The Bank of Japan is the largest owner of Japanese government debt, holding more than twice as much as the next largest. It plans to buy less of it each quarter until 2027, on a schedule it has published.
Planned monthly purchases have gone from about 9 trillion yen to 2.3 trillion. Its holdings are 93.7 trillion yen lower than in March 2024. This guide sets out the schedule, what it has done to the Bank's balance sheet and why the Bank's own publications give two different figures for the same holding.
How much is the Bank of Japan buying? Its planned purchases are 2.3 trillion yen a month for October to December 2026, down from about 9 trillion in December 2022.
The schedule cuts the amount by about 200 billion yen each quarter, reaching about 2 trillion a month from April 2027.
Its holdings of government bonds are 93.7 trillion yen lower than in March 2024, a drop of 15.7%, on the Bank's own accounts.
Its share of the market has gone from 47.9% at the end of 2023 to 41.2% in June 2026, on a market value basis.
How much is the Bank buying?
2.3 trillion yen a month, under a plan that shrinks each quarter until April 2027.
A JGB is a bond the Japanese government issues to fund itself.
Source: Bank of Japan monetary policy statements and JGB purchase plans; YX Insights
Chart 1 tracks the planned monthly purchase. It was 7.3 trillion yen until December 2022 and about 9 trillion after, then about 6 trillion from March 2024. The published quarterly reduction began in July 2024 at 5.7 trillion, falling by about 400 billion each quarter, then by about 200 billion from April 2026.
The Bank gave its reason when it started cutting. In principle, it wrote in July 2024, "long-term interest rates are to be formed in financial markets". That made it "appropriate for the Bank to reduce its purchase amount of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) in a predictable manner".
The schedule now runs to April 2027, when the monthly amount becomes about 2 trillion yen. In June 2026 the Bank added that it "will not conduct interim assessments of the plan" in future.
If long-term interest rates rise rapidly, the July 2024 plan allows "nimble responses by, for example, increasing the amount of JGB purchases".
Why have its holdings fallen?
Bonds are maturing faster than the Bank replaces them.
Source: Bank of Japan Accounts; YX Insights
Chart 2 shows the holding as the Bank's own accounts carry it, on ten sampled dates. It was 287.3 trillion yen in January 2016 and 597.8 trillion by March 2024. It was 504.0 trillion on 20 October 2026.
That is a fall of 93.7 trillion yen, or 15.7%.
The purchase plan is a flow of new buying. The holding is a stock. The two move independently.
Planned purchases for the year to March 2026 came to 42.0 trillion yen, while the holding fell 43.4 trillion over the same period. Bonds matured faster than the Bank bought them; the buying only slowed the fall.
How much of the market does it own?
41.2%, down from a peak of 47.9% at the end of 2023.
Source: Bank of Japan Flow of Funds statistics; YX Insights
Chart 3 plots the Bank's share of Japanese government paper since 2012, when it was 9.6%. The share climbed for a decade, topped out at 47.9% at the end of 2023 and was 41.2% in June 2026.
Our JGB guide covers who owns the rest.
The flow of funds statistics support two figures for this share and both are correct. Measured against all government paper including Treasury bills, the Bank holds 41.2%. Measured against bonds alone, it holds 46.7%. The denominator is the only difference.
Why do the Bank's own figures disagree?
Because it publishes the same holding on two valuation bases.
Bank of Japan publication | JGBs held, 30 June 2026 | Valuation basis |
|---|---|---|
Bank of Japan Accounts | 518.3 trillion yen | Amortised cost, by the moving-average method |
Flow of Funds statistics | 470 trillion yen | Market value |
Difference | 48.3 trillion yen | 5.4 trillion at the end of March 2024 |
Source: Bank of Japan Accounts and Flow of Funds statistics; YX Insights
The table gives both, at the same date. The Bank's ten-day accounts show 518.3 trillion yen of JGBs at 30 June 2026. Its flow of funds statistics show 470 trillion for the same day.
The accounts are kept at amortised cost. The Bank's own accounting rules say yen bonds "shall be valued at amortized cost determined by the moving-average method". The flow of funds figures carry a note saying they are "evaluated on a market value basis".
The gap between them was 5.4 trillion yen at the end of March 2024 and 48.3 trillion at the end of June 2026, the last date both are published for. It widened as yields rose, which is what a gap between cost and market value does.
There is a trap in this. Dividing the accounts figure of 518.3 by the bonds-only market total of 1,006.5 gives 51.5%, which matches neither published share. A figure for what the Bank owns and a figure for the size of the market have to come from the same publication.
The gap is a difference in valuation, not a realised loss.
The Bank plans to buy a quarter of what it planned to buy in December 2022. It holds 93.7 trillion yen less than it did in March 2024. Its share of Japanese government paper has gone from 47.9% to 41.2%.
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Common questions about Bank of Japan bond purchases
How much is the Bank of Japan buying each month?
2.3 trillion yen of Japanese government bonds for October to December 2026, under a plan published in June 2026. The amount falls by about 200 billion yen each quarter until January to March 2027, then settles at about 2 trillion a month from April 2027.
When did the Bank of Japan start reducing its bond purchases?
July 2024, at 5.7 trillion yen a month, down from about 6 trillion. The plan then cut the amount by about 400 billion yen each quarter until January to March 2026, then by about 200 billion each quarter. The plan was about 9 trillion a month from December 2022.
How many JGBs does the Bank of Japan own?
504.0 trillion yen as at 20 October 2026, on the Bank's own accounts, which are kept at amortised cost. That is down from 597.8 trillion in March 2024. On a market value basis the Bank's flow of funds statistics give a different figure, 470 trillion yen at the end of June 2026.
41.2% of all government paper including Treasury bills, or 46.7% of bonds alone, at the end of June 2026. Both come from the Bank's flow of funds statistics and differ only in what goes in the denominator. On that wider measure the share peaked at 47.9% at the end of 2023.
DISCLAIMER: This article is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.