Bitcoin has been 4.2 times as volatile as US shares since 2014. Its volatility was 66.9% a year, against 15.9% for SPY (the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund, or ETF). The S&P 500 is an index of 500 large US companies.
Even Bitcoin's calmest year, 2025, was more volatile than SPY's wildest, 2020. The gap is 34.2% against 30.4%.
What is Bitcoin volatility? Bitcoin volatility is the size of the swings in Bitcoin's price. We measure it as how widely weekly price changes scatter around their average, scaled to a yearly figure. From January 2014 to October 2026 it was 66.9% for Bitcoin and 15.9% for SPY.
Bitcoin's volatility ran from 34.2% to 106.5% a year across 13 calendar years, against 5.3% to 30.4% for SPY. Bitcoin's was higher in every year.
Bitcoin's worst fall from a high was 83.4%, against 33.7% for SPY.
After its December 2017 high, Bitcoin took 60.9 months to get back above it for good. SPY took 8.5 months after its 2020 high.
What does Bitcoin volatility mean?
Volatility measures how much a price swings. A price that moves a little each week has low volatility. A price that jumps and drops has high volatility. The figure is a percentage a year.
A calendar year runs from January to December. The 2026 figure is a part year, from January to 23 October.
We compared Bitcoin with SPY, which we call "US shares" in this article. SPY's returns count dividends. Bitcoin pays none. Our guides to volatility and standard deviation cover the idea in more detail, while our guide to what Bitcoin is explains the coin.
How volatile is Bitcoin compared with stocks?
Over the whole window, from 1 January 2014 to 26 October 2026, Bitcoin's volatility was 66.9% a year and SPY's was 15.9%. The ratio is 4.2. Chart 1 shows every calendar year.
Source: YX Insights price data
In Chart 1 the orange Bitcoin bar is longer than the blue SPY bar in every row. Bitcoin ran from 34.2% in 2025 to 106.5% in 2017, while SPY ran from 5.3% in 2017 to 30.4% in 2020.
The year 2017 is the extreme for both: Bitcoin's most volatile year and SPY's calmest. The ratio was lowest in 2025, at 1.98.
Bitcoin's volatility has eased, but not steadily. The mean of its six yearly figures for 2014 to 2019 was 69.6%. For 2020 to 2025 it was 58.6%. The 2026 figure stands at 46.6% after 34.2% in 2025.
How far has Bitcoin fallen from its highs?
A fall from a high to a later low is a drawdown. The high is the highest close so far.
A fall ends when the price first closes at that high again. Its depth is the lowest close in between. We searched the whole window, from 1 January 2014 to 26 October 2026.
Bitcoin's first high in our data is 7 January 2014.
Bitcoin had five falls of 50% or more in that window. The deepest was 83.4%, from December 2017 to December 2018. The latest was 53.1%, from October 2025 to June 2026. SPY's worst fall was 33.7%, from 19 February to 23 March 2020.
Source: YX Insights price data
In Chart 2 the Bitcoin falls run from 53.1% to 83.4%, while SPY's worst is 33.7%.
Single days show the same gap. Over the same window, Bitcoin's worst day was 12 March 2020, down 39.1%. SPY's worst was 16 March 2020, down 10.9%.
Bitcoin spent much of the period well below its highs. It closed 20% or more under its highest close so far on 74.2% of its daily closes. For SPY the share was 1.7%.
How long did Bitcoin take to recover from its falls?
We count a fall as recovered at the first close after which the price never again closes below the old high. A first close back at the old high that later slips under does not count.
Bitcoin took 36.8 months to recover from the January 2014 high and 60.9 months from the December 2017 high. The 2017 high was first regained on 30 November 2020. Bitcoin then fell under it again in 2022. The last close below it was on 12 January 2023.
SPY took 8.5 months to recover from its 2020 high and 23.3 months from its 2022 high, a fall of 24.5%. Chart 3 sets the waits side by side.
Source: YX Insights price data
In Chart 3 the four recovered Bitcoin bars run from 36.8 to 64.1 months, while SPY's two run from 8.5 to 23.3. The two 2021 falls took 64.1 and 57.3 months. They overlap, so both recoveries land in August 2026, on the 17th and the 19th.
The fall from the October 2025 high had not recovered by 26 October 2026, 12.6 months after the peak. Bitcoin closed that day at $80,011, which is 35.8% below the 6 October 2025 high of $124,720. The table gives the detail for every fall.
