Hi YXI friends,

The three software underweights we flagged previously, CRM, INTU and ADBE, have each reached or passed their measured downside target. I have put them back to Neutral. That is not a call that they have bottomed. It is a mature selloff move being banked rather than chased. Ten ratings move up, three move down, and today’s board now reads six Overweight, two of them tactical, twenty-seven Neutral and one Underweight.

The potentially overlooked rally candidates are in energy. XOM and CVX have both broken out of their channels and reclaimed their key MAs, with the all-time high as the target and support a few percent below, and LNG sits in the lower half of a long-term rising channel.

Against that, the three names I was overweight going in, UBER, APP and FCX, have each lost the structure that justified the call and step down to Neutral.

NET, ZS and RDDT are unchanged and remain the cleanest long-side setups on this board.

I am aware that there are lots of “Neutral”s. I am keen to refine our ratings as we progress, but not to attach Overweight and Underweight labels loosely for its own sake.

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

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The macro surface on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 printed risk appetite at +0.18z, liquidity at +0.63z and inflation at -0.48z.

The standout is liquidity, which jumped from -0.02z on July 27 to +0.63z, the strongest reading in the five-day window.

Risk appetite has round-tripped. It sat at -1.46z on July 23, then recovered to -0.11z, +0.21z and now +0.18z.

Inflation sits at -0.48z, up slightly from -0.65z on July 27 but well below the +0.19z print of July 22. The 5Y breakeven at 2.16%, down 0.12 over the week, corroborates the disinflationary tilt.

I favour holding existing risk here rather than chasing, given risk appetite has already done the heavy lifting off the July 23 low.

If you haven’t already, please read our Appendix: Chart Label Guidance at the bottom of this article before proceeding.

Price Structure: Range

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 28, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

SPY is still capped by the 50-day MA at $743.98 and the falling trendline off $758, with the $720 shelf underneath. S1.c stays in play.

I remain neutral. Price sits mid-range, and the 100-day at $715.34 is further below than the trendline is above.

Price Structure: Breakdown

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 28, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

QQQ has run to 125% of S1.a and is sitting on the 100-day MA at $672.48, with RSI down at 36.

I remain neutral, as S1.b is already past its measured target. A close below the 100-day opens $640 at the 200-day, and the semis will lead that.

Price Structure: Pullback

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 28, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

IWM is holding the 50-day MA and the bottom of the rising channel again. S3 has reached 75% of S2 and two-thirds of S1.

I remain neutral. The natural stop beyond the channel is the 100-day at $277.01, which is wider than three times the daily range.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

PLTR fell 6.1% to $123.53 and remains below all three MAs, having tried and failed to reclaim the 50-day for a month. S2 has run 80% of S1.

I remain neutral. The selloff leg is into its last quarter, so I am not pressing the short. At the same time, it's too early to confirm the next rally within the downtrend.

Price Structure: Breakdown

Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Underweight

ORCL has broken the head-and-shoulders neckline and closed at $119.96 with RSI at 33. The $97 objective at 100% of S1 is 19% below.

The move is 80% of the way to that target, but the downside momentum persists. I am comfortable keeping the Underweight rating until the momentum fades or reverts.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: None

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral (New)

IBM has broken the rising channel it held since 2023 and sits below all three MAs, closing at $227.55 after a 5.2% bounce. R2 ran 125% of R1, and the retracement is exactly a third of the post-COVID rally.

I start at neutral. The structure is a new downtrend, but R2 is extended enough that a relief rally is the near-term risk to any short. I want to see a failed retest of the 100-day at $249.51 first.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral (Upgrade)

CRM bounced 4.6% to $181.50 and is back above the 100-day MA, with S3 having reached 75% of S2 at its low. RSI is at 61.

I upgrade to neutral, as S3 has matured (past the 75% mark) with a late rebound (i.e. downside momentum reversed). However, I remain cautious, as this is the same pattern as in May, when a brief 100-day reclaim preceded a new selloff. The 200-day at $205.06 is the test that decides the structure.

Price Structure: Rebound

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight (Tactical Upgrade)

NOW rose 4.8% to $110.62, with the 50-day crossing above the 100-day and a run of higher lows behind it. S2 is beyond 150% of S1.

