Hi YXI friends,
Almost every name on this board rallied on Monday.
We have eleven of the thirty-five ratings changing this week, and unlike the last few boards they run in both directions rather than one.
The split is inside semis. TSM, ASML and AMAT are all still holding the rising channels they have run in for over a year, and I am tactically overweight all three against the rest of the cohort, where ARM, MU, INTC, LRCX, SNDK and MRVL stay broken. That pair is the main expression on this board.
IWM joins the long side today, and TLN goes tactically overweight from the bottom third of its range. CSCO and VRT move to tactical underweights, as both have rallied into near-term resistance.
Four names step back to Neutral: QCOM, WDC, CRWV and IREN.
One caution before the week gets going. AMD reports tonight, and most of the AI Infrastructure and Power names follow inside the next week.
Table of Contents
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
Please check out our glossary for explaining the acronyms, financial terminology, and economic data.
Macro Regime
Risk appetite printed +1.23z on Monday, August 03, 2026, up from +0.21z on Friday and well clear of the -1.75z reading on July 29.
Liquidity is the weak leg at +0.03z, essentially neutral after Friday's -0.54z and a marked step down from the +0.62z on July 28. Inflation sits at -0.44z, back near where it started the week and a long way from the +0.88z spike on July 29.
My read is that this is a risk bid without a liquidity tailwind. While the market appears constructive, the flat liquidity caps how far this can run without fresh reserve growth.
Equity Indices
If you haven’t already, please read our Appendix: Chart Label Guidance at the bottom of this article before proceeding.
SPY: S&P 500
Price Structure: Range
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (August 3, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
SPY closed at $757.67 on Monday, a 1.42% session that carries it back to the $758 highs. The bull flag off the June top has resolved upwards, and price is now testing the top of the range it has held since June.
I remain neutral for one more session. If we close above $758, I would mark the Range resolving into an Uptrend and move to Overweight.
QQQ: Nasdaq 100
Price Structure: Rebound
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (August 3, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
QQQ closed at $700.07 on Monday, up 1.76%, and has reclaimed the 100-day MA at $675.62.
I remain neutral. The selloff leg is complete and this is a genuine rebound. However, the 50-day MA at $714.51 caps the rebound potential, while the bounce has already travelled nearly 5% off the low. A breakout above the 50-day would move me to Overweight.
IWM: Russell 2000
Price Structure: Pullback
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (August 3, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Overweight (Tactical Upgrade)
IWM closed at $296.22 on Monday, up 1.72%, back above the 50-day MA at $292.60 and away from the bottom of the rising channel. S3 stopped at 90% of S2 and turned.
I upgrade to Tactically Overweight. The near-term target is the top of the channel (a new all-time high), with the July low being invalidation.
Semiconductors — Compute & Memory
AMD: Advanced Micro Devices
Price Structure: Range
Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Underweight
AMD closed at $484.64 on Monday, up 1.78%, still under the 50-day MA at $512.95 and well above the 100-day. R2.b topped at roughly 100% of R2.a and price has gone sideways since.
I stay Underweight, but earnings tonight is the near-term risk to this, and no stop protects across a print. If earnings take AMD above the price channel (i.e. a breakout), it will invalidate my Underweight rating.
AVGO: Broadcom
Price Structure: Range
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
AVGO closed at $392.23, a touch under the 50-day MA at $394.54 with the 100-day at $383.93 just beneath. S2 completed around 100% of S1 and price has consolidated between the two MAs ever since.
I remain neutral until we clear and followthrough the 50-day.
MRVL: Marvell
Price Structure: Downtrend, Stabilising
Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Underweight
MRVL closed at $193.78 on Monday, up 3.31%, and has reclaimed the 100-day MA at $186.41.
The price is evidently in a downward channel. I am comfortable staying Underweight unless it breaks out to the upside. This is a volatile name so position sizing is key.
CRDO: Credo Technology
Price Structure: Pullback
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
CRDO bounced 5.5% off $195 on Monday. However, the 50-day MA at $234.55 still caps the bounce in a near-term pullback.
