The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces its December decision at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday 9 December 2026, which is 7:00 p.m. in London. The meeting runs on 8 and 9 December. We wrote this preview on 4 November 2026, from Federal Reserve documents published up to that date.
On 4 November 2026, the target range for the Fed Funds Rate is 3.75% to 4%. The Committee held it on 28 October by a 10 to 2 vote, with both dissenters preferring a 0.25 point rise. December is a Summary of Economic Projections meeting, so the Committee also publishes new projections and a new dot plot.
What happens at the FOMC meeting on 9 December 2026? The FOMC announces its interest rate decision at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time, together with new economic projections and the dot plot. The Chair then takes questions at a press conference.
In September, 16 of the 18 participants who submitted projections projected an end-2026 range above 3.75% to 4%. Twelve projected one more 0.25 point rise and four projected two.
On 28 October, two members voted for a rise while ten voted to hold. Five of the seven 2026 meetings drew at least one dissent, 12 dissenting votes in total.
Six scheduled releases fall between the meetings, listed below. They include two jobs reports and the October Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.
What time is the FOMC decision on 9 December 2026?
The FOMC releases its statement at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time. In December, the United States is on standard time, so that is 7:00 p.m. in London and 4:00 a.m. on 10 December in Tokyo. The 28 October statement came out at 6:00 p.m. in London.
The Implementation Note comes out with the statement. It sets the administered rates, such as the 3.90% interest rate on reserve balances, as explained here.
Chair Kevin Warsh took questions after the 28 October decision.
The minutes come out three weeks after the decision, on Wednesday 30 December 2026.
The Fed's policy sets a blackout period on policy comments from Saturday 28 November to Thursday 10 December. Every 2026 and 2027 date is on our FOMC meeting schedule.
What does the dot plot add in December?
The Summary of Economic Projections collects each participant's forecasts for growth, unemployment, inflation, and the Fed Funds Rate. The dot plot shows the rate forecasts, one dot per participant, for the end of each year and the longer run.
Four 2026 meetings carry projections: March, June, September, and December. October had none, so September's were the last before December.
Eighteen participants submitted projections in September (17 for 2028 and 2029). Warsh said on 28 October that he does not submit one.
The Fed plots each dot as the midpoint of a target range. A midpoint of 4.125% stands for a range of 4% to 4.25%. Chart 1 counts the 18 dots for the end of 2026.
Source: Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections, September 2026; YX Insights
Two dots sat at 3.875%, the 3.75% to 4% range. Twelve sat at 4.125%, one rise away. Four sat at 4.375%, two rises away. That makes 16 of 18 above the 3.75% to 4% range.
The median is 4.125%, which the Fed's table prints as 4.1%.
The September minutes recorded that most participants assessed another rise would likely be appropriate by the end of the year.
How did the September projections change from June?
The median year-end rate moved up. Chart 2 shows the September and June median paths, with the end-2024 and end-2025 midpoints.
Source: Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections (June and September 2026) and FOMC statements; YX Insights
The table sets the June and September medians side by side. The Fed rounds each median to one decimal place. Its inflation projections run from the fourth quarter of one year to the fourth quarter of the next, so they differ from the 12-month rates later in this article.
Median projection | End-2026, June | End-2026, September | End-2027, June | End-2027, September |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Real GDP growth | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% |
Unemployment Rate | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.1% |
PCE inflation | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
Core PCE inflation | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
Fed Funds Rate | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% |
Medians of the participants' projections, in %, as printed by the Federal Reserve rounded to one decimal place. Growth and inflation run from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter. Unemployment is the fourth-quarter average. The Fed Funds Rate is the midpoint of the target range at year-end. Source: Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections, September 2026, including its June comparison rows
The end-2026 rate median rose from 3.8% to 4.1%. The end-2027 median rose from 3.6% to 4.1%. The end-2026 unemployment median fell from 4.3% to 4.1%. The December projections replace all of these.
How did the FOMC vote in October?
The Committee voted 10 to 2 to hold the range at 3.75% to 4%. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted against. Both preferred to raise it by 0.25 point.
