Hi YXI friends,

Please read this opening thoughts on the future direction of the service:

Those who have been with us since Day 1, or even Day 200, would have seen first-hand how many changes we have made in our service. We have massively expanded the surface area of our analytical approaches and coverage. The latest Systematic Portfolio, built on top of proprietary multi-model signals, is a unique service that you cannot find elsewhere - even from the ever-improving LLMs. This was the product of a research flywheel that gained momentum over time. And this was only possible because of your patience and trust in letting me experiment.

At the same time, what I have struggled a bit more with is setting the right analytical content in my discretionary notes - and one may argue whether it’s necessary anymore. The struggle has been visible in how much I have changed the content over the past year, trying to get the universe, analysis, and frequency right. And when I say “right”, that’s not just a “product-market” fit statement, but a “founder-product-market” fit problem.

There is an infinite number of possible combinations of analysis x asset names, but ultimately it has to work for my own “unfair advantage”. Because if I am doing something for its own sake (due to demand), without a distinct “edge”, there will always be something superior elsewhere, probably at a better use of our time.

Here comes my fork in the road. And I would value your input enormously.

I personally lean towards option 2, because it makes more coherent sense for the service. It reduces my surface area to keep up with essentially 2 separate services. I will, however, continue including what my forte has been - the macro, rates, Fed, economic data. We can also continue tracking the indices, maybe in a more integrated approach with the multi-model signals.

Please have a think and let me know your thoughts by clicking the daily poll below and commenting. For the record, I read every single comment here - the poll doesn’t let me “comment back” directly, but I have made a lot of progress with your help.

Thank you!

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

Please check out our glossary for explaining the acronyms, financial terminology, and economic data.

If you haven’t already, please read our Appendix: Chart Label Guidance at the bottom of this article before proceeding.

Price Structure: Uptrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (August 4, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

SPY has broken out to a new all-time high, clearing the $758 line that capped it through June and July and taking R2.b beyond 100% of R2.a. It came on a 1.80% session with RSI at 66.

That marks the Range resolving into an Uptrend. While a new trend is forming, I am sitting on Neutral, as R2.b is now 100% of R2.a. I would prefer to initiate an upgrade on a pullback from here.

Price Structure: Breakout

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (August 4, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

QQQ has cleared both the 50-day MA at $714.71 and the falling trendline that has capped every rally since June, on a 3.40% session. S1.b reached 125% of S1.a at the low, so that selloff leg is complete.

That means the market could be trending higher next (not making a new low). At this point, I am waiting for a pullback to initiate the Upgrade to Overweight.

Tuesday was a two-and-a-half sigma up day for QQQ. The 10 previous occasions are marked above, and 6 of them were from the pre-June sell-off.

The pattern is a flat first week followed by strength, which may help me get a better Upgrade entry this week.

Price Structure: Pullback

Previous YX TA Bias: Overweight (August 4, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight (Tactical)

IWM is back at the $301.93 high with the rising channel intact, having turned at 90% of S2 and run straight back up. RSI is at 61.

I stay tactically Overweight. The target is the top of the channel near $312.

Price Structure: Breakout

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

PLTR has gapped out of the descending channel on earnings, a 29.45% session that reclaims all three moving averages in one move and leaves price at the horizontal shelf near $163. RSI is at 73.

I remain neutral. The structure has genuinely changed, but it is now challenging the previous resistance zone. I would rather wait for a downward retest before moving Overweight.

Price Structure: Breakdown

Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Underweight

ORCL is reattempting the head and shoulders neckline from below, with the old support now turned into resistance. All three moving averages sit well above, from the 50-day at $162.71 up to the 200-day at $180.39.

I stay Underweight. The $97.14 objective at 100% of S1 is still the measured target.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight (Tactical Upgrade)

IBM is still under all three moving averages.

Given that R2 has completed meaningfully, the open gap overhead is now the tactical bull case, and filling it would be a 21.6% move. I move to a tactical Overweight here. However, if it reverts below $215, I would stop out and move back to Neutral.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

CRM has reclaimed the 50- and 100-day MAs and is pushing toward the top of the descending channel with RSI at 64. This is the same pattern as May, when a brief 100-day reclaim preceded a new selloff.

I remain neutral. The 200-day MA at $203.69 is the most decisive test for the structure, and until that is reclaimed the downtrend stands.

Price Structure: Rebound

Previous YX TA Bias: Overweight (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight (Tactical)

NOW has the 50-day MA crossing above the 100-day with a run of higher lows behind it, and R2 is developing. The 200-day at $124.27 is the real test, just overhead.

