An exchange-traded fund, or ETF, is a fund whose shares trade on a stock exchange like an ordinary share. SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) fell 55.2% from its high in October 2007 to its low in March 2009.
Over the same window TLT (the long-term US Treasury bond ETF) returned 25.0%, first day to last. The two measures differ: SPY's fall runs from its own high to its own low, while TLT's return runs from one end of the window to the other. This post measures the 27 exchange-traded funds we follow daily, as at October 2026, across seven market shocks from the 2008 crisis to early 2026.
How do ETFs perform in a crisis? It depends on what the fund holds. In the 2008 crisis the 24 funds trading then fell by between 6.2% and 81.8%, each from its own high to its own low.
In five of the six shocks that began in shares, a government bond fund or the dollar fund fell least. The 7 to 10 year US Treasury bond fund fell 6.2% in 2008, against 55.2% for the S&P 500 fund.
Two funds fell further than the S&P 500 fund in all seven shocks: SOXX (a semiconductor ETF) and the US regional banks fund.
2022 broke the pattern. Long-term US Treasury bonds fell 34.9% that year, more than the S&P 500 fund's 24.5%.
How these falls are measured
A drawdown is the fall from a high point down to the low that follows it, before a new high is set. The figure used here is each fund's largest drawdown inside one shock: its deepest fall from any earlier high in that window.
Every price counts dividends as reinvested on the day they are paid. Each fund finds its own peak and trough, so the dates differ from fund to fund. What a drawdown is covers the measure in full.
One shock close up: February and March 2020
The February and March 2020 fall was the fastest of the seven. The S&P 500 fund lost a third of its value in 23 trading days, the days the US market was open.
Source: YX Insights
Each line starts at 100 on 19 February 2020. By 23 March the S&P 500 fund stood at 66, the US regional bank fund at 51 and the crude oil fund at 44.
The long-term US Treasury bond fund finished the window at 114. Gold moved least of the five, dipping to 91 before finishing at 96.
The crude oil fund's low came on 18 March, at 42. The grid below gives it a fall of 58.2%, from its own high on 20 February down to that low.
Every ETF we cover, in seven shocks from the 2008 crisis to early 2026
Each shock has a dated window. The name starting each line is that shock's column heading in the grid.
2008: 9 October 2007 to 9 March 2009
2013: 1 May to 5 September 2013
2020: 19 February to 23 March 2020
2022: 3 January to 30 December 2022
Aug 2024: 16 July to 5 August 2024
Apr 2025: 19 February to 8 April 2025
2026: 27 January to 30 March 2026
Five of the seven run from the S&P 500 fund's record high to its lowest close after it. The 2013 window runs from the 7 to 10 year US Treasury bond fund's high that year to its low, because that shock started in bonds.
That 2013 shock is known as the taper tantrum: the Federal Reserve said in May 2013 that it might slow its bond purchases.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose from 1.66% on 1 May 2013 to 2.98% on 5 September 2013. A bond's yield is the yearly return it pays at its current price.
The 2022 window runs to the last trading day of the year, because several bond and commodity funds bottomed after share prices did on 12 October 2022.
Three funds were not trading for the earliest shocks, so those cells read "not listed". Communication services starts on 19 June 2018, copper on 15 November 2011 and uranium on 5 November 2010.
The deepest fall anywhere in the grid is 81.8%, by the US financials fund in the 2008 crisis. The mildest group is bonds and the dollar, whose worst anywhere in the grid is 34.9%.
These are measurements of seven shocks that have already happened. They say nothing about what any fund will do next. This post gives no guidance on what to hold.
The grid gives every fund's fall in every shock, grouped by what it holds. On a phone it scrolls sideways, with the fund names in the first column.
Fund | 2008 | 2013 | 2020 | 2022 | Aug 2024 | Apr 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
US shares | |||||||
S&P 500 (SPY) | −55.2% | −5.6% | −33.7% | −24.5% | −8.4% | −18.8% | −8.9% |
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) | −53.4% | −5.9% | −28.6% | −34.8% | −12.3% | −22.8% | −11.7% |
Smaller companies (IWM) | −58.4% | −4.9% | −40.8% | −26.9% | −10.0% | −22.6% | −10.1% |
Shares outside the US and Canada | |||||||
Developed markets (EFA) | −61.0% | −10.2% | −32.6% | −28.7% | −7.3% | −14.1% | −11.4% |
Emerging markets (EEM) | −66.4% | −17.1% | −30.8% | −32.7% | −8.7% | −15.0% | −13.5% |
South Korea (EWY) | −74.2% | −14.7% | −36.2% | −40.6% | −11.9% | −16.3% | −23.1% |
UK shares (EWU) | −64.0% | −9.0% | −40.2% | −24.9% | −4.9% | −12.6% | −9.9% |
Technology and chips | |||||||
US technology (XLK) | −53.0% | −5.9% | −31.1% | −33.1% | −15.2% | −25.7% | −14.5% |
Semiconductors (SOXX) | −65.7% | −7.9% | −34.3% | −45.5% | −22.4% | −32.9% | −15.8% |