I upgrade to tactically overweight. The setup is a potential repeat of the March-June rally towards $160. However, it is a tactical, lower-confidence read in a consolidation phase after a large downtrend. It is not a call that the trend has turned, and a potential S3 is not ruled out.

Price Structure: Uptrend, Extended

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

SNOW is holding well above all three MAs at $270.36. R2 has no clear sub-rallies and is still short of 100% of R1 at $309.97.

I remain neutral. The leg is 80% of the way to that target.

Price Structure: Uptrend, Extended

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

DDOG sits above all key MAs at $250.88, with R3 having reached 100% of R1 at $264.73 and the trend not turned.

I remain neutral. The target is effectively in, though an extended R3 is typical for this name.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral (Upgrade)

INTU rose 3.0% to $312.99, back above the 50-day and sitting on the 50% retracement. S2 reached 75% of S1 but not 100%.

I upgrade to neutral, as S2 has matured (past 75% of target move) and the downside momentum has dissipated.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral (Upgrade)

ADBE rose 4.8% to $249.18 and is back above the 50- and 100-day MAs. S2 is already 125% of Selloff 1, with sub-selloffs S2.a to S2.c complete.

I upgrade to neutral. The measured move is past 100%, so the short has done its work. Moreover, momentum has recently reverted to the upside, which means a decreased likelihood for an extended S2.c.

Price Structure: Pullback

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

CRWD has pulled back from the R2b spike to $181.80 and is sitting on the 50-day MA. R2b reached 90% of R2a.

I remain neutral. The natural stop beyond the 50-day is the 100-day at $144.62, more than three times the daily range away.

Price Structure: Uptrend, Extended

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

PANW is holding above the 50-day at $300.45, with R2 approaching 100% of R1 at $403.50. There could be a double top forming, but price is not fading yet.

I remain neutral.

Price Structure: Uptrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Overweight (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight

NET is above all three MAs at $264.10, with R4 repeating R3 toward $460 and only about 40% of that leg run.

I remain overweight. The breaking 100-day at $226.10 is the first sign I’m wrong.x

Price Structure: Uptrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

FTNT has come back to the 50-day at $147.82 after the breakout and retest, with R2 at 90% of R1.

I remain neutral. The rally is into its last quarter.

Price Structure: Breakout

Previous YX TA Bias: Overweight (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight

ZS has broken out of the downtrend channel and retested it, closing at $151.63 above the 50- and 100-day MAs. R2 targets $200 at 100% of R1, with only 40% of it run.

I remain overweight. Losing the July low would invalidate my read.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

NFLX has broken the head-and-shoulders neckline and retested it from below, closing at $72.39 under all key MAs. S2 is almost 100% of S1.

I am a little torn on the positioning. NFLX is in a clear bearish trend, but S2 has matured. Therefore, I stay neutral and monitor the next bounce - if it gets rejected by the 50-day MA, we could initiate an Underweight rating for a new S3 sell-off.

Price Structure: Breakdown

Previous YX TA Bias: Overweight (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral (Downgrade)

UBER bounced 3.8% to $70.74, but it is breaking down from the range it has held since 2024. All three MAs now sit overhead at $72-79. I had expected a rebound, but it has not come.

I downgrade to neutral. A breakdown invalidates the long-side bias. A further down move below the recent low can push me to Underweight.

Price Structure: Breakdown, Failed breakout

Previous YX TA Bias: Overweight (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral (Downgrade)

APP's R2 failed to break out of the descending channel and price is back below all key MAs at $418.22, with RSI at 40.

I downgrade to neutral. The failed breakout removes the long side bias.

Price Structure: Rebound

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

BKNG jumped 6.7% to $199.31, straight into the top of the descending channel with RSI at 69. The structure has not changed yet.

I remain neutral.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

TTD rose 5.8% to $18.91 but stays below all key MAs with lower lows. S3 is only 50% of S2 so far.

I remain neutral - there are earnings next week, which is a key event risk that could see a change in structure.

Price Structure: Range

Previous YX TA Bias: Overweight (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight

RDDT is at $178.44, holding the 50-day at $174.74 in the lower half of its range, with R3 pointing to $400 at 100% of R2. A head-and-shoulders is the live risk to watch.

