Bitcoin's highest close came 526 days after the 2016 halving and 546 days after the 2020 halving. After the 2024 halving it has come 534 days so far, with that window still open. A halving cuts the reward for adding a block to Bitcoin's ledger in half. We define the high as the highest daily close in the 36 months after the halving, or in the 919 days to 26 October 2026 for the latest.
The size of the move shrank across the three cycles. The high was 28.9 times the halving-day close after 2016. It was 7.9 times after 2020 and is 1.9 times so far after 2024.
What is the Bitcoin halving cycle? The Bitcoin halving cycle is the pattern in Bitcoin's price around the halving. The halving cuts the reward for adding a block to Bitcoin's ledger in half, every 210,000 blocks. Three halvings fall inside our price history, which starts on 1 January 2014.
The highest close came 526 days after the 2016 halving and 546 days after the 2020 halving. For 2024 it has come 534 days so far, while that window is still open.
The high as a multiple of the halving-day close fell from 28.9 times to 7.9 times to 1.9 times so far.
Three halvings cannot separate a halving effect from Bitcoin's own large swings. Two of three 365-day returns beat the 60.4% median of all start dates, but 2024 returned 31.1%.
What is the Bitcoin halving?
Bitcoin records payments in blocks. A block is a batch of transactions. Miners, who run the computers that check transactions, add each new block to the record. The miner who adds a block receives newly created coins, called the block reward.
The halving cuts that reward in half. Bitcoin's software starts the reward at 50 coins and halves it once every 210,000 blocks.
The reward fell to 25 coins on 28 November 2012, to 12.5 on 9 July 2016, to 6.25 on 11 May 2020 and to 3.125 on 20 April 2024. Dates come from the timestamp of each halving block, in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).
Our guide to what Bitcoin is covers the coin itself.
How often does the Bitcoin halving happen?
The halving follows the block count, not the calendar. The software aims for one block every ten minutes, so 210,000 blocks would take 1,458.3 days at that pace. The gaps between the four halvings ran 1,319, 1,402 and 1,440 days.
The next halving falls at block 1,050,000, about 529 days after 30 October 2026 at ten minutes a block.
What is the four-year crypto cycle?
The four-year crypto cycle is a run of rising prices to a high, then a deep fall, repeated at gaps of about four years. We test one part of the idea: when each high came.
Bitcoin's highest closes in the three cycles fell on 17 December 2017, 8 November 2021 and 6 October 2025. The gaps between them were 1,422 and 1,428 days, or 46.7 and 46.9 months. The second gap runs to the 2025 high, which could still move. The halving gaps were 1,402 and 1,440 days.
How did Bitcoin move after each halving?
Chart 1 shows Bitcoin's daily close after each halving. We set the close on the halving day to 1, so a line at 10 means ten times that close. The vertical axis is logarithmic, so equal steps are equal multiples. Bitcoin pays no dividend, so each close is the plain price.
Source: YX Insights price data; Bitcoin block timestamps
In Chart 1 the 2016 line climbs furthest, to 28.9 times its start, while the 2024 line peaks at 1.9 times. The line for 2024 stops at day 919, the last day in our data.
The 90 days after the halving returned -8.0% in 2016, 36.3% in 2020 and 2.7% in 2024. After 365 days the returns were 284.6%, 562.2% and 31.1%.
Halving | Close on halving day | 365-day return | High after the halving | Days to the high | Fall after the high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9 Jul 2016 | $663.00 | 284.6% | $19,187.78 on 17 Dec 2017 | 526 | 83.4% fall to 16 Dec 2018 |
11 May 2020 | $8,569.60 | 562.2% | $67,532.24 on 8 Nov 2021 | 546 | 76.7% fall to 21 Nov 2022 |
20 Apr 2024 | $64,982.47 | 31.1% | $124,719.79 on 6 Oct 2025 | 534 | 53.1% fall to 30 Jun 2026 (open at 26 Oct 2026) |
High: the highest daily close in the 36 months after the halving (for 2024, the 919 days to 26 October 2026). Fall: from the high to the lowest close before the price next closed at that high. Bitcoin pays no dividend. Source: YX Insights price data; Bitcoin block timestamps
How long after the halving did Bitcoin's high come?
We define the high as the highest daily close in the 36 months after the halving.
The 2016 and 2020 highs came 526 and 546 days after the halving, or 17.3 and 17.9 months. Those two are 20 days apart. The 2024 high so far came 534 days after the halving, or 17.5 months, which falls between them. Chart 2 shows the three.