While the broader trend remains upwards, I don’t mind playing off the near-term price channel with the 50-day MA as resistance. I would target the $125 region at the 100% of S2. Therefore, I am waiting to see if the market sells it intraday and rejects this current bounce before initiating a tactical Underweight rating.
ARM: Arm Holdings
Price Structure: Downtrend
Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Underweight
ARM fell 0.26% on Monday while the rest of the group rallied hard, closing at $239.06 and below the 100-day MA at $249.48.
I stay Underweight. The 200-day MA at $190.23 is the destination once the 100-day goes, and relative weakness on a strong day for semis tells me the selling is not finished.
TSM: TSMC
Price Structure: Pullback
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Overweight (Tactical Upgrade)
TSM closed at $406.11 on Monday, holding the bottom of the rising channel it has run in for over a year and staying above the 100-day MA at $397.59. It has not touched the 200-day MA since the first half of 2025.
I upgrade to a tactical Overweight. It is tactical because this is a relative call, with TSM one of only two structures in this group still intact while the rest of the Semis cohort breaks down. We could target $480, the June high, with invalidation at the July low near $375, where the channel itself would be gone.
ASML: ASML
Price Structure: Pullback
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Overweight (Tactical Upgrade)
ASML closed at $1,642.52, back above the 100-day MA at $1,587.15 and holding the bottom of the same kind of rising channel as TSM. R2 has already run beyond 100% of R1.
I upgrade to a tactical Overweight, with a similar rationale to TSM. We could target the July high near $2,000, with the July low as invalidation. Falling below the 100-day MA is what would signal this structure has topped.
MU: Micron
Price Structure: Range
Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Underweight
MU closed at $829.50 on Monday, stuck around the neckline support/ resistance area.
I stay Underweight with a S1.b target of $660.
QCOM: Qualcomm
Price Structure: Downtrend
Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral (Upgrade)
QCOM closed at $151.57 on Monday, up 2.68%, after S2.c reached 100% of S2.b and price turned right on the $142.63 extension. RSI is at 32.8.
I upgrade to neutral. S2.c is sufficient in length, and I said last week I would step back at around $155, so this is that.
TXN: Texas Instruments
Price Structure: Breakdown
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
TXN fell 2.43% on Monday to $269.04, losing the support line that has held since May on a closing basis. It was one of only two names in this group to fall on the day.
I remain neutral for now, with the 100-day MA at $265.79 immediately below. The double top targets the 200-day MA at $224.70 if that support line is not reclaimed, and a close below the 100-day is what moves me to Underweight.
INTC: Intel
Price Structure: Breakdown
Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Underweight
INTC closed at $91.00 on Monday, still beneath the support shelf near $99.50 and the 100-day MA at $92.90 it broke last week.
I stay Underweight. Historically INTC gets close to the 200-day MA after losing the 100-day, and that sits at $67.31. A close back above the shelf ends the call.
Semi Equipment & EDA
AMAT: Applied Materials
Price Structure: Pullback
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Overweight (Tactical Upgrade)
AMAT closed at $518.21 on Monday, up 2.08%, reclaiming the trendline support it lost last week and holding above the 100-day MA at $465.25. R3 is still an extended run at 140% of R2.
I upgrade to a tactical Overweight, as a hedge against the underweights elsewhere in semis. We could target $700, the July high, with invalidation at the 100-day MA, below which the reclaim has failed.
LRCX: Lam Research
Price Structure: Breakdown
Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Underweight
LRCX closed at $294.61 on Monday, a fraction under the 100-day MA at $294.97 that it lost last week. It is attempting a reclaim rather than completing one.
I stay Underweight for now.
KLAC: KLA
Price Structure: Pullback
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
KLAC closed at $182.75 on Monday, unchanged on the day, and has held the rising trendline it has followed since October. It is still below both the 50-day MA at $221.24 and the 100-day at $194.28.
I remain neutral, and cautious until at least the 100-day is reclaimed.
