Hi YXI friends,
Welcome to YX Insights' Multi-model Signals ("MS"), our daily systematic briefing. From today it comes in two parts.
The portfolio is the book we actually hold. It is re-optimised every Monday, with exits during the week from assets that turned to Flat in Multi-model Signals. You can see the weights and every change as they happen.
The signal board is the wider read behind it: four independent models score every name under coverage, spanning equity indices, bonds, crypto and megacap equities.
Keep the two apart as you read. A name can be long on the board without being in the book, and every portfolio holding is unleveraged.
Coverage
Macro Assets (16): SPY, QQQ, IWM, EFA, EEM, SOXX, IGV, XLK, XLF, XLC, XLV, BTC, TLT, IEF, HYG, UUP
Magnificent 7 (7): AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA
Megacaps (40): ADBE, AMAT, AMD, ANET, ASML, AVGO, CDNS, CRM, CRWD, CSCO, DUOL, ETN, HUBS, INTC, INTU, KLAC, LMT, LRCX, MDB, MRVL, MU, NET, NFLX, NOW, OKTA, ORCL, PANW, PLTR, QCOM, RKLB, SNOW, SNPS, STX, TSM, TTD, TXN, UBER, VRT, VST, ZS
We will continue to add new names, expanding across equities, crypto, commodities, rates, and FX.
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
1. The Portfolio Today
MM — Macro & Megacaps · target book for Tue 11 Aug
10 holdings · 77% invested · 23% cash
XLF 11.6% HYG 11.6% EEM 9.2%
NVDA 9.0% IGV 8.1% CSCO 8.1%
ANET 5.1% PANW 4.9% SNOW 4.7%
OKTA 4.5%
No change since the last book.
Nothing has changed since the Mon 10 Aug re-optimisation.
Next re-optimisation: Mon 17 Aug

2. Multi-model Signals of All Tickers
Multi-model Signals: Today's Changes
SNOW: sized to 2x (long)
UBER: turned long
Book posture: 44 long · 19 flat · 63 names covered.

3. Position History

4. Multi-model Signal Individual Comments
Macro Assets
SPY (Long) — The model is long. The recent drawdown reads as washed-out and backs the position, with the change in credit spreads leaning supportive too. The seven-month uptrend and constructive regime add to the case. Against that, momentum in growth and value stocks leans bearish, and oil weakness adds a modest drag.
QQQ (Long) — The model is long. Volatility and correlation with US large-caps both back the position, and the two-month uptrend and constructive regime support holding. Against that, big-cap tech volatility leans bearish, and oil weakness adds a drag. Stretched high-yield credit also leans the other way.
IWM (Long) — The model is long. Correlation with US large-caps and small-cap volatility both back the position. The year-long uptrend, the trend in small-caps and the recent drawdown add to the case, and the regime is constructive. Against that, price looks stretched and leans bearish.
EFA (Long) — The model is long. Correlation with US large-caps is supportive, and volatility is helping. The five-month uptrend and constructive regime back the hold, and a modest drawdown reads as washed out. Against that, global bond momentum leans bearish, and developed ex-US momentum looks stretched, both arguing for a little caution.
EEM (Long) — The model is long. Widening credit spreads over the past month are supportive, and the seven-month uptrend and constructive regime back the hold. Against that, the emerging-market trend and oil softness lean bearish. The recent return tilt and softer global equities add to that caution. On balance the counter-factors argue for some care.
SOXX (Flat) — The model is flat. Oil weakness leans bearish, and the defensive regime keeps us out. Correlation with US large-caps and the trend in semiconductors add to the caution. On the other side, the seven-month uptrend, volatility and bitcoin momentum lean bullish and make the case to get back in.
IGV (Long) — The model is long. The recent drawdown looks washed out, and risk-adjusted returns over the past few months are supportive. Growth-stock strength is helping, and global bonds are firm. The five-month uptrend and constructive regime back the hold too. Gold weakness reads as mean-reversion and also leans our way, so the factors here line up with the position.
