Hi YXI friends,
Welcome to YX Insights' Multi-model Signals ("MS"), our daily systematic briefing. This is the Commodities book. It comes in two parts.
The portfolio is the book we actually hold. It is re-optimised every Monday, with exits during the week from assets that turned to Flat in Multi-model Signals. You can see the weights and every change as they happen.
The signal board is the wider read behind it: four independent models score every name under coverage, spanning the commodity ETFs themselves and the producers and processors behind them, across precious metals, industrial metals, energy, agriculture and uranium.
Keep the two apart as you read. A name can be long on the board without being in the book, and every portfolio holding is a 1x position whatever tier the board shows.
Coverage
Commodity ETFs (11): GLD, GDX, SLV, SIL, PALL, PPLT, CPER, USO, BCI, URA, DBA
Commodity Equities (13): XOM, NEM, NTR, BHP, RIO, VALE, ALB, DE, LNG, AEM, FNV, SCCO, MP
We will continue to add new names, expanding across equities, crypto, commodities, rates, and FX.
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
1. The Portfolio Today
CO — Commodities
Inception: This is the first book of the live portfolio — every position is opened fresh on Mon 3 Aug.
Next re-optimisation: Mon 10 Aug
Every holding is a 1x position. The 2x tier on the signal board is a signal-strength reading and does not apply to portfolio allocation.
The cash weight is the volatility aim doing its work. Calmer markets mean more invested. It is a best-effort target, not a guarantee.
These are the positions actually published, not a backtest.
2. Today's Signal Board
Today's changes
- PPLT: turned flat
- DBA: turned long
Book posture: 14 long · 10 flat · 24 names covered.
How to read the board: each row shows the book's live position for that name. The four dots show how each of the four models reads it independently, and where they disagree the commentary below explains. Two things are worth knowing before you start. Flat means out of the market, not short. And a holding tag means we are still in the position under the minimum-hold rule while the consensus has already turned the other way. A long signal here is also not the same as a portfolio holding, which section 1 sets out.
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3. Signal Commentary
Each note states the live signal, the factors supporting it, and the counter-case against it. Watch the counter-case: when it builds, the signal is usually the next thing to move.
Commodity ETFs
GLD (Long) — The model is long. Gold's recent strength supports the position, and the market regime is constructive. The downside tilt in recent returns and the recent drawdown both look washed out. Firmer credit spreads add to the supportive picture. Against that, the downward trend over the past two months leans bearish, and softness in oil adds to the caution.
GDX (Flat) — The model is flat. The downward trend over the past two months and a defensive market regime keep us on the sidelines. Momentum in gold and in US large-caps also leans bearish here. Against that, several factors lean bullish and make the case to get back in: softness in the dollar and in high-yield credit, plus weakness in big-cap tech, all read constructively. The reads here are genuinely mixed.
SLV (Long) — The model is long. Volatility backs the position, and the constructive market regime supports it. Silver looks washed out at current levels, which reads bullish. Softness in inflation-linked bonds and a cleaner trend add to the case. Against that, momentum in US large-caps leans bearish, and the downward trend over the past two months argues for some caution.
SIL (Long) — The model is long. Its correlation with US large-caps backs the position, and the upward trend over the past ten months supports it. Softness in gold and oil both read bullish here, and longer-run volatility adds to the case. Against that, momentum in bitcoin leans bearish, and the defensive market regime argues for some caution.
PALL (Flat) — The model is flat. Being out here is about risk control; this name has a history of sharp rebounds from washed-out levels, so we would not chase weakness either. The downward trend over the past year and a stretched trend in palladium keep us on the sidelines, with risk-adjusted returns adding to the caution. Against that, several factors lean bullish and make the case to get back in: softness in oil and silver, plus firmer credit spreads, all read constructively.
PPLT (Flat) — The model is flat. The downward trend over the past ten months keeps us on the sidelines. Momentum in Chinese equities and big-cap tech both lean bearish. Realised volatility and the trend picture add to the caution. Against that, softness in bitcoin leans bullish and makes some case to get back in, and the market regime is constructive.
CPER (Long) — The model is long. The upward trend over the past year backs the position, and the market regime is constructive. Softness in gold, inflation-linked bonds, emerging-market equities and Treasuries all read bullish here. Against that, its correlation with US large-caps leans bearish and argues for some caution. This name has a history of sharp rebounds, so we would not read that as a reason to chase weakness.
USO (Flat) — The model is flat. Softness in long bonds and 7-10y Treasuries weighs on the read, and momentum in high-yield credit adds to the drag. Against that, the counter-case leans bullish. Strength in Chinese equities helps, dollar softness supports the long, and both the two-month uptrend and the constructive regime argue for getting back in.
