Every call is locked the day it is made. You can check any of them.
Every signal and every portfolio weight is snapshotted at publication and never edited afterwards. Red weeks stay on this page permanently, because leaving them out is what would make the green ones worthless.
Every trade behind these curves, name by name.
The charts on this page are built from the locked daily series. The blotters are the trades underneath them. Every position the Systematic Portfolio has closed, with every long Multi-model Signals closed beside it. The trades that lost money are on the page too. No card, no login.
SETTLED TO THE END OF LAST MONTH · THE MONTH IN PROGRESS IS IN THE SUBSCRIBER ISSUES
Systematic Portfolio & Signals: Macro & Megacaps, live since 3 August 2026.
MM — Macro & MegacapsALL · 3 Aug – 23 Oct 26· live only · rebased to the window start| Return | Volatility | Max DD | Sharpe | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio (incl. cash) | +4.1% | 13.1% | -4.3% | 1.39 |
| Portfolio assets (ex-cash) | +5.9% | 15.7% | -4.5% | 1.63 |
| SPY (benchmark) | +2.3% | 10.1% | -2.6% | 1.01 |
Macro & Megacaps: ten years of testing, on data the models had never seen.
Every point used only the data available on that day. It is the same construction that runs live, run backwards over history, with 5 basis points per side already taken out.
The backtest ran on the portfolio-eligible universe, not on every name the models read, so the portfolios draw from a subset of the coverage. The backtest universe is smaller than the coverage count above.
Backtested results. Long only, unlevered, gross capped at 1.0, net of 5 bps per side. Past backtested performance is not indicative of future returns and this is not investment advice.
Systematic Portfolio & Signals: Commodities, live since 3 August 2026.
CO — CommoditiesALL · 3 Aug – 23 Oct 26· live only · rebased to the window start| Return | Volatility | Max DD | Sharpe | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio (incl. cash) | -1.5% | 15.2% | -9.2% | -0.35 |
| Portfolio assets (ex-cash) | +1.7% | 18.0% | -9.2% | 0.49 |
| SPY (benchmark) | +2.3% | 10.1% | -2.6% | 1.01 |
Commodities: ten years of testing, on data the models had never seen.
Every point used only the data available on that day. It is the same construction that runs live, run backwards over history, with 5 basis points per side already taken out.
The backtest ran on the portfolio-eligible universe, not on every name the models read, so the portfolios draw from a subset of the coverage. The backtest universe is smaller than the coverage count above.
Backtested results. Long only, unlevered, gross capped at 1.0, net of 5 bps per side. Past backtested performance is not indicative of future returns and this is not investment advice.
Macro & Megacaps and Commodities at 75/25, live since 3 August 2026.
MM_CO_7525 — Macro & Megacaps 75% + Commodities 25% — quarterly rebalancedALL · 3 Aug – 23 Oct 26· live only · rebased to the window start| Return | Volatility | Max DD | Sharpe | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio (incl. cash) | +2.7% | 11.1% | -3.9% | 1.09 |
| Portfolio assets (ex-cash) | +4.8% | 13.3% | -3.9% | 1.58 |
| SPY (benchmark) | +2.3% | 10.1% | -2.6% | 1.01 |
Macro & Megacaps and Commodities at 75/25: ten years of testing, on data the models had never seen.
Every point used only the data available on that day. It is the same construction that runs live, run backwards over history, with 5 basis points per side already taken out.
The backtest ran on the portfolio-eligible universe, not on every name the models read, so the portfolios draw from a subset of the coverage. The backtest universe is smaller than the coverage count above.
Backtested results. Long only, unlevered, gross capped at 1.0, net of 5 bps per side. Past backtested performance is not indicative of future returns and this is not investment advice.
Ten years, month by month, including the bad ones.
A record is only worth reading if the losing months are in it. Below is every calendar month of the backtest for both portfolios, with the S&P 500 beside them on the same bars. Green is a gain, red is a loss, and the shade scales with the size of the move.
