Since 3 January 2023, the mean daily move in SPY (the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund, or ETF) on jobs report days was 1.04%. On days with none of five major releases, which we call ordinary days, the mean move was 0.62%.
We tested five releases: the jobs report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI), the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), and Federal Reserve rate decisions. The test covers 43 jobs report days and 760 ordinary days. Only the jobs report stood clearly apart from an ordinary day.
Which economic releases move the stock market most? Of five releases tested, the jobs report. The mean SPY move on those days since January 2023 was 1.04%, against 0.62% on days with none of the five.
Fed rate decision days came second at 0.78%, then CPI at 0.73%, PPI at 0.69%, and JOLTS at 0.64%.
Random draws of days with none of the five matched or beat the jobs report result in 10 of 20,000 tries. They matched or beat the other four far more often.
We did not test GDP, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, retail sales, or weekly jobless claims, because we did not source a full list of their dates.
What is an economic calendar?
An economic calendar lists the dates and times at which agencies publish economic data and policy decisions.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes the jobs report, CPI, PPI, and JOLTS. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) publishes Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the PCE Price Index. The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision after each meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
The BLS calendar lists every jobs report, CPI, and PPI release in our test at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. It lists every JOLTS release at 10:00 a.m. The Fed released its 28 October 2026 statement at 2:00 p.m. Eastern.
The New York Stock Exchange core session runs from 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. Eastern.
How did we test which releases move stocks?
We used SPY with dividends counted. SPY is one of the names covered in our Multi-model Signals. The window runs from 3 January 2023 to 3 November 2026, which is 963 trading days.
A day's move is the change in SPY's close from the previous close. We ignore direction, so a 2% fall and a 2% rise are both a 2% move. The mean move is the mean of those sizes, while the median is the middle one.
We took release dates from the publishers. For the jobs report, CPI, PPI, and JOLTS, we used every date on the BLS calendar pages for 2023 to 2026. For rate decisions, we used the last day of each scheduled FOMC meeting on the Fed's calendar. That gives 31 decisions.
We left out 22 August 2025, which the Fed lists as a notation vote and not as a meeting.
Two jobs reports came out on Good Friday, 7 April 2023 and 3 April 2026, when the market was shut. We left both out. That leaves 43 jobs report days, 45 for CPI, 45 for PPI, 46 for JOLTS, and 31 for rate decisions.
Seven days carry two releases. In all, 203 days carry at least one. The other 760 carry none. The test measures the whole day, so it cannot separate a release from other news on the same day.
Which release moves the stock market most?
Chart 1 ranks the five by mean move. The jobs report comes first at 1.04%. Rate decision days follow at 0.78%, then CPI at 0.73%, PPI at 0.69%, and JOLTS at 0.64%. The 760 days with none of the five have a mean move of 0.62%.
Source: YX Insights price data
The largest move on any release day was SPY's 5.85% fall on 4 April 2025, a jobs report day.
Is the jobs report gap real or luck?
Days vary widely, so 43 days could beat ordinary days by luck. We drew 43 days at random from the 760 ordinary days, 20,000 times. We counted how often a draw matched or beat 1.04%. That happened 10 times in 20,000.
We ran the same draw for the other four. Random draws matched the rate decision mean in 1,642 of 20,000 tries, CPI in 2,315, PPI in 4,365, and JOLTS in 7,822.
We ran four checks on each release: the random draws, the median, the share of days with a move of 1% or more, and the mean without the largest day.
The jobs report ranked first on each. Its median was 0.91%, against 0.46% on ordinary days. Without 4 April 2025, its mean was 0.92%.
Chart 2 shows the share of days with a move of 1% or more: 19 of 43 jobs report days, against 149 of 760 days with none of the five.
Source: YX Insights price data
Jobs reports fell on a Friday on 38 of the 43 days. Ordinary Fridays had a mean move of 0.63%, so the day of the week does not account for the gap.
Did CPI, PPI and JOLTS stand apart from ordinary days?
CPI's 0.73% rests mostly on one day, 10 April 2025, a 4.38% fall. Without it, CPI has a mean of 0.65% and falls behind PPI's 0.66% without its largest day.
Of 46 JOLTS days, 9 moved 1% or more, a share level with ordinary days.
