TLT Bonds: Safe Haven? Up 33.9% in 2008, Down 31.2% in 2022

In 2008, TLT (the long-term Treasury bond exchange-traded fund, or ETF) gained 33.9% while stocks fell. In 2022, TLT lost 31.2%. All returns in this guide include dividends, the payouts the funds make, counted as reinvested.

A safe haven is an asset that holds its value or rises when stocks fall. This guide tests TLT against that definition. It uses price data from 26 July 2002 to 26 October 2026 and the issuer's own page, opened on 30 October 2026.

TLT is the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF. An ETF is a fund that trades on a stock exchange. Our explainer on what an ETF is has the detail.

Treasuries are bonds the US government issues to borrow money. On 28 October 2026 TLT held 47 of them, due between 15 May 2044 and 15 August 2056. The largest, a 4.75% bond due 15 May 2055, was 4.32% of the fund.

The fund tracks the ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. Its expense ratio, the annual fee taken from the fund, is 0.15%. Net assets, the total value of what it holds, were $47.39 billion on 29 October 2026.

A bond pays a fixed rate of interest. A yield is the annual return a buyer earns at today's price. When yields rise, the prices of existing bonds fall. Our explainer on bond prices and yields covers the link.

Duration measures how far a bond fund's price moves when yields change. The issuer reports an effective duration of 14.89 years for TLT on 28 October 2026. That means a price fall of about 14.9% for each 1 percentage point rise in yields.

TLT holds long-term bonds, so we track the 20-year Treasury yield, the yield on Treasuries with 20 years left.

Chart 1 shows TLT and SPY in the three episodes of this heading, plus 2009, the year after 2008. The 2008, 2009 and 2022 bars are calendar years, from the last close of the prior year.

The March 2020 bars run from SPY's closing high on 19 February to its closing low on 23 March. We searched for both between 1 February and 30 April 2020.

In 2008 the 20-year yield fell 1.45 points, from 4.50% to 3.05%. TLT gained 33.9%. SPY lost 36.8%.

In the March 2020 window the yield fell 0.74 points. TLT gained 14.2% and SPY lost 33.7%. Inside the window, TLT lost 15.7% between its closes on 9 and 18 March. SPY lost 12.5% between the same two closes.

In 2022 the yield rose 2.20 points, from 1.94% to 4.14%. TLT lost 31.2% and SPY lost 18.2%. Our guide to the 2022 bond market crash covers that year in full.

In 2009 the yield rose 1.53 points. TLT lost 21.8% while SPY gained 26.4%. TLT's return followed the direction of the yield in all four rows.

Total returns over the closes shown, dividends counted, before costs and tax. The March 2020 row runs from SPY's closing high to its closing low, searched 1 February to 30 April 2020. Source: YX Insights price data; Federal Reserve Board H.15 (20-year yield)

SPY fell in 3 of the 23 full calendar years from 2003 to 2025: 2008, 2018 and 2022. TLT gained in 2008, lost 1.6% in 2018 and lost 31.2% in 2022.

Chart 2 shows TLT's return on the 20 days SPY fell most. We searched all 6,101 daily returns from 26 July 2002 to 26 October 2026. TLT rose on 15 of the 20 days.

Eleven of the 20 days fell in 2008, five in 2020 and two in April 2025. On the worst day, 16 March 2020, SPY lost 10.9% and TLT gained 6.5%. On 18 March 2020, TLT lost 5.6% while SPY lost 5.1%.

Twenty days is a small sample, so we widened it to every day SPY fell 2% or more: 235 days. TLT rose on 184 of them, or 78.3%. On all 6,101 days, TLT rose on 3,181, or 52.1%.

We split the 235 days at the end of 2021, because 2022 is the year in question. Through 2021, TLT rose on 165 of 197 days, or 83.8%. From 2022, it rose on 19 of 38 days, or 50.0%. The share of all days on which TLT rose moved by 3.4 points: 52.8% through 2021 and 49.4% from 2022.

We also ran 1% and 3% thresholds. The shares were 76.9% through 2021 and 48.1% from 2022 at 1%. They were 84.5% and 63.6% at 3%, but only 11 days fall from 2022 at that level.

Correlation measures how closely two series move together, on a scale from -1 (opposite directions) to +1 (in step). We calculated it on weekly returns from the last close of each week. That is 1,265 weeks from 2 August 2002 to 23 October 2026.

The correlation over the whole period is -0.25. Through 2021 it is -0.35 over 1,014 weeks. From 2022 it is +0.14 over 251 weeks.

Chart 3 rolls the calculation over 52 weeks at a time. The lowest value was -0.84 and the highest was +0.57.

The 52-week figure was above zero in 68 of the 963 windows ending through 2021. It was above zero in 158 of the 251 windows ending from 2022. Through 2021 the two tended to move in opposite directions. From 2022 they have tended to move together.

Volatility is how widely a price swings from day to day, scaled to a year. TLT's was 14.25% and SPY's was 18.77%, both from daily closes from 26 July 2002 to 26 October 2026.

We measure a fall from a previous high to the lowest point after it. We searched the same window on daily closes. Our explainer on what a drawdown is covers it.

TLT's worst fall was 48.3%, from its high on 4 August 2020 to its low on 19 October 2023. That took 3.21 years. TLT had not regained the high by 26 October 2026, when it sat 42.1% below it.

SPY's worst fall was 55.2%, from 9 October 2007 to 9 March 2009. That took 1.42 years. SPY regained its high on 16 August 2012.

The test covers one bond fund and one stock fund, before costs and tax. It rests on three episodes. We chose the 2022 split date after seeing 2022. The files start in July 2002, so they say nothing about earlier decades.

Our comparison of intermediate and long-term Treasury ETFs tests the dollar and oil as well. Our guide to stocks against bonds compares the two asset classes.

Our guide to how ETFs perform in a crisis covers 27 funds across seven shocks.

TLT rose when stocks fell in 2008 and in the March 2020 window, but it fell with stocks in 2022. Its return followed the 20-year yield in each period. On days SPY fell 2% or more, TLT rose 83.8% of the time through 2021 and 50.0% of the time from 2022.

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Not reliably. TLT's daily swings were smaller than SPY's, but its worst fall was 48.3%, from its high on 4 August 2020 to its low on 19 October 2023, with dividends counted. Volatility was 14.25% a year against 18.77% for SPY, from July 2002 to October 2026. TLT had not regained that high by 26 October 2026.

Often, but not always. TLT rose on 184 of the 235 days SPY fell 2% or more between July 2002 and October 2026, or 78.3%. Through 2021 the share was 83.8%. From 2022 it was 19 of 38 days, or 50.0%. TLT lost 31.2% in 2022 while SPY lost 18.2%.

This guide does not test Fed cuts directly. TLT's return followed the 20-year yield. That yield fell 1.45 points in 2008 and TLT gained 33.9%. It rose 2.20 points in 2022 and TLT lost 31.2%. Our explainer on how the Federal Reserve (the Fed) sets rates has the mechanics.

TLT holds long-term US Treasury bonds. On 28 October 2026 it held 47 of them, due between May 2044 and August 2056. The fund tracks the ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index and charges an expense ratio of 0.15%. Our explainer on the 2022 rate rises covers the year TLT fell most.

DISCLAIMER: This article is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.