These are backtested figures, not live results. The series runs from 21 June 2016 to 31 July 2026, the last bar before the portfolios began trading on 3 August 2026. Both portfolios are unlevered and run on the production construction. The S&P 500 column is total return on the same bars. Every figure here is net of 5 basis points per side, the same basis as the curves above. June 2016 is a partial month, and 2026 compounds only the months to 31 July.
20167 mo+10.1%+7.7%+8.8%
201712 mo+31.4%+8.8%+21.8%
201812 mo+6.8%+7.2%-5.3%
201912 mo+36.0%+28.7%+30.9%
202012 mo+69.5%+37.6%+18.2%
202112 mo+40.9%+19.6%+29.7%
202212 mo-11.5%+17.5%-18.7%
202312 mo+37.5%-6.4%+27.1%
202412 mo+52.6%+1.3%+25.4%
202512 mo+37.6%+54.4%+17.8%
20267 mo+29.9%+2.9%+9.0%
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | -0.1% | +11.8% | -0.7% | -0.6% | -1.7% | +1.0% | +0.6% | +10.1% | |||||
| 2017 | +4.1% | +3.8% | +1.1% | +1.4% | +4.2% | -1.1% | +1.6% | +3.9% | +1.6% | +6.0% | -0.1% | +1.4% | +31.4% |
| 2018 | +6.4% | -2.8% | -1.2% | +0.0% | +4.5% | -0.2% | +3.9% | +5.7% | +1.7% | -6.7% | +0.8% | -4.8% | +6.8% |
| 2019 | +3.3% | +6.9% | +2.1% | +5.5% | -3.4% | +4.9% | -1.1% | -3.0% | +3.4% | +6.3% | +1.5% | +5.5% | +36.0% |
| 2020 | +2.3% | +1.8% | +1.2% | +3.9% | +7.6% | +3.4% | +7.9% | +8.0% | -4.3% | +0.6% | +13.1% | +9.7% | +69.5% |
| 2021 | +5.1% | +6.8% | +2.1% | +2.9% | +1.1% | +1.1% | +4.1% | +3.6% | -6.2% | +7.4% | +2.1% | +5.5% | +40.9% |
| 2022 | -5.5% | -2.1% | +1.5% | -4.7% | +4.2% | -4.5% | +3.9% | -2.8% | -5.2% | +6.3% | +1.1% | -3.7% | -11.5% |
| 2023 | +3.9% | -1.1% | +5.8% | -1.5% | +9.8% | +5.5% | +1.9% | +1.3% | -3.6% | -0.4% | +7.9% | +3.7% | +37.5% |
| 2024 | +2.3% | +8.9% | +5.1% | -1.0% | -0.2% | +3.9% | +1.1% | +2.0% | +4.4% | -0.1% | +16.8% | +1.0% | +52.6% |
| 2025 | +1.2% | +2.2% | -3.9% | +3.7% | +2.3% | +8.9% | +0.4% | -1.9% | +13.8% | +7.8% | -2.2% | +1.7% | +37.6% |
| 2026 | +5.6% | -2.1% | -2.6% | +17.0% | +10.8% | +1.9% | -2.2% | +29.9% |
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | -0.2% | +1.0% | -3.1% | +3.7% | -0.6% | +4.5% | +2.4% | +7.7% | |||||
| 2017 | +5.6% | +1.4% | -3.8% | -2.4% | +2.5% | -2.6% | +4.0% | +1.9% | -2.6% | +3.6% | -0.9% | +2.2% | +8.8% |
| 2018 | +4.3% | -3.2% | -0.9% | +1.6% | +2.6% | +0.8% | +0.6% | -2.2% | +2.8% | -2.3% | +0.1% | +3.1% | +7.2% |
| 2019 | +4.0% | +1.3% | -1.0% | -2.2% | -1.8% | +10.9% | -0.6% | +9.3% | -3.4% | +4.0% | -1.3% | +7.7% | +28.7% |
| 2020 | -0.5% | +1.1% | -1.0% | +1.1% | +6.4% | +3.0% | +8.2% | +2.5% | -2.7% | -0.5% | +7.9% | +7.7% | +37.6% |
| 2021 | +2.0% | +7.8% | -0.7% | +5.0% | +2.7% | -1.4% | +0.6% | -1.7% | +1.2% | +3.8% | -2.0% | +1.1% | +19.6% |
