A $10,000 stake in Microsoft ten years ago would be worth $98,925. The same money in the S&P 500 (the index of 500 large US listed companies) would be worth $41,959. Both are valued on 26 October 2026, with dividends counted.
This post shows how the stake got there and how far it fell on the way. It also explains why one company over one decade is a narrow base for any wider conclusion.
If you had invested $10,000 in Microsoft 10 years ago, what would you have? $98,925 on 26 October 2026, counting dividends, before costs and tax. The same stake in the S&P 500 would be worth $41,959. We chose Microsoft because the question names it. That choice came after we knew the result, so it proves nothing about other companies.
Microsoft returned 25.76% a year over the decade. The index returned 15.42%.
The stake fell 37.1% from its high between 19 November 2021 and 3 November 2022. It took until 15 June 2023 to get back to that high.
Microsoft beat the index in six of the eleven calendar years here (two are part years), but trailed it in each of the last three.
What the stake became
Source: YX Insights price data (MSFT, SPY)
$10,000 became $98,925. That is 9.89 times the money, or 25.76% a year.
The same $10,000 in the index became $41,959, which is 4.20 times the money, or 15.42% a year. Microsoft therefore ended at 2.36 times the index.
The stake also moved more from day to day. Volatility means how widely a price swings from day to day, scaled to a year. Microsoft's was 27.71% a year, against 18.00% for the index.
The stake's highest value in the decade was $100,940 on 13 October 2026. The value on 26 October was 2.0% below that.
The years it came from
Source: YX Insights price data (MSFT, SPY)
A calendar year runs from 1 January to 31 December. The first and last years here are part years: 2016 runs from 26 October, while 2026 runs to 26 October.
Microsoft beat the index in six of the eleven calendar years and trailed in five. The five were the part year of 2016, then 2022, 2024, 2025 and the part year of 2026.
The index lost money in 2018 and 2022. Microsoft made 20.8% in 2018, while the index lost 4.6%. In 2022 Microsoft lost 28.0% and the index lost 18.2%. Microsoft lost money in one of the eleven years, the index in two.
The best stretch ran from 2019 to 2021. Microsoft returned 57.6%, 42.5% and 52.5% in those three years. The index returned 31.2%, 18.4% and 28.7%.
The most recent stretch went the other way. Microsoft returned 12.9% in 2024, 15.6% in 2025 and 10.8% in 2026 to 26 October. The index returned 24.9%, 17.7% and 13.1%.
Compounded across those three years, Microsoft gained 44.7% and the index gained 66.3%.
What two years contributed
Microsoft's two best calendar years were 2019 (57.6%) and 2023 (58.2%). Together they compound to 2.49 times.
Without them, the Microsoft stake would have ended at 3.97 times what went in. The index, which returned 1.66 times in those same two years, would have ended at 2.53 times.
Strip those two years out and Microsoft still ends ahead of the index.
The worst fall and the wait
Source: YX Insights price data (MSFT, SPY)
A fall is measured from a previous high. The time to recover is counted from that high, so it includes the fall itself. We searched every day in the decade for the worst fall.
The worst fall ran from the high of 19 November 2021 to the low of 3 November 2022. The stake dropped 37.1%, from $61,269 to $38,513. It closed back at the old high on 15 June 2023, which is 1.57 years after the high. From the low, the climb back took 224 calendar days.
The index fell less, but faster: 33.7% between 19 February and 23 March 2020. It was back at its high on 10 August 2020, which is 0.47 years after the high.
A second measure gives the same picture. The worst twelve months inside the decade cost the Microsoft stake 35.3%, from 3 November 2021 to 3 November 2022. The index lost 19.7% in its worst twelve months, from 28 December 2021 to 28 December 2022.
When the stake was below $10,000
It was below $10,000 only in the first six weeks. A fall from a high is a different thing from a loss on what you put in. At the bottom of the 2022 fall, the Microsoft stake was still worth $38,513, well above the original $10,000.
The stake's lowest value was $9,586 on 14 November 2016. It closed below $10,000 on 19 of the 2,513 trading days, the last of them on 6 December 2016. The index stake closed below $10,000 on 8 days, the last on 7 November 2016.
What a later start date changes
The first six weeks depend on where the ten years start. Moving the purchase one to five trading days later, to 27 October through 2 November 2016, changes the Microsoft end value to between $99,797 and $100,922. The index end value moves to between $42,071 and $42,759.
Microsoft finishes above the index in every one of those cases. The headline figure sits just under a round $100,000, which a start two trading days later passes.
How we measured it
The stake buys at the close on 26 October 2016 and is still held on 26 October 2026. That is 2,513 trading days.
Both figures are total returns. Dividends are counted as though they were reinvested. The comparison is against SPY (the S&P 500 ETF, an exchange-traded fund), bought on the same day with the same money.
Nothing here is adjusted for inflation, so both figures are in nominal US dollars. There are no dealing costs, no tax and no currency conversion for a reader outside the United States.
What this one example cannot tell you
We chose Microsoft because the question names Microsoft. We picked the company after we knew the outcome.
We tested no other company. A page built the same way on a different name starts from a different outcome. Our posts on Apple, Nvidia and Tesla use the same method. The S&P 500 version shows the index on its own.
A lump sum is also only one way to invest. Our worked example of investing $100 a month for ten years follows a different path through the same decade.
Our Multi-model Signals service covers Microsoft. This post uses nothing from that service. It reports past prices and says nothing about the next ten years.
This is one company over one ten-year window, chosen after the result: $10,000 became $98,925, with a 37.1% fall on the way. The same money in the index became $41,959.
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Common questions about a $10,000 stake in Microsoft
If I had invested $10,000 in Microsoft 10 years ago, what would it be worth?
It would be worth $98,925 on 26 October 2026, from a purchase at the close on 26 October 2016. That counts dividends, before any dealing costs or tax. It works out at 25.76% a year, or 9.89 times the money invested.
How does that compare with the S&P 500?
The same $10,000 in the index became $41,959 over the same days, or 15.42% a year. Microsoft ended at 2.36 times the index. Its price also swung more: volatility, meaning the day-to-day swing scaled to a year, was 27.71% against 18.00%.
What was Microsoft's worst fall in the last 10 years?
37.1%, measured from the stake's previous high of $61,269 on 19 November 2021 down to the low of 3 November 2022. The stake regained that high on 15 June 2023. At the bottom it was still worth $38,513, well above the original $10,000.
Did a Microsoft stake ever drop below what was put in?
Yes, but only early on. The lowest value was $9,586 on 14 November 2016. The stake closed below $10,000 on 19 of the 2,513 trading days, the last on 6 December 2016. A purchase made a few days later would change that count.
DISCLAIMER: This article is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