Hardware, Networking & Storage
ANET: Arista Networks
Price Structure: Uptrend
Previous YX TA Bias: Overweight (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Overweight
ANET closed at $184.89 on Monday, up 2.52%, above all three moving averages and still printing higher highs and higher lows inside the rising channel.
I remain overweight. R3 repeats R1 at $216 and the trend is intact, though earnings are the near-term risk to this.
DELL: Dell
Price Structure: Range
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
DELL closed at $429.02 on Monday, up 5.83%, back above the 50-day MA at $402.18 and into the upper half of the $372-465 range it has held since June.
I remain neutral. Until the range breaks, this is still a bull flag.
CSCO: Cisco
Price Structure: Pullback
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Underweight (Tactical Downgrade)
CSCO closed at $115.86 on Monday, flat on the day and still under the 50-day MA at $117.44, which is now acting as resistance inside the falling channel.
I am moving to a tactical Underweight rating, to target the 100-day MA at $103. A sustained move above the 50-day MA would invalidate this rating, but the risk-reward is appealing.
WDC: Western Digital
Price Structure: Pullback
Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral (Upgrade)
WDC fell 3.23% on Monday to $527.22, but it is holding the rising trendline it has followed since October and sits well above the 100-day MA at $466.54.
Our Underweight failed, as the 100-day breach that justified it has been reclaimed. We move back to Neutral, and this can be viewed like a stop loss. It is now attempting the 50-day MA at $562.62, and I would rather see which way that breaks before re-rating it.
SNDK: SanDisk
Price Structure: Breakdown
Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Underweight
SNDK closed at $1,288.03 on Monday, up 6.03%, but still below the 100-day MA at $1,338.63 and outside the rising channel it left last week.
I stay Underweight. There is little volume between here and the 200-day MA at $848.89, so that air pocket is still open. Earnings are the near-term risk to this.
AI Infrastructure & Data Centres
CRWV: CoreWeave
Price Structure: Downtrend
Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral (Upgrade)
CRWV squeezed 19.49% higher on Monday to $85.76, turning at $69.89 with S2 around two-thirds of S1 rather than the three-quarters I was waiting for.
I upgrade to neutral. The leg has not reached its measured target at $46.95, but S2 has completed more than 75% of S1 (i.e. matured), with a recent reversal in momentum. I want to see if it fails to clear the upper trendline resistance.
NBIS: Nebius
Price Structure: Rebound
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
NBIS jumped 11.64% on Monday to $212.58, back above the 100-day MA at $185.45 after S2 completed 100% of S1.
I remain neutral. S2 has completed 100% of S1. Meanwhile, the 50-day MA at $224.11 is now the resistance that decides the next leg. Earnings are the near-term risk to this.
IREN: IREN
Price Structure: Downtrend
Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral (Upgrade)
IREN closed at $39.75 on Monday, up 8.02%, after S2 reached 75% of S1 at $31.17 and the bottom of the channel.
I upgrade to neutral to close the underweight rating. The selloff matured last week, so the risk-reward is no longer appealing here.
VRT: Vertiv
Price Structure: Rebound
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Underweight (Tactical Downgrade)
VRT rallied 8.89% on Monday to $263.05, back to the underside of the $270 shelf it lost in late July. The 50- and 100-day MAs are stacked just above $300.
I move to a tactical Underweight rating here, as it attempts the support-turned-resistance after breaking down after earnings.
EQIX: Equinix
Price Structure: Range
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
EQIX closed at $1,031.44, still inside the $1,010-1,128 range and below both the 50-day MA at $1,053.60 and the 100-day at $1,043.03.
I remain neutral.
HUT: Hut 8
Price Structure: Pullback
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
HUT closed at $112.08 on Monday, up 4.13%, back above the 50-day MA at $111.77 and holding inside the uptrend channel.
I remain neutral. S3 may already equate to S2 and be finished.
AI Power & Nuclear
VST: Vistra
Price Structure: Range
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
VST rallied 5.23% on Monday to $155.94, back to the 50- and 100-day MAs that sit together just above $155. The wide range that has contained it all year is intact.
