Hi YXI friends,

We saw another broad-based rally on Monday, which is an encouraging follow-through on Friday’s bounce.

This market is becoming increasingly difficult by the day, compared with the smooth summer rally we enjoyed from June to September 2025. I expect significant chopping and consolidation through to the end of the month.

It is therefore critical to monitor cross-asset signals and currents to assess crash risks and analyse the moving pieces objectively.

I have deliberately designed the flow of this newsletter so you understand the big picture moving pieces before diving into the individual risk-asset analysis. I understand you may not be as interested in USDJPY or 30-year yields, but they are important jigsaw pieces that support the market context. Otherwise, it is like starting a film from minute 55 - yes, the most action-intensive part - but what on earth has led us here?

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

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