The September statement, which raised the range, said: "Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal."
The October statement said: "The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent goal." Our guide to reading an FOMC statement shows how to compare them.
Chart 3 counts the dissenting votes at each 2026 meeting, by what the dissenter preferred. Five of the seven meetings drew at least one.
Source: Federal Reserve, FOMC statements, 2026; YX Insights
Stephen Miran voted for a cut at the first three meetings. Christopher Waller joined him in January.
In April, Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissented over an easing bias in the statement wording, not over the rate. In July, the same three voted for a rise. The seven meetings drew 12 dissenting votes in total, 3 of them over wording.
At the 28 October press conference, Warsh said he does not favour forward guidance except in a crisis and does not prejudge meetings. Our October preview covers that meeting in full.
What did the September inflation and jobs figures show?
The Fed measures its 2% goal with the PCE Price Index. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on 29 October that the index rose 3.6% in the 12 months to September. Excluding food and energy, it rose 3.1%.
Chart 4 shows both rates since January 2025. The headline rate peaked at 3.8% in May 2026, the highest of the 21 months.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED (PCEPI, PCEPILFE); YX Insights
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.7% in the 12 months to September. Excluding food and energy, it rose 2.6%. Gasoline rose 9.1% in September and made up over half of the monthly increase. Our guide to CPI against PCE explains why the two measures differ.
Employers added 29,000 jobs in September. Unemployment was 4.2%. The Bureau said it has stayed between 4.1% and 4.3% since March.
Which releases fall between the October and December meetings?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Fed listed these dates on 4 November 2026. All are at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time except the minutes.
Friday 6 November: the October jobs report.
Tuesday 10 November: the October Consumer Price Index.
Wednesday 18 November: the minutes of the 27 to 28 October meeting, three weeks after the decision.
Wednesday 25 November: the October PCE Price Index.
Wednesday 25 November: the second estimate of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product.
Friday 4 December: the November jobs report.
The November Consumer Price Index comes out on Thursday 10 December, after the decision.
What will the 9 December documents show?
Three things come out together at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on 9 December.
The decision and the vote. The range stood at 3.75% to 4% on 4 November. The last vote was 10 to 2.
The statement. The 28 October wording about "the accumulation of more information" is the text to compare.
The new dots. In September, 12 of 18 sat at 4.125%. The median path ran 4.1%, 4.1%, 3.9%, and 3.6% from 2026 to 2029.
The September dots are the baseline.
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Common questions about the FOMC meeting in December 2026
What time is the Fed decision on 9 December 2026 in the UK?
The Fed releases its decision at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday 9 December 2026, which is 7:00 p.m. in London. In Tokyo it is 4:00 a.m. on 10 December. The Chair's press conference follows the statement. Our FOMC meeting schedule lists every 2026 and 2027 meeting.
Is there a dot plot at the December 2026 FOMC meeting?
Yes. The Fed marks 8 to 9 December as a meeting with a Summary of Economic Projections. The dot plot is part of that release. In 2026, March, June, September, and December carry projections, while October does not. Our guide to the dot plot explains how to read it.
What is the Fed Funds Rate target range for December 2026?
The target range was 3.75% to 4% when we wrote this on 4 November 2026. The FOMC raised it by 0.25 point on 16 September and held it on 28 October. The 9 December statement sets the next range. Our guide to the Fed Funds Rate gives the history.
When are the FOMC minutes for the December meeting released?
The Fed releases minutes three weeks after the decision, so Wednesday 30 December 2026 for the December meeting. The Fed's three-week rule put the minutes of the 27 to 28 October meeting on Wednesday 18 November. Our guide to FOMC minutes shows what they contain.
Is there an FOMC meeting in November 2026?
No. The Fed's calendar lists eight regular meetings in 2026: January, March, April, June, July, September, October, and December. The October meeting ended on 28 October. The next begins on 8 December. The Fed also states that it holds other meetings as needed. The FOMC meeting schedule shows all eight.
DISCLAIMER: This article is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
