If You Invested $10,000 in Amazon 10 Years Ago: $60,562

$10,000 in Amazon at the end of October 2016 became $60,562 ten years later. The same money in the S&P 500 (an index of the 500 large US listed companies) became $41,959.

Those figures run from the close on 26 October 2016 to the close on 26 October 2026. They count dividends and stock splits, before costs and tax. Below, "the index" means SPY (the S&P 500 ETF, an exchange-traded fund that tracks it). Amazon finished $18,603 ahead. At its worst, the stake lost 56.1% from its highest value so far, while the index's worst such fall was 33.7%.

The chart shows what each $10,000 became, with the original $10,000 for scale.

$10,000 became $60,562. That is 6.06 times the money, or 19.74% a year.

The same $10,000 in the index became $41,959, which is 4.20 times the money, or 15.42% a year.

The Amazon stake passed $20,000 on 4 June 2018. The index stake first closed above $20,000 on 12 March 2021.

The higher return came with bigger swings. Volatility means how widely a price swings from day to day, scaled to a year. Amazon's was 33.14% a year, against 18.00% for the index.

Each bar is one calendar year, except 2016 (from 26 October) and 2026 (to 26 October), which are part years. Amazon beat the index in five of the eleven calendar periods and trailed in six.

Amazon lost money in two of them: the part year 2016, when it fell 8.8%, then 2022, when it fell 49.6%. The index also lost money in two, 2018 and 2022. In 2022 it fell 18.2%.

Two years carried a large share. Amazon returned 76.3% in 2020 and 80.9% in 2023. Those two compound to 3.19 times on their own.

Now remove 2020 and 2023 from the full decade of each series and compound the other nine periods. Amazon would have ended at 1.90 times what went in, while the index would have ended at 2.81 times. Amazon's lead over the index depends on those two years.

The chart lists every fall of 20% or more from a high inside the decade. A fall from a high is the drop from the highest closing value so far to a later low. Amazon had five and the index had two.

The worst fall ran from the high of 8 July 2021 to the low of 28 December 2022. The stake lost 56.1%, going from $45,362 to $19,893. It regained the high on 11 April 2024, which is 2.76 years after the high. We count the wait from the day of the high, so the fall is part of it.

The index fell less, but faster: 33.7% between 19 February and 23 March 2020. It was back at its high by 10 August 2020, which is 0.47 years after the high.

Amazon's five ran from 21.7% to 56.1%. The stake regained its old high after each one. The waits ranged from 0.15 years to 2.76 years. The index's two were 33.7% and 24.5%.

A fall from a high is not a loss on what went in. At the low of the 2021 to 2022 fall, the stake was still worth $19,893, almost twice the $10,000 that went in.

The stake did drop below $10,000 early on. Its lowest value was $8,742 on 14 November 2016. It closed below $10,000 on 65 of the 2,513 trading days, the last on 9 February 2017.

The index stake closed below $10,000 on 8 days, the last on 7 November 2016. Both counts run from the purchase at the close on 26 October 2016.

The stake buys at the close on 26 October 2016 and is still held on 26 October 2026. That window holds 2,513 trading days.

Both figures are total returns: price changes plus dividends, counted as though reinvested. Our price data records no cash dividend for Amazon in the window, so its return is all price change. Amazon's 20-for-1 stock split of June 2022 is already in the numbers.

We measure each fall from a previous high, using closing prices. We searched all 2,513 trading days for the worst one. Both series use daily closes on the same trading calendar.

Nothing is adjusted for inflation, so both figures are in nominal US dollars. There are no dealing costs, no tax and no currency conversion for a reader outside the United States.

We use Amazon here because the question names Amazon. The company was therefore picked after the outcome was already known.

We tested no other company. A page built the same way on a different name would start from a different outcome. Nothing here says anything about which companies will do well from here.

Amazon is one of the companies covered in our Multi-model Signals. Our post on investing $100 a month for 10 years runs the same decade for an index fund. Our post on $10,000 in the S&P 500 ten years ago covers the index on its own. The same question for Apple, Nvidia and Tesla has a post each.

In short: one company, over one ten-year window, chosen after the fact. $10,000 became $60,562, with a 56.1% fall on the way. The same money in the index became $41,959.

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$60,562 on 26 October 2026, from a purchase at the close on 26 October 2016. That counts the 2022 stock split, before any dealing costs or tax. It works out at 19.74% a year, against 15.42% for the S&P 500.

The same $10,000 in the index became $41,959 over the same days, so Amazon ended $18,603 ahead. Amazon's volatility (how widely the price swings from day to day, scaled to a year) was 33.14% a year against 18.00%. It beat the index in five of eleven calendar periods, which are calendar years except the part years 2016 and 2026.

No. The 20-for-1 split in June 2022 changed the number of shares and cut the price per share, but it did not change the value of the stake. Our figures are adjusted for it, so the $60,562 already includes the split.

56.1%, between a high on 8 July 2021 and a low on 28 December 2022. The stake went from $45,362 to $19,893. It regained the old high on 11 April 2024. The index's worst fall in the same window was 33.7%.

Yes, early on. The lowest value was $8,742 on 14 November 2016. The stake closed below $10,000 on 65 of the 2,513 trading days in the decade, the last on 9 February 2017. Both counts run from the purchase at the close on 26 October 2016.

DISCLAIMER: This article is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.