We are covering MSFT today. Its Multi-model Signal turned Broad Long at the end of July, meaning three or more models agree on Risk On. It has stayed there since.
Microsoft is still growing fast for a company of its size. Revenue rose 17.7% YoY to $90.0 billion in the quarter to 30 June. Azure, its cloud platform, grew 43% YoY in constant currency.
The cost of that growth is the AI build-out. Cash spent on property and equipment doubled YoY to $35.8 billion in the quarter, about 40% of revenue. Free cash flow fell 23% YoY. Management expects about $175 billion of capital spending in calendar 2026.
The stock has climbed from about $400 to $525 in three months. It is now close to its 2025 highs.
In today’s note, we break down Microsoft’s business, the lease accounting change behind its lower spending figure, valuation, and technicals.
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
The sections below are only viewable to Multi-model Signals & Research subscribers. You can unlock today with a 1-month free trial.