ADP is a payroll provider. Its report for September 2026 said private employers added 90,000 jobs. The jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) put the private-sector gain at 46,000.
The two numbers describe the same month, but they come from different data and different methods. This guide sets out what each one measures, then compares ADP with BLS private payrolls over 42 months of first estimates.
What is the difference between ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls? ADP counts jobs from the payroll records of its own clients, reweighted to match the US economy. BLS surveys employers and also counts government jobs.
ADP: private-sector jobs at more than half a million companies, with more than 26 million employees.
BLS: jobs at about 119,000 businesses and government agencies, so the total includes government.
The comparison: across 42 months of first estimates, the two private-sector gains were within 50,000 jobs of each other in 21 months and more than 100,000 apart in 13.
What ADP measures
The ADP National Employment Report counts jobs from the payroll records of ADP's clients: more than 26 million employees at more than half a million companies. It covers the private sector only. ADP states that the report "is not a survey".
ADP's technical note gives the method in four steps:
Weekly snapshots of the number of employees on each client's payroll.
A matched sample: only establishments that appear in both the current and the previous week count. Employment growth is measured for each.
Weights from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), a count of employment reported by employers that covers more than 95% of US jobs. The weights make the sample match the national mix of industries, states and establishment sizes.
A level: the growth index is applied to a QCEW base level, then seasonally adjusted week by week.
The monthly figure uses the week that includes the 12th of the month. ADP revises the prior month when late client data arrive.
ADP changed the report in 2022. The earlier version was a model that sought to forecast the BLS payroll survey. The current version is built from payroll data. ADP says it is not intended to forecast the BLS report.
How the BLS count differs
The BLS payroll survey is a sample of employers. ADP's records come from one company's clients. Our guide to what Nonfarm Payrolls count and how the survey is collected covers it in full. The table sets the two side by side.
ADP National Employment Report | BLS payroll survey | |
|---|---|---|
Source | Payroll records of ADP's clients | Survey of employers |
Size | More than 26 million employees | About 119,000 businesses and agencies, with 622,000 worksites |
Sectors | Private sector | Private sector and government |
Weighting | Reweighted to QCEW employment by industry, state and size | Sample estimates, benchmarked once a year to unemployment insurance records |
Reference period | The week including the 12th | The pay period including the 12th |
Revisions | Prior month, when late client data arrive | Two monthly revisions, then the annual benchmark |
Source: ADP Research technical note and website; Bureau of Labor Statistics technical note
Both count jobs, not people, so a person with two jobs counts twice. The comparison below uses BLS private payrolls, which leave out government, so both measures cover the same sector.
ADP and BLS private payrolls in the ten most recent months
A first estimate is the figure published for a month before any revision. We took each from Archival FRED (ALFRED), the St. Louis Fed's archive of earlier versions of data, using the version dated the 15th of the following month.
The window is January 2023 to September 2026, after ADP's 2022 change. September to November 2025 are left out, because BLS published those figures late. That leaves 42 months.
Source: ADP Research; Bureau of Labor Statistics; ALFRED (ADPMNUSNERSA, USPRIV); YX Insights
The chart shows the ten most recent months in that set. ADP's first estimate was higher in six and BLS's was higher in four. The widest gap of these ten months was January 2026, when ADP reported 22,000 and BLS reported 172,000.
In February 2026 the two had opposite signs. ADP reported a gain of 63,000 and BLS reported a loss of 86,000.
How far apart the first estimates were
Source: ADP Research; Bureau of Labor Statistics; ALFRED (ADPMNUSNERSA, USPRIV); YX Insights
The chart groups the 42 months into four bands by the size of the gap. The median gap was 51,500 jobs. The two were within 50,000 jobs in 21 months and more than 100,000 apart in 13.
The largest gap was June 2023: ADP reported 497,000 and BLS reported 149,000. Across the 42 months, the mean first estimate was 135,000 a month for ADP and 154,000 for BLS.
Both reported gains in 39 of the 42 months. In three months one was negative and the other positive: October 2024, June 2025 and February 2026.
Do the totals agree?
Source: ADP Research; FRED (ADPMNUSNERSA, USPRIV); Bureau of Labor Statistics; YX Insights
The chart adds up the monthly changes in the current published figures, from December 2022 to September 2026. That is 45 months, three more than the 42 above, because the current figures include September to November 2025. ADP shows 3.93 million private jobs added and BLS shows 3.74 million, a difference of 5%.
These totals average about 87,000 a month for ADP and 83,000 for BLS, against first-estimate means of 135,000 and 154,000. The 2024 and 2025 benchmark revisions lowered the published levels after those first estimates.
The lines separate and meet again. They were 452,000 apart in January 2024 and 186,000 apart in September 2026.
Year by year, the totals differ more. In 2023, ADP shows 2.13 million jobs against 1.79 million for BLS. In 2024, ADP shows 0.77 million against 1.02 million for BLS. In 2025, ADP shows 0.40 million against 0.30 million for BLS.
For 2026 to September, both show 0.63 million.
ADP calls the QCEW the benchmark measure of employment and says it arrives about five months after the end of the quarter. BLS adjusts its sample to unemployment insurance records once a year. The QCEW is built from those records, so both series are tied to the same near-complete employer count.
Over those 45 months, ADP and BLS private payrolls show nearly the same total gain. The first estimates split evenly. In 21 of the 42 months they were within 50,000 jobs of each other. In the other 21 they differed by more than 50,000 jobs.
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Common questions about ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls
Does the ADP report predict the BLS jobs report?
ADP says its report is an independent measure and is not intended to forecast the BLS report. Over 42 months of first estimates, the two were within 50,000 jobs of each other in 21 months and more than 50,000 apart in the other 21. In three months they had opposite signs. So ADP was not a close guide to BLS.
Does ADP include government workers?
No. The ADP National Employment Report covers private-sector employment only. The BLS total for Nonfarm Payrolls includes government, so the fair comparison is ADP against BLS private payrolls. In September 2026 that was 90,000 jobs for ADP against 46,000 for BLS.
What data does the ADP National Employment Report use?
ADP uses the payroll records of its clients, covering more than 26 million employees at more than half a million companies. It takes weekly snapshots, measures employment growth in a matched sample of establishments and applies weights from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. ADP says the report is not a survey.
Which is more accurate, ADP or Nonfarm Payrolls?
The data here cannot rank them month by month. Both are tied to the same near-complete employer count. ADP uses the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which is built from the unemployment insurance records that BLS benchmarks to. From December 2022 to September 2026, their private totals differ by 5%, at 3.93 million and 3.74 million.
DISCLAIMER: This article is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.