XLK (Flat) — The model is flat. Oil's weakness over the past three months leans bearish, and the defensive regime keeps us out. The recent return and correlation with US large-caps add to the caution, and price looks stretched relative to trend. On the other side, the two-month uptrend and the recent pullback lean bullish and make the case to step back in.
XLF (Long) — The model is long. Inflation-linked bond momentum backs the position, and the ten-month uptrend and constructive regime support holding. Against that, strength in growth stocks, US large-caps and big-cap tech all lean bearish. Volatility adds a further note of caution.
XLC (Flat) — The model is flat. Risk-adjusted returns over the past three months lean supportive of a long, but we are on the sidelines. The seven-month downtrend and the defensive regime keep us out. Softness in Treasuries adds to the caution, and big-cap tech momentum leans bearish. On the other side, the risk-adjusted read, bitcoin and correlation with US large-caps all lean bullish and make the case to get back in.
XLV (Long) — The model is long. Global equity strength over the past three months backs the position, and gold's move is reading as supportive here too. The upward trend of the past two months and the constructive regime add to the case. Correlation with US large-caps is also leaning our way. Against that, bitcoin's recent strength leans bearish, and the yield curve adds a modest drag.
BTCUSD (Long) — The model is long. Softer short-term rates support the position, and wider credit spreads lean the same way. The market regime is constructive. Against that, global equity momentum leans bearish, and softness in gold and the yen adds to the caution. The trend over the past five months is downwards, which is the main drag.
TLT (Flat) — The model is flat. Dollar and oil softness both lean us out, and bitcoin momentum adds to the drag. Wider credit spreads point the same way. The seven-month downtrend and defensive regime reinforce staying on the sidelines. Against that, subdued volatility leans bullish. Being out is about risk control; this name has a history of sharp rebounds from washed-out levels, so we would not chase weakness either.
IEF (Flat) — The model is flat. The reads are genuinely thin here, so there is little to lean on either way. The two-month downtrend and defensive regime keep us on the sidelines. Being out is about risk control; this name has a history of sharp rebounds from washed-out levels, so we would not chase weakness either.
HYG (Long) — The model is long. Firmer high-yield volatility is supportive, and the ten-month uptrend and constructive regime back the hold. Against that, several factors lean bearish and argue for caution: the yield-curve read, gold and global bond momentum. Price also looks stretched here, adding to that other side.
UUP (Flat) — The model is flat. Dollar momentum looks stretched and leans us out, whilst firmer Chinese equities argue the same way. The defensive regime adds to the caution. Against that, several factors lean bullish and make the case to get back in: subdued volatility, and strength in developed ex-US, emerging-market and the five-month uptrend. Being out here is about risk control; this name has a history of sharp rebounds from washed-out levels, so we would not chase weakness either.
Magnificent 7
AAPL (Long) — The model is long. The yield-curve percentile over the past year is supportive, and US large-cap momentum over the past three months backs the position. The upward trend over the past two months and the constructive market regime lean the same way. Against that, risk-adjusted returns over the past three months look stretched and lean bearish. Investment-grade credit softness over the past month and credit spreads lean the same way.
AMZN (Long) — The model is long. Dollar softness backs the position, the five-month trend is upwards and the regime is constructive. Against that, large-cap momentum leans bearish and price looks stretched over the past few months. Firmness in oil and the correlation with large-caps add to the caution. The counter-factors lean the other way, but the trend keeps us in.
GOOGL (Flat) — The model is flat. Softness in inflation-linked bonds and US bonds backs the sidelines stance, and the flattening yield curve leans the same way. The name's own volatility and value momentum add to the caution, and the regime is defensive. Against that, the two-month trend is upwards, which is the case to get back in.
META (Long) — The model is long. The recent drawdown looks washed out, and the downside/upside tilt in recent returns backs the position. Firmness in high-yield credit leans supportive, and the five-month trend is upwards. Against that, firmness in oil and the name's own volatility lean bearish, and the regime is defensive.
MSFT (Long) — The model is long. The correlation with large-caps backs the position, along with firmness in high-yield credit. The seven-month trend is upwards and the regime is constructive. Against that, volatility and softness in oil lean bearish. This name has a history of sharp rebounds, so we are comfortable staying in.