I remain neutral.
CEG: Constellation Energy
Price Structure: Downtrend
Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Underweight
CEG rallied 4.17% on Monday to $273.71, reclaiming the 50-day MA at $263.05 but still under the 100-day at $278.48 and a long way below the 200-day at $306.80.
I stay Underweight. S2 targets $194.80 at 100% of S1 and is only about halfway there, while invalidation is a breakout above the channel top near $290. Earnings are the near-term risk to this.
OKLO: Oklo
Price Structure: Downtrend
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
OKLO rallied 6.16% on Monday to $41.22, holding above the 75% extension at $39.22 and still well below all three moving averages.
I remain neutral. S3 is into its last quarter with $30.70 the measured target, so the downside objective is largely in, and the 50-day MA at $53.09 is a long way overhead. Earnings are the near-term risk to this.
CCJ: Cameco
Price Structure: Downtrend, Stabilising
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
CCJ closed at $89.72 on Monday, up 3.87%, and is starting to consolidate sideways between the 125% and 150% extensions at $90.48 and $84.14.
I remain neutral. S2 is well past 100% of S1, so the downside objective is largely in and the reward no longer pays from here.
GEV: GE Vernova
Price Structure: Pullback
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
GEV closed at $1,006.76 on Monday, back above the 100-day MA at $1,001.01, with S3 having run 125% of S2. It may well have bottomed.
I remain neutral until R4 actually starts. The 50-day MA at $1,024.29 is the first confirmation.
TLN: Talen Energy
Price Structure: Range
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Overweight (Tactical Upgrade)
TLN closed at $344.49 on Monday, up 3.11%, in the lower third of the $302-443 range that has held since late 2025. This is the end of the range I said I would be interested in.
I upgrade to a tactical Overweight. We could target $450 at the top of the range, with invalidation at $302 where the range floor sits, which is roughly two and a half times the risk from here. Earnings are the near-term risk to this.
NRG: NRG Energy
Price Structure: Downtrend
Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 28, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Underweight
NRG closed at $138.47 on Monday, up 3.48%, back above the 50-day MA at $135.23 but still capped by the 100-day at $142.56 and the shelf just above it.
I stay Underweight. S3 targets $112.60 at 100% of S1. Invalidation is a close above the trendline resistance.
Appendix: Chart Label Guidance
Every chart gets a clear, scored label. Here's how to read them, so nothing is left to interpretation.
How I set the YX TA Bias
It is a reward-against-risk statement, not a forecast. Every name reads Overweight, Neutral or Underweight based on what the chart offers at today's price, not on where I think price is going.
Structure decides which side I can be on.
Uptrend, breakout, pullback or rebound: Overweight or Neutral only.
Downtrend or breakdown: Underweight or Neutral only.
Range: either one, depending on where price sits between support and resistance.
Position in the move decides the rating. I measure the distance still to run to target against the distance to the level that proves me wrong. Two to one or better earns a full Overweight or Underweight, and anything less is Neutral. It follows that I get more constructive on a pullback towards support, not on strength into resistance.
The level that proves me wrong is never the support I am pointing at. If a name is holding its trendline, that trendline is the reason I am interested, so the risk is measured to the next level below it: the next moving average, a volume shelf where price has previously spent time, or the prior low. That keeps the stop honest rather than flattering the setup.
Past three-quarters of the way to target, I stop. The remaining reward no longer pays for the risk, so the rating steps back to Neutral and I wait for the next setup rather than chase a move that has already happened.
"Tactical" means a shorter horizon. A tactical overweight or underweight runs against the prevailing direction, such as a bounce inside a downtrend. It is a trade back to the first resistance overhead, not a call that the trend has changed.
Neutral is not a shrug. It means risk and reward are close enough to balanced that I would rather wait, and on this board it is comfortably the most common rating.
The YX TA Bias reflects technical analysis only. It is separate from my quantitative models and fundamental research and may differ from them. For education only, not investment advice.
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