Our guides to the CPI report and to what CPI measures cover the release itself.
Do Fed decision days move stocks?
Rate decision days rank second overall at 0.78% across 31 days, but the result differs between the two periods. Chart 3 splits the test at the end of 2024.
Source: YX Insights price data
Decision days had a mean move of 1.02% in 2023 and 2024, across 16 days, against 0.58% on ordinary days. From 2025 to 3 November 2026, across 15 days, the mean was 0.53%, against 0.67% on ordinary days. The jobs report ranked second in 2023 and 2024, then first from 2025. Fed decision days ranked last from 2025.
Our guides cover the FOMC meeting schedule, how to read an FOMC statement, and how stocks behave around FOMC meetings.
What does each release measure?
The jobs report is the BLS Employment Situation release. It draws on two surveys. A survey of households measures unemployment, while a survey of businesses measures Nonfarm Payrolls, the count of jobs at nonfarm businesses. Our guides cover Nonfarm Payrolls, how to read the jobs report, and the Unemployment Rate.
CPI measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of goods and services. PPI measures the average change in the selling prices received by domestic producers. JOLTS measures job openings, hires and separations. Our guide to JOLTS covers the last of these.
The PCE Price Index appears in BEA's monthly Personal Income and Outlays report. Our guides compare it with CPI and explain why economic data gets revised.
Release | Publisher | Time (Eastern) | Next date listed on 4 November 2026 | Mean SPY move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Jobs report | BLS | 8:30 a.m. | 6 November 2026 | 1.04% |
Fed rate decision | Federal Reserve | 2:00 p.m. on 28 October 2026 | 9 December 2026 | 0.78% |
CPI | BLS | 8:30 a.m. | 10 November 2026 | 0.73% |
PPI | BLS | 8:30 a.m. | 13 November 2026 | 0.69% |
JOLTS | BLS | 10:00 a.m. | 1 December 2026 | 0.64% |
GDP, second estimate for the third quarter | BEA | 8:30 a.m. | 25 November 2026 | Not tested |
PCE Price Index (Personal Income and Outlays) | BEA | 8:30 a.m. | 25 November 2026 | Not tested |
Mean SPY move is the mean size of the one-day move, up or down, from 3 January 2023 to 3 November 2026, with dividends counted. Dates and times are as the publishers list them. Source: BLS, BEA and Federal Reserve calendars; YX Insights price data
Which releases did we not test?
We did not test GDP, the PCE Price Index, retail sales, or weekly jobless claims. We did not source a full list of their dates for 2023 to 2026 from the publisher, so we do not rank them. Their rows in the table show dates only.
The test covers one fund over 3.8 years, a period that includes the large falls of early April 2025.
Of the five releases we could date in full, the jobs report is the one whose days stood apart from ordinary days: a mean move of 1.04% against 0.62%.
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Common questions about the economic calendar
What is the most important economic report for the stock market?
In our test, the jobs report. The mean SPY move on 43 jobs report days since January 2023 was 1.04%, against 0.62% on days with none of five releases. Rate decisions came second at 0.78%. We tested five releases only. The result makes no forecast for any future date.
What time do economic reports come out?
The BLS calendar lists the jobs report, CPI, and PPI at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, before the US stock market opens at 9:30 a.m. JOLTS is listed at 10:00 a.m. The Fed released its 28 October 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. Eastern. Each publisher sets its own times and can change them.
When is the next jobs report?
As of 4 November 2026, the BLS calendar lists the October 2026 jobs report for 6 November 2026 and the November report for 4 December 2026, both at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The BLS can change these dates. Our guide to how to read the jobs report explains each line.
Where is the official economic calendar?
The BLS, the BEA and the Federal Reserve each publish their own calendar. The BLS lists the jobs report, CPI, PPI, and JOLTS. The BEA lists GDP and PCE. The Fed lists FOMC meetings. Our FOMC meeting schedule guide sets out its dates. We took every release date in this guide from those three publishers.
Does CPI move the stock market?
Not clearly, in our test. The mean SPY move on 45 CPI days was 0.73%, against 0.62% on ordinary days. Random draws of 45 days with none of the five matched or beat that in 2,315 of 20,000 tries, so we cannot separate the gap from chance. Our CPI report guide explains how to read the release.
DISCLAIMER: This article is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