BCI (Long) — The model is long. Bitcoin looks washed out and supports the position, and the clean trend backs it too. Tight credit spreads help, and inflation-linked bonds add support. The two-month uptrend and constructive regime lean the same way. Against that, the broad commodities trend leans bearish.
URA (Flat) — The model is flat. The year-long downtrend keeps us on the sidelines here, and softness in high-yield credit weighs. That said, the counter-case leans bullish. Tight credit spreads help, and strength in global equities, gold and bitcoin all argue for getting back in. The constructive regime also supports that side.
DBA (Long) — The model is long. The recent drawdown looks washed out and backs the position, and the ten-month uptrend and constructive regime support it too. Against that, several factors lean bearish. Softness in long bonds weighs, the shift in the yield curve adds caution, and firmer realised volatility and stretched gold also cut against.
Commodity Equities
XOM (Long) — The model is long. Strength in oil backs the position. Against that, several factors lean bearish. Gold looks stretched, correlation with US large-caps weighs, and firmer short-term rates and volatility add caution. The ten-month uptrend and constructive regime keep us on the long side.
NEM (Flat) — The model is flat. Strength versus trend looks stretched and keeps us out, and momentum in growth stocks, big-cap tech and US large-caps all weigh on the read. The year-long downtrend leans the same way. Against that, firmer volatility and the constructive regime lean bullish and make the case to get back in.
NTR (Long) — The model is long. Strength in oil backs the position, and softness in growth stocks supports it too. The seven-month uptrend and constructive regime lean the same way. Against that, the recent return looks stretched, correlation with US large-caps weighs, and the trend read leans bearish.
BHP (Long) — The model is long. The upward trend over the past five months backs the position, and the market regime is constructive. Its correlation with US large-caps is also supportive. Against that, several factors lean bearish and argue for caution: volatility and momentum in US large-caps both weigh on the read. Risk-adjusted returns and the move above trend look stretched here, adding to the mean-reversion pull.
RIO (Flat) — The model is flat. The defensive regime and the two-month downtrend keep us on the sidelines. On the other side, the downside tilt in recent returns looks washed out. Softness in the dollar is supportive, and volatility over the past month leans bullish too. These are the case to get back in, though big-cap tech momentum still leans the other way.
VALE (Flat) — The model is flat. Global equity momentum over the past quarter leans bearish, and correlation with US large-caps adds to the caution. The two-month downtrend keeps us out. On the other side, the position versus its trend looks washed out, and softness in big-cap tech is supportive. The constructive regime also argues for getting back in.
ALB (Long) — The model is long. Correlation with US large-caps is supportive here, and softer oil over the past week helps too. Volatility over recent months and the constructive regime also back the position. Against that, the upside tilt in recent returns leans bearish, and momentum in growth stocks adds to the caution. The seven-month downtrend is the main counterweight.
DE (Long) — The model is long. Softer oil over the past week is supportive, as is weakness in bitcoin over recent months. The downside tilt in recent returns looks washed out, and the two-month uptrend and constructive regime back the position. Against that, the pullback in short-term volatility leans bearish, and the name looks stretched versus its trend.
LNG (Long) — The model is long. Elevated volatility over the past month is supportive, and the seven-month uptrend and constructive regime back the position. That said, oil momentum over recent weeks leans bearish. Softness in global bonds and a widening in credit spreads add to the caution. Risk-adjusted returns also look stretched.
AEM (Long) — The model is long. The trend over the past year remains upwards, and the market regime is constructive. Little else stands out in the reads today, so we hold the position.
FNV (Flat) — The model is flat. Volatility over the past month leans bearish, and the position versus its trend looks stretched. The five-month downward drift keeps us out. On the other side, momentum in medium-dated Treasuries is supportive, and the recent drawdown looks washed out. The constructive regime also argues for getting back in.
SCCO (Flat) — The model is flat. Momentum in medium-dated Treasuries is supportive, and the recent drawdown looks washed out here. Softness in the dollar adds to the constructive read. Against that, elevated volatility over recent months leans bearish, and the run-up over the past quarter looks stretched. The downward trend of the past two months keeps us on the sidelines, though the constructive regime pulls the other way.
MP (Flat) — The model is flat. Softness in bitcoin leans against getting involved, and dollar strength adds to the caution. The year-long downtrend and defensive regime keep us on the sidelines. Against that, the recent return and negative correlation with US large-caps lean bullish, with firmer credit spreads on the same side. Being out is about risk control; this name has a history of sharp rebounds from washed-out levels, so we would not chase weakness either.
4. Position History
The running record of every signal, so you can see each position's history and how long each stance has been held.
How the four models work, the leverage policy and the ETF alternatives now live on the YX Insights website.