NVDA (Long) — The model is long. The seven-month trend is upwards, and softness in oil lends some support. Against that, big-cap tech and growth momentum look stretched and lean bearish. Price itself looks stretched, and the shift in the yield curve leans bearish too. The defensive regime is a further offset.
TSLA (Long) — The model is long. The tilt in recent returns and the drawdown both look washed out and lean bullish, and softness in oil supports the same side. The constructive regime helps too. Against that, the two-month trend is downwards. Recent volatility and correlation with US large-caps lean bearish.
Megacaps
ADBE (Flat) — The model is flat. The five-month trend has been upwards and the regime is constructive, but the model is holding off. On the bullish side, the recent drawdown looks washed out and momentum in global equities and short-term rates reads supportively. These are the case to get back in. Against the long, the trend looks stretched versus its recent path and volatility leans bearish.
AMAT (Long) — The model is long. Correlation with US large-caps over the past three months is supportive. The upward trend over the past seven months and the constructive market regime back the position, and high-yield credit adds a modest tailwind. Against that, bitcoin momentum over the past three months leans bearish. Volatility over the same window leans the other way too.
AMD (Long) — The model is long. The recent drawdown looks washed out, and short-dated Treasury momentum backs the position. The five-month trend is upwards and the regime is constructive. Against that, softness in investment-grade and long bonds leans bearish, and firmness in oil adds to the caution. This name has a history of sharp rebounds from washed-out levels, so we are comfortable staying in.
ANET (Long) — The model is long. High-yield credit over the past week is supportive, and the upward trend over the past year and the constructive market regime back the position. Against that, price looks stretched and the trend versus its average leans bearish on mean-reversion grounds. Growth-stock momentum over the past week and the momentum read lean the same way.
ASML (Long) — The model is long. The yield curve backs the position, and the downside/upside tilt in recent returns leans supportive. The seven-month trend is upwards and the regime is constructive. Against that, the name's own returns and risk-adjusted returns look stretched over the past few months, and the clean run higher leans bearish on a mean-reversion basis.
AVGO (Long) — The model is long. Softness in long bonds backs the position, the year-long trend is upwards and the regime is constructive. Against that, high-yield credit and value momentum lean bearish. Volatility and a stretched price over the past couple of weeks add to the caution. The counter-factors lean the other way, but the trend keeps us in.
CDNS (Long) — The model is long. Its correlation with US large-caps looks washed out and supports the hold, and softer volatility and tighter credit spreads lean the same way. Recent high-yield credit momentum adds a little support, and the regime is constructive. Against that, weakness in oil leans bearish, and the five-month trend is downwards.
CRM (Long) — The model is long. The five-month trend is upwards and the regime is constructive, which back the hold. Against that, several reads lean bearish: the trend versus the moving average and risk-adjusted returns both look stretched, realised volatility is elevated, and recent momentum in the yen and big-cap tech weighs on the name. The picture is mixed, but the trend and regime keep us in.
CRWD (Long) — The model is long. Firmness in global equities backs the position, along with credit spreads, and the two-month trend is upwards with a constructive regime. Against that, the correlation with large-caps leans bearish, and the run higher in the name itself looks stretched. The reads here are mixed, but the trend keeps us in.
CSCO (Long) — The model is long. Strength in the yen and the shape of the yield curve back the hold, and the year-long trend has been upwards. Against that, the trend sits stretched versus its recent path, and softness in US bonds leans bearish. Correlation with US large-caps and the defensive regime add to the caution.
ETN (Long) — The model is long. The recent drawdown looks washed out, and momentum in high-yield credit reads supportively. Credit spreads and the two-month upward trend sit on the same side, alongside a constructive regime. Against that, the trend looks stretched versus its recent path, and softness in investment-grade credit leans bearish.
HUBS (Long) — The model is long. Oil momentum over recent months looks washed out and supportive, and global bond and short-term rates momentum lean the same way. The trend over the past five months is upwards, keeping us in. Against that, the trend versus its recent path and correlation with US large-caps lean bearish, and the defensive market regime adds to that caution.
