Hi YXI friends,
Today was a broad break, not a rotation. QQQ has run to 125% of S1.a and is testing the 100-day MA, and the AI complex went with it: nine ratings changed and eight of them went down. The board now reads one Overweight, thirteen Underweight and twenty-one Neutral, against three Overweights and ten Underweights on July 14.
The semis went together. AMD lost the 50-day and the mid-July low, MU failed at the 50-day and its trendline, INTC broke its support shelf and the 100-day, LRCX broke out of the rising channel it has held since 2025, and WDC and SNDK both gave up the 100-day. Six downgrades across compute, equipment and storage in one session. MRVL, ARM and QCOM were already underweight and each took another step down, MRVL through the 100-day and QCOM through the 200-day.
TSM, ASML, KLAC and AMAT are all sitting on the bottom of channels that have held since 2025, and TXN is on the trendline it has held since May. These are the lines that decide next week.
One name is still long. ANET is above the 100-day with higher highs and higher lows, and it remains the cleanest risk-reward on the board. AVGO and VRT both come off: AVGO could not reclaim the 50-day, VRT broke its trendline. Neither is a change of view, and both go straight back on if those levels are reclaimed.
The upgrades are not bullish calls. NBIS, HUT and OKLO move to Neutral because their down-legs have run three-quarters or more of the way to target, i.e. the moves are now mature.
EQIX moves up because the range has re-established rather than broken, and CRWV stays underweight for the mirror reason: S2 is only two-thirds done. In power, CEG goes underweight with the bottom of its channel as the target, NRG stays there, and TLN is one I would rather buy at the floor than short into it.
One note on timing. Most of today's downgrades were taken intraday rather than on the close. Where a break is small I would wait, but a name that has cut through its trendline by several percent is not closing back above it. The marginal ones are still Neutral: TXN is sitting on its trendline and AMAT just under it, and both get the downgrade only if they fail to find a bounce.
Table of Contents
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
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Macro Regime
Equity Indices
If you haven’t already, please read our Appendix: Chart Label Guidance at the bottom of this article before proceeding.
SPY: S&P 500
Price Structure: Range
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 27, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
SPY could not reclaim the 50-day MA at $744 and closed at $739.09, which leaves S1.c in play. The $720-722 shelf below has floored every dip since June.
I remain neutral. Price sits mid-range, and the reward up to $758 is no better than the risk down to the 100-day MA at $714.75.
QQQ: Nasdaq 100
Price Structure: Breakdown
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 27, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
QQQ has reached 125% of S1.a. This is an extended selloff which could see a bounce off the 100-day MA today.
I remain neutral, as S1.b has reached its original target. If QQQ closes below the 100-day MA today, it could open $640 at the 200-day MA more directly.
IWM: Russell 2000
Price Structure: Pullback
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 27, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
IWM is holding the 50-day MA. S3 has now reached 75% of S2.
I remain neutral. The reward back to the $303.16 high is $10 against $16 of risk down to the 100-day MA at $276.69 if the price chanel breaks.
Semiconductors — Compute & Memory
AMD: Advanced Micro Devices
Price Structure: Breakdown
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Underweight (Downgrade)
AMD has definitively broken below the 50-day MA and the mid-July low. This signals that R2.b has potentially topped, with the 100-day MA as the immediate downside target and the 200-day being the secondary target. I move to Underweight.
AVGO: Broadcom
Price Structure: Range
Previous YX TA Bias: Overweight (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral (Downgrade)
AVGO is stuck between the key MAs, unable to reclaim the 50-day. I move down to Neutral for now. If it breaks above the 50-day MA, I am comfortable moving back to Overweight.
MRVL: Marvell
Price Structure: Breakdown
Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Underweight
MRVL has broken below the 100-day MA, now pointing directly towards the 200-day MA as the next potential downside target. I stay Underweight.
CRDO: Credo Technology
Price Structure: Pullback
Previous YX TA Bias: None
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral (New)
CRDO has slipped below the 50-day MA but is still inside the rising channel that has held since 2025. S2 reached about 90% of S1, and the current potential S3 targets $125.
I start at neutral, as the price holds above the 100-day MA for now. However, past sell-offs in this name have cut through the 50-, 100- and 200-day MAs in a single move.
ARM: Arm Holdings
Price Structure: Breakdown
Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Underweight
ARM's rising structure is broken, with price now moving in a downtrend channel and challenging the 100-day MA.
I stay Underweight. A close below it typically drags in the 200-day as well.
TSM: TSMC
Price Structure: Pullback
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
TSM is sitting at the bottom of its rising channel. R2 is likely to have topped near 100% of R1.
I remain neutral. Holding the channel keeps the uptrend intact. Losing it would be the first genuine break in a structure that has run for over a year.
