Democrats won control of both chambers of the US Congress in the midterm elections held on 3 November 2026, according to Reuters. US stock futures fell as much as 2% overnight, then recovered to slightly positive by 09:09 UTC on 4 November. US cash markets had not opened.
Who won the 2026 US midterm elections? Democrats won the Senate and the House. The Associated Press called both chambers. The Fox News Decision Desk also projected the House. Reuters reported both chambers.
Associated Press count: Democrats have 228 House seats called against 139 for Republicans, with 218 needed. In the Senate, Democrats have 54 seats against 44, with 51 needed.
S&P 500 futures fell 1.3% and Nasdaq-100 futures fell 2.2% late on 3 November, US Eastern time, then recovered to slightly positive by 09:09 UTC on 4 November.
What Democrats won
The chart shows the seats the Associated Press had called in each chamber, as of 10:17 UTC for the House and 10:15 UTC for the Senate on 4 November.
Source: Associated Press; YX Insights
The Associated Press called Senate control for Democrats late on election night, after Democrat Josh Turek beat Republican Ashley Hinson in Iowa. It called the House early on 4 November, after the Fox News Decision Desk projected it late on 3 November.
The Associated Press count shows Democrats with 228 House seats called against Republicans' 139, past the 218 needed. It had not yet called 68 of the 435 seats, as of 10:17 UTC on 4 November (2:17am Pacific). Before the election the House held 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, one independent and two vacancies.
In the Senate, the count shows Democrats with 54 seats against 44 for Republicans. Democrats have 20 won and 34 not up for election, including two independents who caucus with them. Republicans have 13 won and 31 not up. Two seats were not yet called, with 51 needed, as of 10:15 UTC on 4 November (2:15am Pacific).
Democrats flipped several Senate seats. The named results are:
Texas: James Talarico.
Iowa: Josh Turek, over Ashley Hinson.
Kansas: Adam Hamilton, over Senator Roger Marshall.
Ohio: Sherrod Brown, over Senator Jon Husted.
North Carolina: Roy Cooper, over Michael Whatley.
South Carolina: Annie Andrews, over Darline Graham.
Maine: Troy Jackson, over Senator Susan Collins.
Democrats also held New Hampshire, where Chris Pappas beat John Sununu.
Reuters reported that Democrats won in districts long seen as safe for Republicans. It described the result as a setback for President Donald Trump.
How markets moved
The chart shows how five stock benchmarks fell in early trading on the evening of 3 November.
Source: Fox Business; YX Insights
Late on 3 November, US Eastern time, the US 10-year Treasury yield fell 6 basis points to 4.906% and the dollar index fell 0.32%.
Stocks and the dollar then recovered from their overnight lows. As of 09:09 UTC on 4 November:
US stock futures: slightly positive, after falling as much as 2% overnight.
Tesla and SpaceX shares: down about 4.5% to 5% in German trading.
US 10-year Treasury yield: down 3 basis points to 4.92%, after an overnight low of 4.89%.
AI stocks led the early decline in Asia. Reuters reported that investors expect the result to affect AI, defence, health care and banking. It also reported that expected gridlock supported Treasuries.
US cash markets had not opened at the time of these figures, so none of them is a market close.
The chart shows the change in the euro, pound, yen and Swiss franc against the US dollar since 18:00 UTC on 3 November.
Source: YX Insights price data
Measured from 18:00 UTC on 3 November to 10:20 UTC on 4 November, the euro rose 0.59%, the pound 0.53% and the Swiss franc 0.53% against the US dollar. The yen rose 0.08%. Reuters reported that safe-haven currencies gained.
The chart shows the change in gold and bitcoin over the same window.
Source: YX Insights price data
Over the same window, gold rose 2.89% and bitcoin rose 0.94%. Both percentages are measured from 18:00 UTC on 3 November.
Source: Reuters; Fox Business; Associated Press; YX Insights
What analysts say
Twelve strategists gave Reuters their views, grouped here by theme.
Theme | Strategist and firm | View |
|---|---|---|
Limited effect | Christopher Hodge, Natixis | Limited direct economic effect. Expects Trump to shift focus quickly. |
Limited effect | Deborah Cunningham, Federated Hermes | Divided government typically blocks new legislation, which broad markets usually like. |
Limited effect | Jesper Koll, Monex Group | Doubts a Democratic Congress will change Trump's executive-order style. Sees AI pressure as independent of the election. Expects a stronger dollar. |
Limited effect | Tai Hui, J.P. Morgan Asset Management | Trump's veto power shapes the next two years. Divided government could limit deficits. AI trends matter more than the election. |
AI regulation | Jake Dollarhide, Longbow Asset Management | A Democratic sweep could bring regulatory pressure on AI and tech. |
AI regulation | Tapas Strickland, Moomoo ANZ | The AI infrastructure build-out could slow, especially in Texas, if Democrats win the Texas and Georgia governor races. |
AI regulation | Nick Ferres, Vantage Point Asset Management | The size of the margin matters. Flags AI and crypto regulation, a debt ceiling fight and possible impeachment efforts. |
AI regulation | Charu Chanana, Saxo | Worries about AI and Big Tech regulation. Lower Treasury yields could give relief, so the selloff may not last. |
AI regulation | Kathleen Brooks, XTB | Semiconductors could keep rising. Market impact mild so far. |
Rates | Prashant Newnaha, TD Securities | Bonds are the clear winner. Tax cuts and spending may be scaled back. |
Priced in | Michael Arone, State Street Global Advisors | The bigger risk is investors overreacting to the wave. |
Priced in | Mark Malek, Siebert Financial | Much is priced in. Expects some short-term volatility, nothing unusual. |
Source: Reuters; YX Insights
Historical context
Ned Davis Research found that since 1930 the S&P 500 rose through year-end in five of the eight midterm cycles in which the president's party lost the House.
What to watch next
The margin of the Democratic majority, which Ferres says matters.
AI, Big Tech and crypto regulation.
The Texas and Georgia governor races, which Strickland links to AI data centre spending.
A debt ceiling fight and possible impeachment efforts.
The US open, since cash markets had not opened.
DISCLAIMER: This article is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