I remain overweight.

Price Structure: Breakout

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

DUOL rose 6.0% to $140.73, out of the downtrend channel with the 50-day crossing above the 100-day. The 200-day at $149.52 is the real test.

I remain neutral. There has been no retest yet to buy against.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

COIN is holding above the head-and-shoulders neckline at $167.90, on the 50-day but below the 100- and 200-day.

I remain neutral. The neckline decides this one.

Price Structure: Breakdown

Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Underweight

MSTR fell 2.5% to $96.16, rejected after the neckline break and below all three MAs. The measured move points to $38.76 at 100% of the pattern, with two-thirds of it still to run.

I stay underweight.

Price Structure: Rebound

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight (Tactical Upgrade)

HOOD fell 3.0% to $92.76, but the 50-day has crossed above the 100-day, which has historically confirmed the trend in this name. R4 repeats R2 toward $300.

I upgrade to tactically overweight for the next leg, with the 100-day at $86.24 as the invalidation. The 200-day at $100.14 is the first line overhead, and this stays a counter-trend trade until that is reclaimed.

Price Structure: Uptrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight (Upgrade)

V rose 1.1% to $366.59, above all three MAs, with R3 pointing to $527 at 100% of R1. S2 is likely finished at this point.

I upgrade to Overweight, with a target towards $527 and invalidation below the MA cluster.

Price Structure: Breakout

Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral (Upgrade)

MA rose 2.0% to $562.75, out of the descending channel and above all three MAs. R3 points to $928 at 100% of R1, and S2 retraced only a third of R2.

I upgrade to neutral. The breakout takes the short off. If it can show a follow-through, R3 could have started, and I would be happy to upgrade it to Overweight.

Price Structure: Breakout

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight (Upgrade)

XOM has broken out of its price channel and reclaimed both the key MAs and the head-and-shoulders neckline, closing at $153.04. R2.a targets the all-time high at $174.52, which is 100% of R1.a.

I upgrade to overweight.

Price Structure: Breakout

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight (Upgrade)

CVX has broken out of its channel and started a new rally, closing at $187.58. R2.a targets the all-time high beyond $204.55, which is 100% of R1.a.

I upgrade to overweight. There is room to run higher after this breakout, and I would invalidate the move if it falls back into the price channel.

Price Structure: Uptrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight (Upgrade)

LNG is at $252.18, in the lower half of the long-term rising channel and between the 50- and 100-day MAs. The channel is wide and volatile, which is the caution here.

I upgrade to overweight. The reward back to the top of the channel is roughly three times the risk down to the 200-day at $231.78, and that stop still sits inside three times the daily range.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

NEM fell 2.1% to $91.52, below all three MAs and sitting on the trendline that has held since 2025. R3 ran 125% of R2.

I remain neutral. Breakdown danger is imminent, but the trendline has not gone yet. A close below it takes me underweight.

Price Structure: Breakout

Previous YX TA Bias: Overweight (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral (Downgrade)

FCX fell 1.7% to $61.64, back below both the 50- and 100-day MAs after the attempt to break out of a multi-year range.

I downgrade to neutral. The breakout has not held, and there is no measured target above the July high to price the long side against. Reclaiming $63.39 puts it back on.

Price Structure: Breakdown

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

RKLB fell 4.6% to $63.89. The 200-day MA had served as key support and is now decisively broken, which starts a new downtrend.

I remain neutral for now. RSI at 33 is already stretched and the stop back above the 200-day at $77.82 is 22% away. I would rather sell a bounce into it.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 15, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

ASTS fell 3.0% to $56.55, below the double top and below all three MAs, which have converged at $83.

I remain neutral. That MA cluster is the only honest stop and it sits 47% above, far wider than three times the daily range. I would move Underweight after the next bounce gets rejected by the key MAs.

Every chart gets a clear, scored label. Here's how to read them, so nothing is left to interpretation.

How I set the YX TA Bias

The YX TA Bias reflects technical analysis only. It is separate from my quantitative models and fundamental research and may differ from them. For education only, not investment advice.

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