The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the part of the Federal Reserve (the Fed) that sets US interest rates, announces its October 2026 decision on Wednesday 28 October 2026. The statement is released at 14:00 Eastern Time, which is 18:00 in the UK.
The Fed Funds Rate, the interest rate banks charge each other for overnight loans, is set as a target range. The range is 3.75% to 4.00%. The FOMC raised it by 0.25 percentage point on 16 September 2026. The Fed publishes no new economic forecasts at this meeting, so the statement, the vote and the press conference carry the news.
What happens at the FOMC meeting on 28 October 2026? The FOMC decides whether to change the target range for the Fed Funds Rate. It announces the decision at 14:00 Eastern Time, with a press conference at 14:30.
The range is 3.75% to 4.00%. October brings no Summary of Economic Projections, the Fed's table of forecasts. The next one comes on 9 December 2026.
The minutes of the September meeting said most of the officials taking part judged another rise likely to be appropriate by the end of the year.
On 14 October 2026, Fed Funds Futures, contracts that settle on the average Fed Funds Rate, carried 12 basis points of rise for this meeting. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point, so a full 0.25 point rise is 25.
What time is the FOMC announcement on 28 October 2026?
The meeting runs over two days, Tuesday 27 and Wednesday 28 October 2026. The decision comes on the second day. The Fed's own calendar lists the times in Eastern Time (ET). UK times are added in brackets.
14:00 ET (18:00 UK): the FOMC statement, with an implementation note that lists the new settings of the Fed's rate tools.
14:30 ET (18:30 UK): the Chair's press conference.
14:00 ET (19:00 UK) on 18 November 2026: the minutes of the meeting.
The gap to the UK is 4 hours on 28 October, against 5 for most of the year. British Summer Time ends on 25 October 2026, while US daylight saving time ends a week later, on 1 November 2026. The FOMC meeting schedule lists every date for 2026 and 2027.
Is there a Summary of Economic Projections in October?
No. The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) is a table of forecasts from each FOMC participant for growth, unemployment, inflation and the Fed Funds Rate. Its rate chart is the dot plot.
The Fed's calendar marks four 2026 meetings as SEP meetings: March, June, September and December. The October meeting carries no mark.
The next projections come with the decision on 9 December 2026. The latest are those of 16 September 2026.
Source: Federal Reserve; YX Insights
The chart shows the median projection from that September table. The median participant projected a rate of 4.1% at the end of 2026 and 4.1% at the end of 2027, above today's range.
The median is 3.9% for the end of 2028, 3.6% for the end of 2029 and 3.2% over the longer run.
What is the target range and how did it get there?
The FOMC cut the range by 0.25 point at three meetings in late 2025, to 3.50% to 3.75%. It held that range at the first five meetings of 2026.
On 16 September 2026 it raised the range by 0.25 point to 3.75% to 4.00%, effective 17 September. FRED, the St. Louis Fed's data service, shows this as the first rise since July 2023.
The implementation note of 16 September also reset the Fed's other rate tools, effective 17 September 2026. The interest rate paid on reserve balances became 3.90%. The Standing Repo Facility rate became 4.00%, the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility rate 3.75% and the primary credit rate 4.00%. How the Fed sets rates explains each tool.
The Effective Fed Funds Rate, the rate banks actually paid, was 3.88% on 13 October 2026. What is the Fed Funds Rate? covers the difference.
What has the data shown since the September meeting?
The Fed defines its 2% inflation goal on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a different index from the Consumer Price Index (CPI). What is PCE inflation? explains it.
Three data releases and one document have arrived since 16 September 2026.
30 September: the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the PCE Price Index for August up 3.4% over 12 months. Excluding food and energy, the rise was 3.0%.
2 October: Nonfarm Payrolls, the monthly count of jobs added, rose by 29,000 in September. The Unemployment Rate was 4.2%.
