The surface was Risk-On on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, with risk at +0.44z, liquidity at +1.01z and inflation at -0.01z.

That liquidity reading is the standout, rebuilding from -0.37z on August 21 and +0.14z on August 24 back towards the +1.64z high struck on August 19.

Risk appetite has been whipsawing on a daily basis, from +0.76z to -0.68z to +0.62z to -0.24z and now +0.44z, so I would not treat the current positive print as a trend.

A broad risk-on session yesterday, led by emerging markets at +1.7% as a group. Uranium was the standout single name at +5.4% and oil the clear laggard at -4.6%.

Condition: Elevated

The TGA has climbed again to $967 billion, about $66 billion higher over the month and back near the top of its three-month range.

Condition: Healthy

SOFR at 3.65% against EFFR at 3.63% leaves the spread at 2bp, comfortably inside its normal range.

We utilise the Fed Funds futures market to gauge market expectations for future FOMC interest rate decisions.

Condition: Potential hikes

The implied path runs from 3.63% today to 4.03% by August 2027, so around 40bp of tightening is priced over the next twelve months.

The Jan-27 contract sits 26bp over the current EFFR. That is up slightly on the week but well off the 46bp peak in late July, so the market has been pricing hikes out rather than in over the month.

Condition: Normal

The curve is upward sloping with 2s10s at 44bp.

Condition: Bull steepening

All three tenors are lower over the month, the 2-year by 7bp and the 30-year by 4bp, so the curve has steepened while yields fell. That is a friendlier mix for equities than the bear steepener we had last week.

Multi-model Signal Position: Flat

Trend Model Reading: Risk Off

Market Regime Model Reading: Risk Off

TLT has bounced back toward the 50-day MA at $83.76, with S2 now around 90% of S1 and the $80.21 target at 100% just below. My read is that this leg is close to done, and a reclaim of the moving average band overhead would end it.

(Check out our daily commodities systematic portfolio & multi-model signals)

Multi-model Signal Position: Flat

Trend Model Reading: Risk On

Market Regime Model Reading: Risk On

USO fell back inside its wedge, losing the 100-day MA at $127.88 with the rising lower rail near $121 the next support. The S2 label is still a question mark on the chart and I want to see which way it resolves before reading much into it.

The split from Monday persists. Both the trend and the regime model read risk on while the Multi-model Signal position stays flat, as it weighs more on the ML model.

Multi-model Signal Position: Flat

Trend Model Reading: Risk On

Market Regime Model Reading: Risk Off

DXY is closing in on the 98.8 objective at 100% of S2, below all three moving averages with RSI down at 35.6. The move is nearly complete on my read.

Multi-model Signal Position: Long

Trend Model Reading: Risk On

Market Regime Model Reading: Risk On

SPY is working down the S2.b leg toward its $750 downside target, which is where the 50-day MA at $752.63 and the falling trendline off the June high both converge. I am comfortable seeing that retest happen before doing anything.

Multi-model Signal Position: Long

Trend Model Reading: Risk On

Market Regime Model Reading: Risk On

QQQ has slipped just under the 50-day MA at $712.95, with the falling trendline off the June high up at $730. My read is unchanged from Monday, i.e. it likely tests the 100-day at $697 before it breaks out. 

Multi-model Signal Position: Long

Trend Model Reading: Risk On

Market Regime Model Reading: Risk On

IWM is holding between the channel mid-line near $303 and the lower line around $293. The upper channel target is still unfinished, but a break of channel support would put the 100-day at $287 in play.

Multi-model Signal Position: Long

Trend Model Reading: Risk On

Market Regime Model Reading: Risk On

EFA is retesting its August high at $108.88 and pushing at the upper channel line near $109.60, with $110.80 at 100% of R2 just beyond it. The momentum is there but the leg is mature, so this is not where I would add.

Multi-model Signal Position: Long

Trend Model Reading: Risk On

Market Regime Model Reading: Risk On

EEM has cleared the 50-day at $66.05 and is working up the R2 leg toward $69.29 at 50%, with $80 the target at 100% of R1. Emerging markets led everything yesterday and I am happy to stay with the momentum.

Multi-model Signal Position: Long

Trend Model Reading: Risk On

Market Regime Model Reading: Risk On

XLF is sitting right on the 67% marker at $58.42, with the upper channel line near $60.20 and $64 the R3 target above it. My read is that it grinds toward the channel top before it needs a pause.