I stay tactically Overweight. The bullish path repeats the March to June rally toward $160, with the 50-day MA as the invalidation. This stays a counter-trend call until the 200-day is reclaimed.

Price Structure: Uptrend, Extended

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

SNOW has reached the R2 target at 100% of R1, the $309.97 level I flagged last week, and RSI is at 77.

I remain neutral. The measured move is in, although the trend has not turned.

Price Structure: Uptrend, Extended

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

DDOG is through the R3 target at 100% of R1 and above all key moving averages, with RSI at 70. The trend has not turned.

I remain neutral. The measured target is behind us, so this is not a leg I would initiate, although an extended R3 is typical for this name.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

INTU has rallied back to the top of the descending channel, sitting between the 50-day MA at $290.22 and the 100-day at $346.38. S2 reached 75% of S1 at its low.

I remain neutral. The trendline resistance has capped the rallies this year, and a rejection here would start a new leg toward the unfinished $205.58 objective. That rejection is what moves me Underweight, while a close above the 100-day invalidates the downside case instead.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

ADBE has rallied back to the top of the descending channel, above the 50- and 100-day MAs but still under the 200-day at $275.66. S2 is past 125% of Selloff 1, with S2.c at roughly 135% of S2.a.

I remain neutral. The measured move is well beyond 100%, so the downside objective is largely in. However, the 200-day MA remains a significant obstacle for breaking out of the downtrend.

Price Structure: Uptrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

CRWD has run 15% off the 50-day MA it was sitting on last week, and R2b is closing on the 100% target at $235.21.

I remain neutral, as the rally has matured in length.

Price Structure: Uptrend, Extended

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

PANW is holding above the 50-day MA at $309.55 with R2 approaching 100% of R1 at $403.50. The double top is a risk here, but price is not fading yet.

I remain neutral. R2 is 90% of the way to its target, which is mature.

Price Structure: Uptrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Overweight (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight

NET is above all three moving averages, with R4 repeating R3 toward $460 and a little over half of that leg run. RSI is at 71.

I remain overweight. The leg is not mature and the trend is intact. A break of the 100-day MA at $230.17 is still the first sign I am wrong.

Price Structure: Uptrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

FTNT has carried the breakout and retest higher, and R2 is now 91% of the way to the $178.39 target at 100% of R1.

I remain neutral. The leg is into its last 10%, so the upside objective is largely in.

Price Structure: Breakout

Previous YX TA Bias: Overweight (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight

ZS has followed through on the breakout and retest of the downtrend channel, holding above the 50- and 100-day MAs with just over half of R2 run toward the $201.08 target.

I remain overweight. The leg has room and the retest held. Losing the July low still invalidates my read, and the 200-day MA at $188.55 is the last real resistance before the target.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

NFLX is retesting the broken head and shoulders neckline from below and stays under all key moving averages. S2 is almost 100% of S1 at the $60.16 objective.

I remain neutral. The measured leg is nearly done, so I would not initiate against it here, but this retest is where the next move gets decided.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

UBER is printing lower lows and lower highs, with all three moving averages stacked overhead from the 50-day at $71.73 up to the 200-day at $78.35. The rebound I expected has not come.

I remain neutral. Price is back in the rising channel support but still below the key MAs.

Price Structure: Breakdown, Failed breakout

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

APP is still inside the descending channel and below all key moving averages, the nearest being the 100-day at $467.71. R2 failed to break out and has not recovered since.

I remain neutral. The failed breakout has calmed my bullish enthusiasm. I want to see how it retests the lows next.

Price Structure: Rebound

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Underweight (Tactical Downgrade)

After earnings, BKNG has rebounded into the top of the descending channel and is back above all three moving averages, with the 200-day at $184.64 now underneath.

I move to tactically Underweight. The structure has not changed yet, and the risk-reward for downside looks appealing here. I would target the middle of the channel, with a stop at the all-time-high (about 2:1 risk-reward).

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

TTD has reclaimed the 50-day MA at $19.25 but is still under the 100-day at $20.99, and S3 has run only 50% of S2.

I remain neutral. The structure is a downtrend, but this is a crowded name where a squeeze can run a long way, and earnings are the near-term risk in both directions. I would rather see how it comes out of the print before re-rating it.

Price Structure: Range

Previous YX TA Bias: Overweight (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight

RDDT has lost both the 50- and 100-day MAs and is sitting on the rising channel support that has held since 2025, with RSI at 42.

I remain Overweight, as the risk-reward of an upside reversal towards the top of the channel continues to look appealing.