| 2022 | +4.3% | +8.6% | +2.2% | -3.4% | +2.8% | -6.8% | +2.4% | +1.7% | -1.3% | +0.2% | +8.1% | -1.6% | +17.5% |
| 2023 | +2.3% | -6.7% | +0.7% | +1.3% | -6.6% | -2.9% | +6.0% | -2.0% | -0.3% | -1.7% | +1.3% | +2.7% | -6.4% |
| 2024 | -2.3% | -3.9% | +7.8% | +1.0% | +2.6% | -3.3% | +2.5% | -1.1% | +3.9% | +0.4% | +0.3% | -5.8% | +1.3% |
| 2025 | +4.6% | +1.4% | +3.8% | -0.6% | +5.5% | +1.8% | -0.7% | +5.2% | +11.0% | +2.6% | +2.2% | +8.2% | +54.4% |
| 2026 | +4.3% | +6.4% | +0.1% | +1.0% | -3.7% | -5.8% | +1.1% | +2.9% |
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | -0.8% | +4.5% | +0.5% | -0.4% | -1.3% | +4.1% | +2.0% | +8.8% | |||||
| 2017 | +1.0% | +4.3% | +0.1% | +1.3% | +1.2% | +0.7% | +2.1% | -0.3% | +2.0% | +2.7% | +2.6% | +2.3% | +21.8% |
| 2018 | +5.3% | -2.5% | -4.9% | +2.4% | +1.8% | +0.4% | +3.2% | +3.2% | +0.5% | -6.7% | +1.2% | -8.3% | -5.3% |
| 2019 | +7.2% | +4.3% | +1.7% | +3.9% | -5.9% | +6.4% | +2.9% | -2.2% | +1.1% | +2.8% | +3.5% | +2.3% | +30.9% |
| 2020 | +2.0% | -11.7% | -9.2% | +12.0% | +3.7% | +1.0% | +7.2% | +7.5% | -4.5% | -1.4% | +10.5% | +2.9% | +18.2% |
| 2021 | +1.0% | +2.3% | +3.2% | +5.6% | +0.8% | +1.8% | +2.5% | +3.2% | -3.3% | +4.6% | +1.3% | +3.3% | +29.7% |
| 2022 | -7.2% | -2.1% | +6.3% | -7.5% | -2.4% | -8.6% | +8.3% | -1.9% | -9.2% | +6.8% | +2.3% | -3.3% | -18.7% |
| 2023 | +5.4% | -1.0% | +2.3% | +1.7% | +1.7% | +5.9% | +3.6% | -1.3% | -4.1% | -3.6% | +9.4% | +5.0% | +27.1% |
| 2024 | +2.5% | +4.0% | +3.3% | -2.8% | +3.0% | +4.8% | +0.3% | +2.1% | +2.0% | +0.9% | +4.2% | -1.3% | +25.4% |
| 2025 | +3.0% | -3.6% | -5.8% | -0.4% | +7.6% | +5.1% | +3.6% | +1.3% | +2.7% | +3.3% | -0.6% | +1.2% | +17.8% |
| 2026 | +0.7% | -1.3% | -6.2% | +11.8% | +5.8% | -1.7% | +0.5% | +9.0% |
Monthly figures compound the daily series inside each calendar month, and year totals compound the months. Live results from 3 August 2026 are published separately above, and the two are never blended.
Read a month of it before you decide anything.
Annual plans carry a free first month. You get the Track Record page exactly as I read it: the locked signals every morning, the portfolio they build, and this page saying afterwards what came of it. Cancel in-month and pay nothing.
The work is closer to observation than prediction. None of it asks you to be attached to a particular trade, mine included. The market is the thing being read. We are watching it from the same side of the glass.
Published for information and education. It is not personalised advice, not a managed account, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Capital is at risk. Past and backtested performance tell you nothing certain about the future.