INTC (Long) — The model is long. Realised volatility is supportive, and growth-stock momentum over the past month backs the position. The upward trend over the past year and the constructive market regime lean the same way. Against that, US large-cap momentum over the past three months leans bearish. Oil softness over the same window and the yield curve lean the same way.
INTU (Flat) — The model is flat. The trend over the past year is downwards, and volatility over the past month leans the same way, keeping us on the sidelines. Against that, the counter-factors lean bullish and make the case to get back in. The level of the yield curve and credit spreads are constructive, oil momentum over recent months looks washed out, and the trend versus its recent path is supportive. The constructive market regime adds to that side.
KLAC (Long) — The model is long. The trend over the past seven months is upwards, keeping us in the name. That said, the factors here lean bearish. Growth-stock and US large-cap momentum both look stretched over the past week, and volatility over the past month adds to the caution. The three-month return looks stretched too, and the defensive market regime cuts the same way.
LRCX (Flat) — The model is flat. The bulk of the factors lean bearish, keeping us on the sidelines. Three-month volatility, correlation with US large-caps, and gold momentum over the past week all sit on that side. Big-cap tech momentum over the past fortnight adds to the drag. Against that, the trend over the past seven months is upwards and the market regime is constructive, both of which make the case to get back in, with short-term rates momentum leaning mildly bullish as well.
MDB (Long) — The model is long. The trend over the past seven months is upwards and the market regime is constructive, both of which keep us in the name. That said, the factors here lean bearish. Risk-adjusted returns over the past three months and the downside tilt in recent returns both look stretched. Short-term volatility and correlation with US large-caps add to the caution.
MRVL (Flat) — The model is flat. Oil momentum over the past three months is soft and leans bearish. Investment-grade credit adds to the drag, and volatility over the past three months leans the same way. The downward trend over the past two months keeps us on the sidelines. Against that, the constructive market regime is the case to get back in.
MU (Long) — The model is long. Credit spreads sit on the supportive side, and the seven-month trend remains upwards. Against that, correlation with US large-caps and the recent return both look stretched and lean bearish. Momentum in oil and gold adds to that caution. The defensive regime is a further offset.
NET (Long) — The model is long. The seven-month trend is upwards and the regime is constructive. That said, the strength in Cloudflare looks stretched at both the shorter and longer horizons and leans bearish. Recent volatility and the tilt in returns lean the same way. The reads on the other side are the ones to watch.
NFLX (Long) — The model is long. The recent drawdown looks washed out, and correlation with US large-caps reads supportively. The constructive market regime sits on the same side. Against that, the seven-month trend has been downwards, and softness in growth stocks and global bonds leans bearish alongside volatility. The reads are mixed here.
NOW (Flat) — The model is flat. Softness in longer Treasuries and firmness in short Treasuries weigh here, and the recent downside/upside tilt adds to the drag. The defensive regime sits on the same side. Against that, strength in big-cap tech and global equities leans bullish, and the five-month trend is upwards, which together make the case to get back in.
OKTA (Long) — The model is long. Treasury momentum over recent months is supportive, and price looks washed out over the past three months, both of which back the hold. The trend over the past five months is upwards and the market regime is constructive, adding to that side, with small-cap momentum leaning mildly bullish. Against that, the one-month return and the trend versus its recent path lean bearish.
ORCL (Flat) — The model is flat. The five-month trend is downwards and the regime is defensive, and the recent drawdown leans bearish. Against that, momentum in value stocks, inflation-linked bonds and short Treasuries all lean bullish. Softer volatility leans that way too, so the case to get back in is building on the sidelines.
PANW (Long) — The model is long. Strength in big-cap tech and small-caps supports the hold, and the ten-month trend is upwards. Against that, three-month volatility leans bearish, and softness in gold and bitcoin adds to the caution. The defensive regime also sits on the cautious side.