Asset | High | Low | Depth | Months to a lasting recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Bitcoin | 7 Jan 2014 | 15 Jan 2015 | -81.4% | 36.8 |
Bitcoin | 17 Dec 2017 | 16 Dec 2018 | -83.4% | 60.9 |
Bitcoin | 13 Apr 2021 | 20 Jul 2021 | -53.1% | 64.1 |
Bitcoin | 8 Nov 2021 | 21 Nov 2022 | -76.7% | 57.3 |
Bitcoin | 6 Oct 2025 | 30 Jun 2026 | -53.1% | Not recovered (12.6 so far) |
SPY | 19 Feb 2020 | 23 Mar 2020 | -33.7% | 8.5 |
SPY | 3 Jan 2022 | 12 Oct 2022 | -24.5% | 23.3 |
Falls of 50% or more for Bitcoin and 20% or more for SPY, 1 January 2014 to 26 October 2026. A recovery lasts if the price never closes under the old high again. SPY with dividends counted. Source: YX Insights price data
The table lists each fall with its high, low, depth and months to a lasting recovery.
How did we measure Bitcoin volatility?
We used the daily closing price of Bitcoin in US dollars and the daily closing price of SPY, from 1 January 2014 to 26 October 2026.
Bitcoin trades every day of the year, while SPY trades about 252 days. The day count used to scale a daily figure to a year therefore moves the answer.
Bitcoin's daily figure comes to 67.3% a year scaled by 365 days and 55.9% scaled by 252. That is a gap of 11.4 percentage points, or 20.4% of the lower figure, from the day count alone.
We avoid that choice. A weekly return is the price change from one Friday close to the next, with both assets measured on the same dates. We kept a week only when the stock market was open on both Fridays. That dropped 48 of 668 weeks and left 620 weekly returns, from 10 January 2014 to 23 October 2026.
We took the standard deviation of those weekly returns, a measure of how widely they scatter around their mean. We then multiplied by 7.2, the square root of the 52 weeks in a year. That scales it to a yearly figure.
We then repeated the test five other ways. Two used Wednesday and Thursday closes. The others used Fridays with holidays filled from the previous close, month-end returns and daily returns on stock-market days. Bitcoin's volatility came out between 3.9 and 5.0 times SPY's under all six methods.
We left out one Bitcoin return, the four-day span across 7 to 9 January 2015, because the price file has no closes for those three dates.
What does the test leave out?
The test uses one Bitcoin price series and one fund over 12.8 years. The Bitcoin falls overlap, so they are not independent tests.
Bitcoin trades around the clock, so its daily close falls at a different time from SPY's.
The test uses prices only, with no costs or tax. Volatility measures the size of swings, not their direction. The test makes no forecast.
Our comparisons of Bitcoin with gold and of Bitcoin, Ether and Solana cover Bitcoin beside other assets. Our test of Bitcoin as an inflation hedge covers one more.
In each of 13 calendar years, Bitcoin's volatility sat above SPY's. Its worst fall was 83.4% against 33.7%, while its four recoveries took 36.8 to 64.1 months against 8.5 and 23.3 for SPY.
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Common questions about Bitcoin volatility
Is Bitcoin more volatile than the S&P 500?
Yes. Bitcoin was 4.2 times as volatile as SPY, a fund that tracks the S&P 500, from January 2014 to October 2026. Volatility is the size of price swings, here a yearly percentage. Bitcoin's was 66.9% against 15.9%. It was higher in each of the 13 calendar years, from 34.2% against 17.2% in 2025 to 106.5% against 5.3% in 2017.
Is Bitcoin volatility falling?
Somewhat, but not steadily. Bitcoin's yearly volatility fell from a mean of 69.6% over 2014 to 2019 to a mean of 58.6% over 2020 to 2025. The calmest year was 2025 at 34.2%. The part year to 23 October 2026 stands at 46.6%. Bitcoin's volatility stayed above SPY's in all 13 years.
Does the day count change Bitcoin's volatility?
Yes, if daily returns are scaled to a year. Bitcoin trades 365 days a year, while stocks trade about 252. Scaling Bitcoin's daily figure by 365 gives 67.3%, while 252 gives 55.9%. Weekly returns, Friday close to Friday close on the same dates, put both on one footing.
How much has Bitcoin fallen in its worst crashes?
Its worst fall since January 2014 was 83.4%, from 17 December 2017 to 16 December 2018. A fall means the drop from a high close to the lowest close before the price regains that high. Bitcoin has had five falls of 50% or more in that window. SPY's worst was 33.7%, in February and March 2020.
How long does Bitcoin take to recover from a crash?
Bitcoin took between 36.8 and 64.1 months to recover for good from its four recovered falls of 50% or more. Recovering for good means the price never again closes below the old high. SPY took 8.5 months after its 2020 fall and 23.3 months after its 2022 fall. Bitcoin's October 2025 fall was still open on 26 October 2026.
DISCLAIMER: This article is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