ASML: ASML
Price Structure: Pullback
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
ASML is dipping below the 100-day MA and back on the bottom of its rising channel.
I remain neutral here, but if it breaks below the price channel support, I would move Underweight.
MU: Micron
Price Structure: Breakdown
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Underweight (Downgrade)
MU has failed to reclaim its 50-day MA and the trendline resistance. From here, it will likely test the 100-day MA, if not the 200-day MA, establishing a downtrend.
I move Underweight here, as the risk (moving back above 50D) vs reward (targetting 200D) appears justified on the downside.
QCOM: Qualcomm
Price Structure: Downtrend
Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Underweight
QCOM broke below the 200-day MA today, continuing the S2.c path down, towards $140. While S2.c appears half complete, the momentum stays downwards. I am happy to move back to Neutral when the move further matures (e.g. around $155).
TXN: Texas Instruments
Price Structure: Range
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
TXN is sitting on the trendline support established since May, although today’s price action appears to favour a potential breakdown. If it breaks below the price channel, there is a potential double top at $332.
I stay neutral here to see if it can hold the support.
INTC: Intel
Price Structure: Breakdown
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Underweight (Downgrade)
INTC has broken its support shelf and the 100-day MA. The previous rally, R1.b, hit its target above 100% of R1.a last month.
I move to Underweight here, as historically INTC likely challenges the 200-day MA next, after breaking the 100-day.
Semi Equipment & EDA
AMAT: Applied Materials
Price Structure: Pullback
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
AMAT has fallen below the rising trendline that has held this move since 2025. R3 is an extended run at 140% of R2 and 110% of R1.
I remain neutral, but ready to downgrade if it fails to find a bounce and breaks below the 100-day MA.
LRCX: Lam Research
Price Structure: Breakdown
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Underweight (Downgrade)
LRCX has broken the bottom of its rising channel and the 100-day MA, marking the end of the R3 run. R3 was already extended at 150% of R2.
I move to Underweight, as breaking down from the upwards structure could be the beginning of a downtrend.
KLAC: KLA
Price Structure: Pullback
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
KLAC has pulled back into its trend channel but is holding just above the trendline support. This keeps me neutral for now.
Hardware, Networking & Storage
ANET: Arista Networks
Price Structure: Uptrend
Previous YX TA Bias: Overweight (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Overweight
ANET is holding above the 100-day MA with higher highs and higher lows, closing at $170.76. R3 repeats R1 at $216 and R2 at $300.
I remain overweight. This is the cleanest structure on the board in terms of risk-reward. However, breaking below the 100-day MA would push me back to Neutral.
DELL: Dell
Price Structure: Pullback
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
DELL has broken the 50-day MA today but remains in a sideways range. I remain Neutral here, but a breakdown from the range will push me to Underweight.
CSCO: Cisco
Price Structure: Pullback
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
I have relabelled the CSCO chart, with R4 at roughly 100% of R3. There are patterns of rallies with similar extents.
I remain neutral. The target is in, so there is nothing left of this leg to rate, and consolidation is the risk while price sits below the 50-day.
In the near term, I am watching how the price interacts within the new downward channel, along the supporting trendline just above the May gap.
WDC: Western Digital
Price Structure: Breakdown
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Underweight (Downgrade)
WDC has breached the 100-day MA for the first test since summer 2025.
I move underweight here as historically, a breach of the 100-day tends to lead to a revisit of the 200-day MA.
SNDK: SanDisk
Price Structure: Breakdown
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Underweight (Downgrade)
SNDK has fallen well below the bottom of its rising channel. It has failed to reclaim the 50-day and is now sitting under the 100-day. There is little volume between here and the 200-day at $822.62.
I move Underweight here.
AI Infrastructure & Data Centres
CRWV: CoreWeave
Price Structure: Downtrend
Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Underweight
CRWV is approaching its November low. S2 has completed 2/3 of S1. I am ready to move back to Neutral once S2 progresses more than 75% of S1.
NBIS: Nebius
Price Structure: Downtrend
Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral (Upgrade)
NBIS broke below the 100-day MA today.
I upgrade to neutral due to the maturity of the move. The risk of testing the 200-day is real, but S2 has completed over ¾ of S1, so we could be close to the last mile here.
IREN: IREN
Price Structure: Downtrend
Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Underweight
IREN has failed to reclaim the 100-day MA on a positive catalyst. S2 targets $23.
I stay underweight here as IREN likely tests the bottom of the channel at least. I would upgrade to Neutral when we are close.
VRT: Vertiv
Price Structure: Range
Previous YX TA Bias: Overweight (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral (Downgrade)
VRT is consolidating in a similar pattern it built in October and November 2025, except that it is moving significantly below the 100-day this time.
