A $10,000 stake in QQQ (the Nasdaq-100 ETF) is now worth $64,468. The stake was bought ten years ago. An ETF, or exchange-traded fund, is one share that holds a basket of shares. The same money in SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) is worth $41,959. The S&P 500 is an index of 500 large US companies. Both values are for 26 October 2026, with dividends counted.
We measure the worst stretch of the QQQ stake as a fall from a high: the drop from the stake's highest value so far to its lowest value after that.
If you had invested $10,000 in QQQ 10 years ago, what would you have? $64,468 on 26 October 2026, counting dividends, before costs and tax. The same stake in the S&P 500 would be worth $41,959. QQQ is in this post because the question names it, so the fund was picked after the outcome was known.
QQQ returned 20.49% a year over the decade. The S&P 500 returned 15.42%.
The QQQ stake fell 35.1% from its 27 December 2021 high to its 3 November 2022 low. It took until 13 December 2023 to get back to that high.
Without QQQ's two best calendar years, 2020 and 2023, the QQQ stake ends at 2.80 times the money. The S&P 500 stake ends at 2.81 times.
What is QQQ?
QQQ tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index, which holds the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq. Invesco's own fund page says so. The page also says the index resets its weights every quarter and reviews its members every year. We read that page on 27 October 2026.
What did $10,000 in QQQ become?
Source: YX Insights price data (QQQ, SPY)
The chart shows each stake on 26 October 2026, with the original $10,000 for scale.
The QQQ stake is 6.45 times the money, or 20.49% a year. The S&P 500 stake is 4.20 times the money, or 15.42% a year. QQQ therefore ended at 1.54 times the S&P 500.
The QQQ stake also moved more from day to day. Volatility means how widely a price swings from day to day, scaled to a year. QQQ's was 22.64%, against 18.00% for the S&P 500.
The QQQ stake peaked at $68,764 on 6 October 2026. The value on 26 October was 6.25% below that peak.
Which calendar years did the gain come from?
Source: YX Insights price data (QQQ, SPY)
The chart shows each fund's return in every calendar year, the period from 1 January to 31 December. 2016 runs from 26 October and 2026 to 26 October, so both are part years.
QQQ beat the S&P 500 in eight of the eleven periods and trailed in three. The three were part-year 2016, 2021 and 2022.
The best year was 2020, when QQQ returned 48.6% and the S&P 500 returned 18.4%.
The latest years also favoured QQQ. It returned 25.6% in 2024, 20.8% in 2025 and 16.3% in 2026 to 26 October. The S&P 500 returned 24.9%, 17.7% and 13.1%.
Both lost money in 2018 and 2022. The calendar-year 2022 return was a loss of 32.6% for QQQ, against 18.2% for the S&P 500.
How much of QQQ's gain came from two years?
QQQ's two best calendar years were 2020 (48.6%) and 2023 (54.9%). Together they multiply a stake by 2.30. The S&P 500 multiplied a stake by 1.49 across those same two years.
Without those two years, the QQQ stake would have ended at 2.80 times what went in. The S&P 500 stake would have ended at 2.81 times. Those two years supplied the whole gap.
How far did the QQQ stake fall in its worst stretch?
Source: YX Insights price data (QQQ, SPY)
The chart shows each fund's largest fall from a high between 2021 and 2023, with the time each stake took to get back to its old high.
The stake's value dropped from $35,498 on 27 December 2021 to $23,030 on 3 November 2022, a fall of 35.1%. It closed back at the old high on 13 December 2023. That is 1.96 years after the high. From the low, the climb back took 405 calendar days.
The S&P 500 stake fell 24.5% over the same window, from $24,578 on 3 January 2022 to $18,557 on 12 October 2022. It got back to its old high on the same day as the QQQ stake, 13 December 2023.
This fall began in December 2021, so it differs from the calendar-year 2022 loss of 32.6%.
Over the whole decade, QQQ's worst fall is this one. The S&P 500's worst was 33.7% between 19 February and 23 March 2020. In that fall QQQ dropped 28.6%, so the order reversed in the later one.
Did the stake ever fall below $10,000?
It did, but only in the first six weeks. At the bottom of the QQQ fall, the stake was still worth $23,030, against $19,309 for the S&P 500 stake on the same day. Both were above the original $10,000.
Over the whole decade, the QQQ stake's lowest value was $9,600, on 4 November 2016. It closed below $10,000 on 23 of the 2,513 trading days, the last of them on 7 December 2016. The S&P 500 stake closed below $10,000 on 8 days, the last on 7 November 2016.
Does the start date change the result?
Moving the purchase one to five trading days later, to 27 October through 2 November 2016, changes the QQQ end value to between $64,764 and $66,260. The S&P 500 end value moves to between $42,071 and $42,759. QQQ finishes above the S&P 500 in every one of those cases.
How did we measure it?
The stake buys at the close on 26 October 2016 and is still held on 26 October 2026. That is 2,513 trading days.
Both figures are total returns, which count dividends as though they were reinvested. The S&P 500 comparison is SPY, bought on the same day with the same money. Nothing is adjusted for inflation, so both figures are in nominal US dollars. There are no dealing costs, no tax and no currency conversion.
The time to get back to a high is counted from that high, so it includes the fall itself.
Every "worst", "highest" and "lowest" figure was searched over the whole decade, 26 October 2016 to 26 October 2026, unless the text names a narrower window. We repeated the 2021 to 2023 search over three other spans. The fall and its dates were the same each time.
What does this result not show?
We use QQQ here because the question names QQQ. The fund was therefore picked after the outcome was already known. We tested no other fund.
A lump sum is also only one way to invest. Our worked example of investing $100 a month for ten years follows a different path.
Our posts on Apple and Nvidia use the same method. The S&P 500 version shows the index on its own. Our post on the S&P 500, a global index and the Nasdaq-100 sets the indices side by side. Our explainer on what an ETF is covers the term.
Summary
$10,000 in QQQ became $64,468, against $41,959 in the S&P 500. The QQQ stake fell 35.1% from its 27 December 2021 high to its 3 November 2022 low. It took until 13 December 2023 to recover. Without the two best years, 2020 and 2023, the two stakes end level.
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Common questions about a $10,000 stake in QQQ
If I had invested $10,000 in QQQ 10 years ago, what would it be worth?
The stake would be worth $64,468 on 26 October 2026, from a purchase at the close on 26 October 2016. That counts dividends, before any dealing costs or tax. It works out at 20.49% a year, or 6.45 times the money. The same stake in the S&P 500 would be worth $41,959.
How does QQQ compare with the S&P 500 over 10 years?
QQQ ended ahead. The same $10,000 in SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) became $41,959 over the same days, or 15.42% a year. QQQ ended at 1.54 times the S&P 500. QQQ's daily price moves were also wider: 22.64% a year against 18.00%.
How much did QQQ fall in 2022?
The QQQ stake fell 35.1% from its 27 December 2021 high to its 3 November 2022 low. The calendar-year 2022 return was a loss of 32.6%. Over the same window the S&P 500 stake fell 24.5%. Both closed back at their old highs on 13 December 2023.
Did a QQQ stake ever drop below what was put in?
Yes, early on. The lowest value was $9,600 on 4 November 2016. The stake closed below $10,000 on 23 of the 2,513 trading days, the last on 7 December 2016. Buying one to five trading days later gives end values of $64,764 to $66,260.
DISCLAIMER: This article is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