Price Structure: Breakout

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

DUOL is out of the downtrend channel with the 50-day MA crossed above the 100-day, working its way up the rising channel. The 200-day at $144.69 is the real test just overhead.

I remain neutral. Above the 200-day MA, things will look interesting.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

COIN has lost the 50-day MA at $162.60 and is holding above the head and shoulders neckline near $140, with all three moving averages now overhead.

I remain neutral. The neckline still holds, but a breakdown could send me Underweight. If we can get past the height of the Right Shoulder, then the structure starts to look more bullish.

Price Structure: Breakdown

Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Underweight

MSTR is retesting the broken head and shoulders neckline from below, with all three moving averages overhead from the 50-day at $109.92 up to the 200-day at $155.81.

I stay Underweight. The measured move points to $38.76 and two-thirds of it is still to run, so this leg has plenty left. A close back above the MA cluster would invalidate my read.

Price Structure: Rebound

Previous YX TA Bias: Overweight (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight (Tactical)

HOOD has the 50-day MA crossing above the 100-day, which has historically confirmed the trend in this name, and price is holding well above the 100-day at $86.77. The 200-day at $98.87 is the first line overhead.

I stay tactically Overweight. We could target $126 on the way to the R4 repeat at $300, with the 100-day still the invalidation, which is close to three times the risk. This stays a counter-trend call until the 200-day is reclaimed.

Price Structure: Uptrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Overweight (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight

V is above all three moving averages and pushing up the rising channel, with S2 likely ended and R3 pointing at $527 at 100% of R1. RSI is at 66.

I remain overweight. Only about a quarter of R3 has run, so the leg has room, and the moving average cluster around $330 is still the invalidation.

Price Structure: Breakout

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight (Upgrade)

MA has held the breakout out of the descending channel, staying above all three moving averages with the 200-day at $526.41 underneath. R3 points to $928 at 100% of R1 and only about a fifth of it has run.

I upgrade to Overweight. This is the follow-through I said I wanted before rating it. We could target $928, with invalidation on a close back inside the channel below the 200-day at $526.41.

Price Structure: Breakout

Previous YX TA Bias: Overweight (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight

XOM is holding the breakout from its price channel, above the key moving averages and the head and shoulders neckline it reclaimed last week. R2.a is halfway to the all-time high at $174.52.

I remain overweight. The leg has half its run left, but falling below the support zone in green would invalidate this call.

Price Structure: Breakout

Previous YX TA Bias: Overweight (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight

CVX is holding above all three moving averages after breaking out of its channel, with R2.a about two-thirds of the way to the $204.55 all-time high.

I remain overweight. The leg still has room, and falling back into the price channel is what invalidates the move, as I said last week.

Price Structure: Uptrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Overweight (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight

LNG has reclaimed the 100-day MA at $255.05 and sits in the lower half of the long-term rising channel. The channel is wide and volatile, so position sizing is key here.

I remain overweight. The reward back to the top of the channel is several times the risk down to the 200-day MA at $232.61, which is still the invalidation.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

NEM has bounced off the trendline that has held since 2025 and is back at the 50-day MA at $98.34, though still beneath all three moving averages. R3 ran 125% of R2.

I remain neutral. The trendline has not completely break down yet - but close!

Price Structure: Breakout

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight (Upgrade)

FCX has reclaimed both the 50- and 100-day MAs and is back above the $63.39 line I said would put the breakout back on. R2 is through 100% of R1 with 125% at $73.81 next.

I upgrade to Overweight. The multi-year range breakout is back in force and $89.93 sits beyond that first objective. The 100-day MA at $62.32 is the invalidation, and losing it would mean the breakout has failed twice.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Underweight (Downgrade)

RKLB has bounced 17% off the low and is coming back to the 200-day MA at $77.82 from below, the level that served as key support until it broke. The new downtrend is intact.

I move to Underweight. This is the bounce into resistance I said I would wait for. We can target the previous support zone at $37, with the 50D as invalidation.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 29, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

ASTS has rallied 24% off the low but is still 15% below the moving average cluster around $81, which converged after the double top. The new downtrend is intact.

I remain neutral. This is more of a timing issue. The bounce has not reached the key MAs yet, let alone been rejected there, and that rejection is the trigger I set. The cluster is at least close enough now for the stop to be workable, which it was not last week.

Every chart gets a clear, scored label. Here's how to read them, so nothing is left to interpretation.

How I set the YX TA Bias

The YX TA Bias reflects technical analysis only. It is separate from my quantitative models and fundamental research and may differ from them. For education only, not investment advice.

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