PLTR (Long) — The model is long. The ten-month trend is upwards and the regime is constructive. Against that, the trend cleanliness looks stretched and leans bearish. The shift in the yield curve leans bearish, with gold and high-yield credit momentum adding to the caution.
QCOM (Flat) — The model is flat. The defensive market regime and the downward trend over the past two months keep us on the sidelines, and oil softness over the past three months leans bearish. Against that, the counter-factors lean bullish and make the case to get back in. Global equity and growth-stock momentum over the past month lean that way. Long bond momentum and correlation with US large-caps over the past three months lean bullish too.
SNOW (Long) — The model is long. The trend over the past two months is upwards and the market regime is constructive, both of which keep us in the name. The feature reads are light here, so the trend and regime are doing the work.
SNPS (Flat) — The model is flat. Realised volatility and the recent monthly return lean bearish and sit behind the stance, and the five-month trend is downwards. Against that, the correlation with US large-caps looks washed out, volatility is easing, and high-yield credit momentum firms up. The regime is also constructive. Those lean bullish and make the case to get back in.
STX (Long) — The model is long. Recent strength in global equities backs the hold, and the seven-month trend is upwards with a constructive regime alongside. Against that, momentum in global bonds, value stocks and short-term rates all lean bearish. Investment-grade credit offers a touch of support. The reads are mixed, but the trend and regime keep us in.
TSM (Long) — The model is long. Short-term rates over the past week are supportive, and volatility over the past three months leans bullish. The return over the past two weeks and the constructive market regime back the position. Against that, correlation with US large-caps over the past two weeks leans bearish. The downward trend over the past two months and softness in 7-10y Treasuries lean the same way.
TTD (Long) — The model is long. The two-month trend has been upwards and the market regime is constructive, both backing the hold. Correlation with US large-caps reads supportively, and momentum in oil, short Treasuries and the yen all lean the same way. Against that, volatility argues for some caution.
TXN (Flat) — The model is flat. US bond momentum over the past three months leans bearish, and yen softness over the past week adds to that. These keep us on the sidelines. Against that, the counter-factors lean bullish and make the case to get back in. Volatility over the past year, correlation with US large-caps over the past three months, and short Treasury momentum all lean that way, as do the upward trend over the past seven months and the constructive market regime.
UBER (Long) — The model is long. The ten-month trend has been upwards and the market regime is constructive, both backing the hold. Momentum in global bonds also leans supportive. Against that, a cluster of factors leans bearish: softness in US large-caps and investment-grade credit, volatility, and the tidiness of the recent trend. The reads are fairly mixed on the margin.
VRT (Long) — The model is long. Momentum in short Treasuries provides some support over the past three months. That said, several forces lean the other way: softness in US bonds and inflation-linked bonds, weakness in longer Treasuries, and recent oil momentum. The five-month trend is also downwards. The constructive regime is the main factor on our side.
VST (Flat) — The model is flat. Momentum in global bonds and growth stocks leans against the name over recent weeks. The three-month return and the trend versus the moving average both weigh on it, and the ten-month trend is downwards. Against that, the recent downside/upside tilt looks washed out and the market regime is constructive, which lean bullish and make the case to get back in.
ZS (Long) — The model is long. The trend over the past seven months is upwards, keeping us in the name. Against that, the defensive market regime leans cautious. The feature reads are light here, so the trend is doing the work.
DUOL (Flat) — The model is flat. Softness in short-term rates leans bearish, and the recent drawdown leans the same way. The market regime is defensive, which keeps us on the sidelines. Against that, price momentum and the position above trend lean bullish, with weakness in gold adding on an inverse read. The trend over the past seven months is also upwards, so the case to re-engage is there.
LMT (Long) — The model is long. The two-month trend has been upwards, which backs the hold. That said, the market regime is currently defensive, which leans the other way. The reads are otherwise thin here.
RKLB (Flat) — The model is flat. Recent returns look stretched after the run, and softness in gold adds to the caution. The two-month trend has been downwards, which sits on the same side. Against that, the counter-factors lean bullish and make the case to get back in: volatility is supportive, and momentum in bitcoin and long bonds both read constructively. The broader regime is constructive too.
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