I move to Neutral as today’s price broke below the trendline. It is a stop-loss practice - we can move back to Overweight if the price can find consolidation in the near-term.
EQIX: Equinix
Price Structure: Range
Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral (Upgrade)
EQIX hit the R2 target at 115% of R1 and is now consolidating sideways between $1,010 and $1,128.
I upgrade to neutral, as the latest move has re-established a sideways range rather than a downtrend.
A potential double top sits at $1,128. Losing the $1,010 shelf would confirm the breakdown and put me back to underweight.
HUT: Hut 8
Price Structure: Pullback
Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral (Upgrade)
HUT is holding above the 100-day MA and still inside the uptrend channel. S3 targets $86 at 75% of S1 and $73 at 100%.
I upgrade to neutral as S3 has matured. S3 may already equate to S2 and be finished, but in S1 there was one more retest of the 100-day before the next leg up.
AI Power & Nuclear
VST: Vistra
Price Structure: Range
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
VST continues to move in a wide sideways range. It keeps me Neutral.
CEG: Constellation Energy
Price Structure: Downtrend
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Underweight (Downgrade)
CEG is in a broad downtrend and under all key MAs today. S2 targets $194.80 at 100% of S1.
I move to Underweight, as the reward for the downside target (near bottom of the channel) justifies the risk of a breakout on the upper boundary of the channel here.
OKLO: Oklo
Price Structure: Downtrend
Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral (Upgrade)
OKLO remains well below all three MAs in a downtrend. S3 has reached 75% of S2, with 100% down at $30.70.
I upgrade to neutral. The leg is three-quarters done, and I do not stay short into the last quarter of a move.
CCJ: Cameco
Price Structure: Downtrend
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
CCJ remains below all three MAs. S2 is extended at 150% of S1, though downside momentum persists.
I remain neutral. The measured leg is already past 100%, so the short has done its work.
GEV: GE Vernova
Price Structure: Pullback
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
GEV fell below the 50-day and 100-day MAs. R3 has run 75% of R2, with 100% at $1,480.
I remain neutral. The $1,480 target is still a long way up, but R3 has already run three-quarters of the way there and turned back below the key MAs. There is a risk that it could retest the 200-day MA before the next leg starts.
TLN: Talen Energy
Price Structure: Range
Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Neutral
TLN is below all three MAs, in the lower third of the $302-443 range that has held since late 2025.
I remain neutral, but don’t mind playing the rebound after it hits the lower channel bound.
NRG: NRG Energy
Price Structure: Downtrend
Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 14, 2026)
Current YX TA Bias: Underweight
NRG fell below the 50-day MA again with the 100-day at $144.34 overhead. S3 targets $112.60 at 100% of S1.
I remain underweight.
Appendix: Chart Label Guidance
Every chart gets a clear, scored label. Here's how to read them, so nothing is left to interpretation.
How I set the YX TA Bias
It is a reward-against-risk statement, not a forecast. Every name reads Overweight, Neutral or Underweight based on what the chart offers at today's price, not on where I think price is going.
Structure decides which side I can be on.
Uptrend, breakout, pullback or rebound: Overweight or Neutral only.
Downtrend or breakdown: Underweight or Neutral only.
Range: either one, depending on where price sits between support and resistance.
The target is the next real level, not the nearest moving average. On the long side that means the top of the price channel, the prior high or the all-time high; on the short side it means the next major support, usually the 200-day. Measuring reward to the moving average just overhead understates it and would turn almost every setup Neutral.
Position in the move decides the rating. I measure the distance still to run to target against the distance to the level that proves me wrong. Two to one or better earns a full Overweight or Underweight, and anything less is Neutral. It follows that I get more constructive on a pullback towards support, not on strength into resistance.
The level that proves me wrong is never the support I am pointing at. If a name is holding its trendline, that trendline is the reason I am interested, so the risk is measured to the next level below it: the next moving average, a volume shelf where price has previously spent time, or the prior low. That keeps the stop honest rather than flattering the setup.
Past three-quarters of the way to target, I stop. The remaining reward no longer pays for the risk, so the rating steps back to Neutral and I wait for the next setup rather than chase a move that has already happened.
"Tactical" means a shorter horizon. A tactical overweight or underweight runs against the prevailing direction, such as a bounce inside a downtrend. It is a trade back to the first resistance overhead, not a call that the trend has changed.
Neutral is not a shrug. It means risk and reward are close enough to balanced that I would rather wait, and on this board it is comfortably the most common rating.
The YX TA Bias reflects technical analysis only. It is separate from my quantitative models and fundamental research and may differ from them. For education only, not investment advice.
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