dates give different results, as the rolling windows show. The test makes no forecast.
All figures are in nominal US dollars, which means no adjustment for inflation. There are no dealing costs, no tax and no currency conversion for a reader outside the United States.
Our explainer on what drives the gold price covers the forces behind gold itself. Our comparison of gold and Bitcoin sets gold against a different asset.
From 2005 to 2026, stocks finished 0.58 percentage points a year ahead of gold. Gold led for long stretches, but stocks earned more from every start year tested.
Get the next explainer
The Academy is free to read, here on the web. The Long Trend, our free weekly letter, comes by email.
Learn more with YX Insights
This explainer is part of the YX Insights Academy. Each one takes a single idea and checks it against real data.
The same approach runs through everything else we publish:
Systematic Portfolio: ready-made portfolios for Macro & Megacaps and for Commodities. We publish the holdings and every change.
Multi-model Signals: a daily long-or-flat call on every name we cover. Each call shows how strongly our four models agree.
Research: company deep dives, macro commentary and essays on how we test.
Good places to start on the website:
Academy: more explainers like this one.
Start here: get our free weekly letter by email.
Macro & Megacaps Systematic Portfolio and Commodities: the two portfolios in detail.
Track record: live results since 3 August 2026, plus the ten-year backtest.
Upgrade: get the Systematic Portfolio, Multi-model Signals and research in full.
Common questions about gold vs stocks
Is gold better than stocks?
Stocks earned more in this test. SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) returned 10.82% a year and GLD (the gold bullion ETF) returned 10.24%, from 31 December 2004 to 26 October 2026, with dividends counted. Gold was ahead in 11 of the 21 full calendar years, but stocks finished ahead overall.
Has gold ever beaten the stock market?
Yes. GLD (the gold bullion ETF) beat SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) in 11 of the 21 full calendar years from 2005 to 2025. From 31 December 2004 to 22 August 2011, gold gained 321.4% and stocks gained 6.1%. Gold finished ahead in 13.3% of 10-year holding periods.
Does gold do better than stocks when stocks fall?
Yes, in all three calendar years when stocks fell, gold did better. Stocks fell in 2008, 2018 and 2022. Gold rose 4.9% in 2008 while stocks lost 36.8%. In 2018 and 2022 both fell, but gold fell less. Our explainer on whether gold is a safe haven has more.
Is gold more volatile than stocks?
No. Volatility measures how widely returns vary. Gold's was 18.3% a year and stocks' was 18.9%, from daily returns between 31 December 2004 and 26 October 2026. Weekly returns give 17.3% and 17.4%. The correlation of daily returns, where 0 means no link, was 0.07.
How much is $10,000 put into gold in 2005 worth now?
$10,000 in GLD (the gold bullion ETF) at the close of 31 December 2004 was worth $83,977 on 26 October 2026, an annual rate of 10.24%. The same sum in SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) was worth $94,135. Gold's stake peaked at $113,219 on 29 January 2026.
DISCLAIMER: This article is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
