COMMODITIES · BEFORE EVERY US OPEN

A dedicated Commodities portfolio, built to work when equities do not.

Metals, energy, agriculture and uranium, plus the producers behind them. The same four models read all of them overnight. Ten names or fewer come out, each with an exact weight.

It runs off its own universe, separate from Macro & Megacaps. That is why the two rarely have a bad month together.

Start the free first month →See a published morning →

01What lands, and when

One page a morning. The same shape every day.

EVERY MONDAY

The re-optimised portfolio. Every holding, its exact weight, and the cash level beside it.

EVERY MORNING

Any overnight change, plus the model read on every name in the universe, before the US open.

EVERY WEEK

The scorecard, covering the portfolio and how the signals did on each ticker.

02Why hold it

The case is not the headline return. It is when the return turns up.

Commodities move to their own clock. In the ten-year backtest this portfolio was calmer than the index and fell less far at its worst. In 2022 it rose while the index fell.

14.1%

BACKTESTED VOLATILITY

S&P 500 17.2%

−15.3%

BACKTESTED WORST DRAWDOWN

S&P 500 −32.0%

+19.6%

BACKTEST, 2022

S&P 500 −18.7%

~25%

AVERAGE CASH

Cash is a position here

All four figures come from the backtest, net of costs, on data the models never saw. The live record starts 3 August 2026.

Already on a Macro & Megacaps tier?

Commodities is a third off beside either one. The code comes by email once you are subscribed.

See what it costs →The full record →

03What is covered

The whole complex, plus the companies that dig it up.

The list is fixed and published in advance. Names are added, never quietly dropped, so the record cannot be tidied after the fact.

COMMODITY ETFs · 11

GLDGDXSLVSILPALLPPLTCPERUSOBCIURADBA

PRODUCERS & MINERS · 13

XOMNEMNTRBHPRIOVALEALBDELNGAEMFNVSCCOMP

JOINING NEXT WEEK · 9

PAASAUEOGMPCUNGFANGOXYSHELBP

04The backtest

Commodities: ten years of testing, on data the models had never seen.

Every point used only the data available on that day. It is the same construction that runs live, run backwards over history, with 5 basis points per side already taken out.

BACKTESTED · UNBIASED WALK-FORWARD · NET OF COSTS

1 yearLast 12 months3 yearsRolling three-year5 yearsRolling five-yearFull sample2016 to today

Walk-forward backtest, 1 year window, versus SPY

Walk-forward backtest, 3 years window, versus SPY

Walk-forward backtest, 5 years window, versus SPY

Walk-forward backtest, Full sample window, versus SPY

These curves are backtested. The live record publishes every Monday with the notes, from inception on 3 August 2026.2022 was the last real equity bear market. The index fell 18.67%, worst drawdown 26.29%. This portfolio returned +19.60%, worst fall −11.48%.What a backtest cannot do. It cannot tell you the next ten years will resemble the last ten. Read it as evidence the construction is coherent, never as a forecast.

Backtested results. Long only, unlevered, gross capped at 1.0, net of 5 bps per side. Past backtested performance is not indicative of future returns and this is not investment advice.

05How it decides

Three rules, and none of them need a view on the day.

FOUR MODELS READ EVERY NAME

Machine learning, a neural network, trend and market regime. Each is built to be wrong about different things.

THREE OF FOUR MUST AGREE

That is the bar for holding anything. When agreement thins, the position closes and the money waits in cash.

SIZED BY RISK, CAPPED BY RULE

Up to ten holdings, each sized so no single name decides the year. Long only, never levered.

The whole method, published in full →

06 · BEFORE YOU DECIDE

Read a month of it before you decide anything.

Annual plans carry a free first month. You get the Commodities page exactly as I read it: the four models each morning, the portfolio they build, and the record that says afterwards what came of it. Cancel in-month and pay nothing.

The work is closer to observation than prediction. None of it asks you to be attached to a particular trade, mine included. The market is the thing being read. We are watching it from the same side of the glass.

Start your free month →See what publishes every day

Published for information and education. It is not personalised advice, not a managed account, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Capital is at risk, and past and backtested performance tell you nothing certain about the future.