We are covering INTC stock today, as it’s one of the few names with a 4/4 Multi-model Signal model agreement.
Over the past year, Intel has shifted from a turnaround story to a strategic asset. It is currently the only US-based company that both designs leading-edge chips and makes them at scale in its own US factories.
Washington has chosen to own a piece of that too. In August 2025, the US Department of Commerce agreed to take 433.3 million new Intel shares at $20.47 each, about 9.9% of the company. It paid with $8.9 billion in grants Intel had already been awarded: $5.7 billion from the CHIPS Act and $3.2 billion from the Secure Enclave programme, which funds chips for defence.
The government also holds a warrant for another 5% at $20 a share. It can use that only if Intel's ownership of its own factories falls below 51%, so the warrant ties the factories to Intel.
At $120 this week, the stake is worth about $52 billion, close to six times what it cost. Later share sales have diluted it to about 8%.
Private money followed. SoftBank invested $2 billion that same month. Nvidia added $5 billion, which closed in December 2025.
Then the operating story started to back the bet. 18A, Intel's newest manufacturing process, went into production. Revenue broke out of a two-year range in the second quarter. Server chips are selling faster than Intel can make them.
In August 2026, Intel further de-risked its balance sheet with a massive share issuance. Intel sold 242.1 million new shares at $95 each, raising about $23.0 billion before fees and adding 4.8% to the share count.
Intel said the money is for general corporate purposes, including capital spending. Its finance chief tied it to supplier commitments for 14A, the next manufacturing process, and a growing capital spending cycle.
The sale significantly changes the balance sheet. At the end of June, Intel had $50.5 billion in debt and $20.8 billion in net debt. About $22.8 billion in net proceeds turns into roughly $2.0 billion in net cash. The equity raise also covers $2.5 billion in bonds due in 2026 and $3.8 billion due in 2027.
However, I am a little cautious that the shares have moved further than the business itself. Since October 2025, the stock is up 234.5%, while revenue over the last twelve months grew 7.5%. Intel's enterprise value has gone from a five-year median of 2.6 times sales to about 11 times today. It certainly doesn't look “cheap”.
In today’s note, we break down Intel’s business, valuation, and technicals.
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
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