Hi YXI friends,

This is a difficult time for trading. The daily news is confusing and often scary, and we haven't seen oil prices rise this much in the last five years. This makes it hard to know how risk assets should behave under a new regime.

There are some surprises too. Crypto has rallied since the start of the war, defying the bearish sentiment. S&P and QQQ, while down, have been in a broader range-bound regime since October, rather than free-falling. At the same time, precious metals have been de-grossed, even though they are meant to be “safe havens” during times of war.

This is why monitoring the daily macro movements between assets is so important. We examine the market's symptoms systematically, rather than falling for preconceptions and biases. This provides us with a sustained edge over the rest of the market, which is typically compartmentalised by sector.

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

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