Hi YXI friends,
Welcome to YX Insights' Multi-model Signals ("MS"), our daily systematic briefing. This is the Financial Infrastructure & Digital Assets (FIDA) book. It comes in two parts.
The portfolio is the book we actually hold. It is re-optimised every Monday, with exits during the week from assets that turned to Flat in Multi-model Signals. You can see the weights and every change as they happen.
The signal board is the wider read behind it: four independent models score every name under coverage, spanning the major digital assets themselves and the listed businesses built around them, from card networks and consumer finance to exchanges, brokers and crypto treasuries.
Keep the two apart as you read. A name can be long on the board without being in the book, and every portfolio holding is a 1x position whatever tier the board shows.
Coverage
Crypto (4): BTCUSD, ETHUSD, SOLUSD, XRPUSD
FIDA Equities (7): MSTR, COIN, HOOD, V, MA, AXP, SOFI
We will continue to add new names, expanding across equities, crypto, commodities, rates, and FX.
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
1. The Portfolio Today
FIDA — Financial Infrastructure & Digital Assets
Inception. This is the first book of the live portfolio — every position is opened fresh on Mon 3 Aug.
Next re-optimisation: Mon 10 Aug
Every holding is a 1x position. The 2x tier on the signal board is a signal-strength reading and does not apply to portfolio allocation.
The cash weight is set by two things: the per-name concentration cap, and the volatility aim. More qualifying names and calmer conditions mean more invested. Both are best-effort targets rather than guarantees, so cash can run high on a book where few names qualify.
These are the positions actually published, not a backtest.
2. Today's Signal Board
Today's changes
- MA: sized to 2× (long)
Book posture: 7 long · 4 flat · 11 names covered.
How to read the board: each row shows the book's live position for that name. The four dots show how each of the four models reads it independently, and where they disagree the commentary below explains. Two things are worth knowing before you start. Flat means out of the market, not short. And a holding tag means we are still in the position under the minimum-hold rule while the consensus has already turned the other way. A long signal here is also not the same as a portfolio holding, which section 1 sets out.
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3. Signal Commentary
Each note states the live signal, the factors supporting it, and the counter-case against it. Watch the counter-case: when it builds, the signal is usually the next thing to move.
Crypto
BTCUSD (Long) — The model is long. Softer short-term rates lean bullish, and both gold and big-cap tech look washed out enough to support the position. Tighter credit spreads add to the constructive case, as does the current regime. Against that, global equity momentum over the past month leans bearish, and the trend over the past five months is downwards.
ETHUSD (Flat) — The model is flat. Being out here is mostly about the downtrend over the past five months. That said, the counter-factors lean bullish and make the case to get back in. Bitcoin looks washed out over the past three months and risk-adjusted returns look stretched to the downside. The recent drawdown and softer oil both lean bullish, and the regime remains constructive.
SOLUSD (Flat) — The model is flat. The shift in the yield curve over the past three months leans bearish, and global equity momentum over the past month adds to the caution. Softer long bonds and a weak trend both back staying out, and the regime is currently defensive. The downtrend over the past ten months lines up behind the stance. There is little on the other side here beyond bitcoin, and the reads point the same way.
XRPUSD (Long) — The model is long. The trend looks washed out over the past three months and XRP's own return looks stretched to the downside, both leaning bullish. Risk-adjusted returns and softer ether momentum add to that case, and the constructive regime backs the position. Volatility over the past year also leans bullish. The downtrend over the past ten months is the main factor the other way, so we would not chase weakness given this name's history of sharp rebounds from washed-out levels.
FIDA Equities
MSTR (Flat) — The model is flat, and only a turn in the trend flips this, not the factors. The downtrend over the past year is what keeps us out. On the other side, the reads lean bullish: volatility, softer ether and bitcoin, and weaker big-cap tech all look washed out. The regime is constructive too. Being out is about risk control here, and this name has a history of sharp rebounds from washed-out levels, so we would not chase weakness.
COIN (Flat) — The model is flat. Coinbase's own trend looks stretched and leans bearish, and the shift in the yield curve adds to the caution. Softer inflation-linked bonds also back staying out, and the regime is currently defensive. The downtrend over the past year lines up behind the stance. Against that, softer ether momentum and volatility lean bullish, but they are the minority here.
HOOD (Long) — The model is long. Gold and oil both look washed out over the past week to month, and that mean-reversion setup supports the position. Softer volatility helps too, and the ten-month trend is upwards against a constructive market regime. Against that, the name itself looks stretched here, which leans bearish, and Treasury momentum over the past fortnight adds a bit of caution. Only a turn in the trend would change the stance.
V (Long) — The model is long. The drawdown over the past six months leans bullish, and steadier 7-10y Treasuries add a little support. The year-long uptrend and constructive regime sit behind the position. That said, oil momentum over the past month leans bearish. Price also looks stretched over the past three months and the trend looks a touch overextended, both arguing the other way.
MA (Long) — The model is long. Momentum in big-cap tech is firm over the past three months and bitcoin is adding support. The steady link with US large-caps and firmer high-yield credit both back the position, and the year-long uptrend and constructive regime line up behind it. Against that, the drawdown over the past six months leans bearish and argues for some caution.
AXP (Long) — The model is long, with the upward trend of the past two months behind the position. Against that, the defensive market regime argues for some caution. The reads are otherwise thin here.
SOFI (Long) — The model is long. The upward trend of the past two months backs the position, and the constructive regime supports it. The level of the yield curve leans bullish, softness in growth stocks and oil lean the same way, and the trend read adds to the case. Against that, the past month's returns lean bearish and are the main note of caution.
4. Position History
The running record of every signal, so you can see each position's history and how long each stance has been held.
How the four models work, the leverage policy and the ETF alternatives now live on the YX Insights website.