Semiconductors (SMH) | −59.5% | −7.1% | −33.6% | −45.1% | −22.1% | −30.2% | −14.9% |
Software (IGV) | −49.8% | −8.1% | −30.3% | −38.5% | −11.7% | −24.3% | −21.3% |
Communication (XLC) | not listed | not listed | −30.1% | −41.5% | −5.4% | −17.7% | −10.6% |
Other US sectors | |||||||
US financials (XLF) | −81.8% | −6.9% | −42.8% | −25.8% | −6.9% | −15.5% | −11.4% |
Regional banks (KRE) | −66.0% | −6.6% | −49.5% | −27.5% | −11.6% | −23.5% | −15.0% |
Health care (XLV) | −39.2% | −5.2% | −27.9% | −16.1% | −2.9% | −10.8% | −10.2% |
Bonds, credit and the dollar | |||||||
7 to 10 year Treasuries (IEF) | −6.2% | −9.1% | −4.7% | −17.4% | −0.8% | −1.7% | −3.2% |
Long-term Treasuries (TLT) | −16.2% | −17.0% | −15.7% | −34.9% | −2.8% | −4.8% | −5.4% |
High-yield bonds (HYG) | −34.2% | −7.0% | −22.0% | −15.5% | −1.2% | −4.6% | −2.3% |
The US dollar (UUP) | −10.9% | −4.7% | −4.6% | −8.7% | −1.8% | −4.9% | −1.2% |
Commodities and miners | |||||||
Gold (GLD) | −29.4% | −18.6% | −12.5% | −21.0% | −4.4% | −5.0% | −19.2% |
Silver (SLV) | −57.1% | −23.2% | −35.6% | −33.0% | −13.1% | −13.5% | −42.5% |
Gold miners (GDX) | −70.8% | −27.0% | −38.8% | −46.5% | −10.0% | −9.8% | −30.8% |
Copper (CPER) | not listed | −11.3% | −20.5% | −34.7% | −9.7% | −21.5% | −16.4% |
Crude oil (USO) | −80.5% | −5.3% | −58.2% | −31.8% | −9.2% | −18.5% | −9.1% |
Natural gas (UNG) | −75.1% | −26.8% | −18.0% | −58.3% | −13.8% | −23.3% | −32.7% |
Farm commodities (DBA) | −48.9% | −7.4% | −15.1% | −15.9% | −4.2% | −10.5% | −1.1% |
Uranium shares (URA) | not listed | −19.6% | −34.6% | −36.0% | −21.4% | −26.0% | −26.7% |
How wide the falls were in each shock
Inside a shock the funds do not move together. The median fall is the middle value once they are placed in order.
Source: YX Insights
The chart marks those three points for each shock. In the 2008 crisis the falls ran from 81.8% down to 6.2%, median 57.7%. In early August 2024 they ran from 22.4% down to 0.8%, median 9.2%.
The funds that gained while the S&P 500 fell
A drawdown is always negative, so the grid cannot show a fund that ended a shock higher. A whole-window return does.
Source: YX Insights
The chart covers two funds, the S&P 500 fund and the long-term US Treasury bond fund. The bond fund gained in four of the seven windows.
It returned 25.0% in the 2008 crisis and 14.2% in February and March 2020. It gained 5.3% in early August 2024 and 0.8% in April 2025.
These window returns are not the falls in the grid. For 2022 the chart shows the S&P 500 fund 19% down and the bond fund 29% down, first day to last. The grid gives 24.5% and 34.9%.
The dollar fund and gold are not on the chart. The dollar fund gained in five of the seven windows, gold in three, including 23.9% in the 2008 crisis. Whether gold is a safe haven looks at that record.
What the seven shocks have in common
Three patterns run through the grid. The first is that bonds and the dollar fell least. The 7 to 10 year US Treasury bond fund fell less than the S&P 500 fund in six of the seven shocks, 2013 excepted. The dollar fund fell less in all seven.
The second is that the same funds fell hardest each time. SOXX (the iShares Semiconductor ETF) and the US regional banks fund fell further than the S&P 500 fund in all seven shocks. The other semiconductor fund, SMH, did so in six: 33.6% in 2020 against 33.7%. Silver, gold mining shares and natural gas each did so in six.
The third is 2022, when bonds fell alongside shares. A bond's price drops when its yield rises, so rising interest rates took bond funds down while share prices were falling. Bond prices and yields explains the link.
Across these seven shocks, how far a fund fell followed what it held.
Common questions about how ETFs perform in a crisis
Do ETFs lose value in a market crash?
Yes, in practice. An ETF holds the assets it tracks, so it falls when they fall. Across the seven shocks measured here, from the 2008 crisis to early 2026, every one of the 27 funds fell inside each shock it was trading through. In the 2008 crisis the falls ran from 6.2% to 81.8%.
Which ETFs hold up best in a crisis?
In five of the six shocks that started in shares, a US government bond fund or the dollar fund fell least. The 7 to 10 year US Treasury bond fund fell 6.2% in the 2008 crisis against 55.2% for the S&P 500 fund. In February and March 2020 it fell 4.7% against 33.7%. The exception was early 2026, when the farm commodities fund fell least, 1.1% against the dollar fund's 1.2%.
Did bond ETFs protect investors in 2022?
No. The long-term US Treasury bond fund fell 34.9% at its deepest in 2022, worse than the S&P 500 fund's 24.5%. A bond's price falls when its yield rises, so a year of rising interest rates took the bond funds down while shares were falling too.
Which ETFs went up in the 2008 crisis?
Four of the 24 funds trading then ended that window higher, from 9 October 2007 to 9 March 2009. Long-term US Treasury bonds returned 25.0%, 7 to 10 year US Treasury bonds 20.1%, gold 23.9% and the dollar fund 11.8%. Those are measurements of a shock that has already happened.
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