7 October: the minutes of the September meeting were released.
14 October: core CPI, which leaves out food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month against the 0.2% consensus estimate. Over 12 months, core rose 2.6% and headline CPI rose 3.7%. Our September 2026 CPI report recap has the detail.
The PCE and CPI figures cover different indexes and different months, so they differ.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED (PCEPI, PCEPILFE); YX Insights
The chart shows the PCE Price Index since January 2025. The headline rate peaked at 3.8% in May 2026. In August 2026 it was 3.4%, with the core rate at 3.0%.
The minutes record that all participants supported the September rise. They also state that most participants assessed another rise as likely to be appropriate by the end of the year.
How do you read the market pricing on the day?
Fed Funds Futures are contracts that settle on the average Effective Fed Funds Rate over a calendar month. What are Fed Funds Futures? shows how a price becomes a probability.
A rise on 28 October would take effect on 29 October, so it would apply to only 3 of October's 31 days. The monthly contracts therefore have to be resolved onto the meeting calendar to isolate the October decision.
Three dated readings show the path of the pricing. On 2 October 2026, after the jobs report, Fed Funds Futures prices gave about a one-in-four chance of a rise on 28 October. On 7 October 2026, after the minutes, the chance was 17.2%.
On 14 October 2026 at 09:02 Eastern Time, after the CPI report, the strip of contracts carried 12 basis points of rise at the meeting. Our September 2026 CPI report recap records that figure. The pricing fell after the jobs report, then jumped on the CPI report.
A basis point is 0.01 percentage point, so a full move is 25 basis points. Twelve is 48% of one.
The Fed does not move by 12 basis points. The figure is the weighted average of a hold at 0 and a rise at 25. Under the assumption of 0.25 point steps, it reads as a 48% chance of a rise and a 52% chance of a hold.
How did the FOMC vote in 2026?
The statement names every vote against the decision. A vote against is a dissent.
Source: Federal Reserve; YX Insights
The chart counts the dissents at each 2026 meeting by the reason for the dissent.
The early meetings drew votes for a cut. In April, three of the four dissenters objected to wording that leaned towards easing. In July, three members voted for a 0.25 point rise. In September the Committee voted 12 to 0 for the rise.
What should you look for at 14:00 Eastern Time?
Three parts of the statement carry the information:
The vote count opens the statement, ahead of the decision. Any votes against are named at the end.
The first sentence after the vote count gives the decision on the target range.
The inflation sentence shows how the Committee describes prices. In September it read "Inflation remains elevated."
The press conference follows at 14:30, with the Chair taking questions.
A hold would run against the 48% of the pricing that is a rise. A rise would run against the other 52%. With no new projections, the statement, the vote and the Chair's answers are the information to read.
Common questions about the FOMC meeting in October 2026
What time is the Fed decision on 28 October in the UK?
The Fed announces its decision at 18:00 UK time on Wednesday 28 October 2026, which is 14:00 Eastern Time. The gap is 4 hours on this date because UK clocks go back on 25 October and US clocks on 1 November. The press conference follows at 18:30 UK time.
Is there a dot plot at the October 2026 FOMC meeting?
No. The dot plot is part of the Summary of Economic Projections. The Fed's calendar marks only the March, June, September and December meetings as projection meetings. The next dot plot is due on 9 December 2026. The latest was published on 16 September 2026.
What is the Fed Funds Rate target range now?
The target range is 3.75% to 4.00%. The FOMC set it on 16 September 2026, effective 17 September, with a rise of 0.25 percentage point. What is the Fed Funds Rate? explains how the range relates to the rate banks actually pay.
When are the FOMC minutes for the October meeting released?
The Fed releases the minutes of the 27-28 October meeting on 18 November 2026 at 14:00 Eastern Time, which is 19:00 in the UK. The next FOMC meeting is on 8 and 9 December 2026. The FOMC meeting schedule lists the dates for 2026 and 2027.
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