Multi-model Signal Position: Long

Trend Model Reading: Risk On

Market Regime Model Reading: Risk Off

SOXX has now lost the 100-day at $521.14 as well as the 50-day, with the head-and-shoulders still the live pattern and 100% of S1 pointing at $400 and the 200-day. My read here stays cautious.

Note the Multi-model Signal position flipped to long today but only on a 2 out of 4 agreement, while the regime model still reads risk off.

Multi-model Signal Position: Long

Trend Model Reading: Risk On

Market Regime Model Reading: Risk On

IGV is consolidating around the 50% of R1 at $101.91 on the R2 leg, with $123.35 the target at 100% of R1.

Multi-model Signal Position: Long

Trend Model Reading: Risk Off

Market Regime Model Reading: Risk On

AAPL is sitting right on the 50-day MA at $310.67, with S2 now near 90% of S1 and $290 the objective at 100%. The downside from here looks limited to me.

The model disagreement is unchanged from Monday. The trend model reads risk off with price under the 50-day, while the regime model reads risk on.

Multi-model Signal Position: Long

Trend Model Reading: Risk On

Market Regime Model Reading: Risk On

AMZN is working up the R3.b sub-leg with the moving average cluster around $251 underneath and $272.02 at 67% the next level overhead. R3 has still only covered 75% of R2, so there is room left in the upside leg. 

Multi-model Signal Position: Flat

Trend Model Reading: Risk Off

Market Regime Model Reading: Risk Off

GOOGL sits under both the 50- and 100-day with the 200-day at $333.44 the next support. It is clear consolidation here, but the bullish case remains open.

Note that the Multimodel Signal disagrees with me and has been out.

Multi-model Signal Position: Flat

Trend Model Reading: Risk Off

Market Regime Model Reading: Risk Off

META has bounced off the early-August low but is still under all three moving averages. I’m still cautious in the validity of the bounce as the broader trend remains downwards.

Multi-model Signal Position: Long

Trend Model Reading: Risk On

Market Regime Model Reading: Risk On

MSFT is now 16% above the 50-day with RSI at 66. There is no reason why it can’t repeat the 2025 analogue but the upside appears limited here vs the ATH. 

Multi-model Signal Position: Long

Trend Model Reading: Risk On

Market Regime Model Reading: Risk On

NVDA is holding above all three moving averages, but still on the R2 leg with $272.58 the target at 100% of R1.  

Nvidia’s earnings land this evening, but 8 out of the past 9 earnings reactions had been negative, although it has not seen 5 negative reactions in a row since COVID.

Multi-model Signal Position: Long

Trend Model Reading: Risk Off

Market Regime Model Reading: Risk Off

TSLA is working up the R2, with the 50-day at $363.73 the first real resistance above and $391.85 the target at 100%.

It should be noted that the trend and regime models both read risk off while the overall signal is long. This is therefore a low-conviction read.

(Check out our daily commodities systematic portfolio & multi-model signals)

Multi-model Signal Position: Long

Trend Model Reading: Risk On

Market Regime Model Reading: Risk On

GLD has pushed clear of the descending channel and is running toward $430.39 at 150% of R3, with RSI up at 73. The new bull trend is likely playing out, though this is not where I would be adding.

(Check out our daily commodities systematic portfolio & multi-model signals)

Multi-model Signal Position: Long

Trend Model Reading: Risk On

Market Regime Model Reading: Risk On

SLV has reclaimed the 100-day at $62.02, with the 200-day at $64.74 and the $65.61 target at 100% of R2 stacked just above it.

Multi-model Signal Position: Flat

Trend Model Reading: Risk On

Market Regime Model Reading: Risk Off

BTC has now run 40.8% off the July low, which is further than the 39.6% rally that failed in the spring. RSI at 79.8 says the move is stretched, and if this is a bull trap then the pivot is about here.

The Multimodel Signal is still flat on BTC with the regime model risk off, so the systematic side has not chased this one.

Multi-model Signal Position: Long

Trend Model Reading: Risk On

Market Regime Model Reading: Risk On

ETH is holding inside the green zone above $2,430 and is now 26% above its 50-day with RSI at 76. Unlike Bitcoin the book is long here with both models risk on, but the stretch is the same and I would not be chasing it here.

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