Source: YX Insights price data; Bitcoin block timestamps
In Chart 2 the 2024 bar sits between the other two, but can still change.
We tested the timing four ways. The 2016 and 2020 dates are the same at 24, 30, 36 and 42 months. For 2024 the 24 and 30 month windows give the same date. The 36 and 42 month windows are both cut at 919 days, so they are one test, not two.
Moving the halving close one day earlier or later moves the 2020 multiple between 7.66 and 7.88, but leaves the 28.9, 7.9 and 1.9 in the same order.
Does the halving beat a random start date?
We took every day from 1 January 2014 to 26 October 2025 that has a close exactly 365 days later. That gives 4,311 start dates, which include the three halving dates. The median 365-day return across them was 60.4%. A positive return followed 67.3% of the start dates.
Chart 3 sets the three post-halving returns beside that median. Two beat it by a wide margin. The 2016 return was above 86.3% of all start dates and the 2020 return above 93.4%. The 2024 return of 31.1% was above only 40.5%.
Source: YX Insights price data; Bitcoin block timestamps
In Chart 3 only the 2024 bar sits under the grey median bar. The 4,311 start dates overlap, so they are not independent tests.
What came after each high?
A fall is the drop from a high close to the lowest close before the price next closes at that high. Our guide to drawdowns covers the idea.
The fall after the December 2017 high reached 83.4% by 16 December 2018, which is 364 days later. The fall after the November 2021 high reached 76.7% by 21 November 2022, 378 days later. The fall after the October 2025 high reached 53.1% so far, by 30 June 2026, 267 days later.
The 2025 fall had not ended by 26 October 2026. Bitcoin closed that day 35.8% below the high of $124,719.79. Our guide to Bitcoin volatility compares these falls with stocks.
How did we measure the halving cycle?
We used the daily close of Bitcoin in US dollars, from 1 January 2014 to 26 October 2026. That is 4,679 closes. The file has no closes for 7, 8 and 9 January 2015. Bitcoin trades every day, so we counted calendar days.
The halving-day close is the close dated the UTC day of blocks 420,000, 630,000 and 840,000.
We ran both timing checks with the final code. Neither changed the dates or the order of the multiples.
What does the test leave out?
The sample is three halvings. The November 2012 halving sits before our price history, so it is not in the test. Three observations cannot show that the halving causes a high, because the same dates would also fit other explanations.
The 2024 window is not complete. It closes on 20 April 2027, 1,095 days after the halving. A later close above $124,719.79 would change that cycle's high. The test uses one asset and prices only.
Our tests of Bitcoin as an inflation hedge and of Bitcoin against gold cover other Bitcoin questions.
Bitcoin's highest closes came 526 and 546 days after the 2016 and 2020 halvings. The 2024 high so far came after 534 days. The multiple to each high fell from 28.9 times to 7.9 times to 1.9 times so far. The sample of three keeps the halving's effect on the price unproven.
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Common questions about the Bitcoin halving cycle
How often does the Bitcoin halving happen?
The Bitcoin halving happens once every 210,000 blocks, which took 1,402 days from 2016 to 2020 and 1,440 days from 2020 to 2024. The halving cuts the reward for adding a block in half. Because the trigger is a block count, not a date, the calendar gap varies by weeks to months.
When is the next Bitcoin halving?
About 529 days after 30 October 2026, which points to around April 2028 at ten minutes a block. The next halving falls at block 1,050,000. The chain stood at block 973,789 that day, leaving 76,211 blocks. Faster or slower blocks move the date, because the trigger is a block count.
How long after the halving did Bitcoin reach its high?
Bitcoin reached its highest close 526 days after the 2016 halving and 546 days after the 2020 halving. For 2024 it is 534 days so far, because that 919-day window is still open. We searched the 36 months after each halving. A later higher close would change the 2024 figure.
Does the Bitcoin price rise after a halving?
It rose after all three halvings in our data over 365 days, by 284.6%, 562.2% and 31.1%. The 2024 gain was below the 60.4% median of all 365-day returns since 2014. Three halvings are too few to show that the halving, not Bitcoin's general swings, drove the rise.
What is the four-year crypto cycle?
The four-year crypto cycle is a repeated pattern of a Bitcoin high and then a deep fall, about four years apart. Bitcoin's highest closes came on 17 December 2017, 8 November 2021 and 6 October 2025 (a high that could still move), 1,422 and 1,428 days apart. Falls of 53.1% or more followed each, the latest still open.
DISCLAIMER: This article is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
