$10,000 invested in Palantir when it first listed would be worth $209,305 on 26 October 2026. The same money in the S&P 500 (an index of 500 large US companies) would be worth $24,786. Both are valued on 26 October 2026, with any dividends counted.
Palantir began trading on 30 September 2020, so it has traded for 6.07 years, not ten. This post starts where the price history starts.
If you had invested $10,000 in Palantir at its 2020 listing, what would you have? $209,305 on 26 October 2026, counting dividends, before costs and tax. The window runs from Palantir's first close in our price data, 30 September 2020, because the stock has traded only since that date. The same stake in the S&P 500 would be worth $24,786.
Palantir returned 65.04% a year over the 6.07 years. The index returned 16.13%.
The stake fell 84.6% from its peak value between 27 January 2021 and 27 December 2022. It took until 3 October 2024 to get back to that peak.
Palantir beat the index in four of the seven calendar years, counting 2020 and 2026 as part years. It trailed in 2021, 2022 and 2026.
How we measured it
Palantir came to market through a direct listing. Its annual report for 2020 says the company completed a direct listing of its shares on the New York Stock Exchange on 30 September 2020. The report is filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. A direct listing has no underwriters' book-building and no initial offer price.
The same filing says no public market existed before that date. Palantir's prospectus adds that a direct listing has no pricing round before trading starts. No close exists before 30 September 2020, so a ten-year window is not possible.
The stake buys at the first close in our price data, $9.50 on 30 September 2020. It is still held on 26 October 2026, when the close was $198.84. That is 1,525 trading days.
Both figures are total returns, meaning any dividends count as though reinvested. Our price data records no dividend for Palantir, so its figure is the price change alone. The comparison is against SPY (the S&P 500 ETF, a fund that trades like a share), bought on the same day with the same money.
A fall is measured from the stake's previous peak value. The time to get back is counted from that peak, so it includes the fall itself. Every "worst" and "highest" figure below was searched over the whole window, 30 September 2020 to 26 October 2026.
The first and last calendar years are part years. 2020 runs from 30 September, while 2026 runs to 26 October. Nothing is adjusted for inflation, so both figures are in nominal US dollars. There are no dealing costs and no tax.
Moving the purchase one to five trading days later changes Palantir's end value to between $198,840 and $220,199. The index's moves to between $24,359 and $24,864. Palantir finishes ahead in every case.
What the stake became
Source: YX Insights price data (PLTR, SPY)
$10,000 became $209,305. That is 20.93 times the money, or 65.04% a year.
The same $10,000 in the index became $24,786, which is 2.48 times the money, or 16.13% a year. Palantir therefore ended at 8.44 times the index.
The stake also moved far more from day to day. Volatility means how widely a price swings from day to day, scaled to a year. Palantir's was 68.31% a year, against 16.54% for the index.
The stake's highest value in the window was $220,053 on 9 October 2026. The value on 26 October was 4.9% below that.
The years it came from
Source: YX Insights price data (PLTR, SPY)
Palantir beat the index in four of the seven calendar years and trailed in three. The three were 2021, 2022 and 2026. The chart shows each year's return. 2020 and 2026 are part years.
The index lost money in one period, 2022, when it lost 18.2%. Palantir lost money in two. It lost 22.7% in 2021, a year when the index gained 28.7%. It lost 64.7% in 2022.
The gains came in the other years. Palantir returned 147.9% in the part year of 2020, then 167.4% in 2023, 340.5% in 2024 and 135.0% in 2025. The index returned 12.1%, 26.2%, 24.9% and 17.7% in the same periods.
In the part year of 2026 Palantir returned 11.9% and the index returned 13.1%.
How much did two years carry?
Palantir's two best calendar years were 2024 (340.5%) and 2023 (167.4%). Together they compound to 11.78 times.
Without them, the Palantir stake would have ended at 1.78 times what went in. In those same two years the index grew 1.58 times. Without them it would have ended at 1.57 times the money.
Strip them out and Palantir still ends ahead of the index, but by a far smaller margin.
The worst fall and the wait
Source: YX Insights price data (PLTR, SPY)
The chart shows the worst fall from a peak value and the wait to recover. The worst fall ran from the high of 27 January 2021 to the low of 27 December 2022. The stake dropped 84.6%, from $41,053 to $6,316. That high came 119 days after the purchase.
The stake closed back at the old high on 3 October 2024, which is 3.68 years after the high. From the low, the climb back took 646 calendar days. A stake that loses 84.6% needs a gain of 550% to return to where it started.
The index fell 24.5% between 3 January and 12 October 2022. It was back at its high on 13 December 2023, which is 1.94 years after the high.
A second measure gives the same picture. The worst twelve months inside the window cost the Palantir stake 74.3%, from 23 September 2021 to 23 September 2022. The index lost 19.7% in its worst twelve months, from 28 December 2021 to 28 December 2022.
Did the stake ever fall below $10,000?
It did, for a long stretch. A fall from a peak is a different thing from a loss on what you put in. At the bottom of the 2022 fall, the Palantir stake was worth $6,316, which is 36.8% below the original $10,000.
The stake closed below $10,000 on 235 of the 1,525 trading days, the last of them on 16 May 2023. The index stake closed below $10,000 on 5 days, the last on 2 November 2020.
What this one example cannot tell you
We use Palantir here because the question names Palantir. The company was therefore picked after the outcome was already known. We tested no other company. A page built the same way on a different name starts from a different outcome.
Our posts on Apple, Nvidia, Tesla and the S&P 500 use the same method over ten years. This post reports past prices and says nothing about the next six years.
For the same idea with a monthly deposit instead of one lump sum, read what happens if you invest $100 a month for 10 years.
In summary: one company, over the 6.07 years since its listing, chosen after the fact. $10,000 became $209,305, with an 84.6% fall on the way. The same money in the index became $24,786.
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Common questions about a $10,000 stake in Palantir
If I had invested $10,000 in Palantir at its listing, what would it be worth?
$209,305 on 26 October 2026, from a purchase at the first close on 30 September 2020. That is before any dealing costs or tax. It works out at 65.04% a year, or 20.93 times the money. The same stake in the S&P 500 would be worth $24,786.
How long has Palantir been public?
Palantir has been public for 6.07 years, since 30 September 2020, when it completed a direct listing of its shares on the New York Stock Exchange. No public market existed before that date, so no ten-year price history exists. The stock has traded for fewer than seven years.
Did Palantir do better than the index after its listing?
Palantir's $10,000 became $209,305, against $24,786 for the S&P 500 over the same days. Palantir ended at 8.44 times the index, with volatility of 68.31% a year against 16.54%. Palantir trailed the index in 2021, 2022 and the part year of 2026.
What was the biggest loss from a peak for a Palantir holder?
The stake fell 84.6% from its peak value of 27 January 2021 to its low of 27 December 2022. A fall of this kind, measured from the highest earlier value, is called a drawdown. The stake regained the peak on 3 October 2024, which is 3.68 years later. What is a drawdown explains the measure.
DISCLAIMER: This article is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
