Since 1993, SPY (the exchange-traded fund, or ETF, that tracks the S&P 500, an index of large US companies) had 37 falls of at least 5%. A fall is a drop from the highest closing price so far. Twelve of the 37 reached 10%. Four reached 20%.
A pullback, a correction, and a bear market are names for the size of a fall. One in three falls of 5% went on to reach 10%. One in three falls of 10% went on to reach 20%. Each deeper band also took longer to end.
What is the difference between a pullback, a correction, and a bear market? They name how far a market has fallen from its highest close. A pullback is 5% to under 10%, a correction is 10% to under 20%, and a bear market is 20% or more.
SPY had 37 falls of 5% or more since 1993. One had not ended by 10 November 2026. Of the 36 that had ended, 12 reached 10%. Of those 12, 4 reached 20%.
The median (the middle value) time from the high to the next new high was 38.5 trading days for a fall of 5% to under 10%. Trading days are days the market was open. It was 856.5 days, about 3.4 years, for a fall of 20% or more.
A fall that began on 6 October 2026 had reached 5.92% by 5 November and had not ended by 10 November. We count it in the 37 and leave it out of every recovery time.
What do the three labels mean?
A pullback is a fall of 5% to under 10% from the highest close. A correction is a fall of 10% to under 20%. A bear market is a fall of 20% or more. These are size bands in plain words.
We set the pullback floor at 5%. That is our choice. A different floor gives a different count.
Our explainer on the drawdown covers the general idea of a fall from a high.
How did we count the falls?
We used the daily closing price of SPY, adjusted for dividends and splits, so every return here has dividends counted. SPY launched on 22 January 1993, according to its issuer. Our price file runs from 29 January 1993 to 10 November 2026: 8,504 trading days over 33.8 years.
A closing high is the highest close so far. We measure each fall from the last closing high to the lowest close before the next new closing high. A close equal to the old high does not count as a new high. Counting it as one leaves the three fall counts unchanged.
Each fall has three dates: the high, the low, and the recovery, which is the first close above the old high. We ignored falls under 5%.
How often did each kind of fall happen?
SPY had 37 falls of at least 5% in 33.8 years, which is 1.1 a year. At 10% it had 12, or 0.36 a year. At 20% it had 4, or 0.12 a year.
Chart 1 shows the three counts. Each count includes the deeper falls.
Source: YX Insights price data
By band, 25 falls sit in the 5% to under 10% band, 8 in the 10% to under 20% band, and 4 in the 20% or more band. The fall that had not ended sits in the first band.
Of the 36 falls of 5% or more that had ended, 12 reached 10%, which is one in three.
Which falls reached 10% or more?
The four bear markets began on 24 March 2000, 9 October 2007, 19 February 2020, and 3 January 2022. Chart 2 lists all 12 falls of at least 10%.
Source: YX Insights price data
In Chart 2, the four orange bars are the bear markets, with depths from 24.5% to 55.2%. The eight blue bars are the corrections, with depths from 10.0% to 19.3%.
How long does each kind of fall last?
The deeper the fall, the longer it took in every median and mean (the simple average) in the table. The table shows, for each size band, the number of falls and the trading days they took. Each cell gives the median first, with the mean in brackets.
Size of fall | Falls | Depth, % | High to low, days | Low to new high, days | High to new high, days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5% to under 10% | 25 | 6.3 (6.8) | 20 (20.0) | 20 (26.7) | 38.5 (46.5) |
10% to under 20% | 8 | 12.4 (14.1) | 35.5 (49.6) | 49.5 (52.9) | 89 (102.5) |
20% or more | 4 | 40.6 (40.2) | 275 (302.5) | 581.5 (570.0) | 856.5 (872.5) |
SPY from 29 January 1993 to 10 November 2026, dividends counted, closing prices. Median first, mean in brackets. Days are trading days. The fall that began on 6 October 2026 had not ended: it counts in the first band and in the high to low column. It is left out of the two recovery columns. Source: YX Insights price data
In the 20% or more row, the median fall took 275 days to reach its low and 856.5 days from the high to a new high. That is 3.4 years, at about 252 trading days a year.
The depth and high to low figures use all falls in a band, including the one that had not ended. The recovery figures use only the falls that had ended.
The last column is not the sum of the two before it, because medians come from different falls. A pullback took a median of 20 days down and 20 back, but 38.5 from the high to a new high. A correction took 35.5 down and 49.5 back, but 89 in all.
Chart 3 shows the first two medians for each band. Blue is the stretch from the high to the low. Orange is the stretch from the low to a new high.
Source: YX Insights price data
The bear market band holds only four falls. They differ widely. The 2020 fall took 23 days from the high to the low and 120 days in all. The fall from March 2000 took 637 days down and 1,657 days in all, which is about 6.6 years.
When does a correction become a bear market?
One fall of at least 10% in three went on to 20%. Of the 12, 8 stopped short and 4 went on.
Three of the 8 stopped within 1.3 percentage points of 20%. Those were the falls from 17 July 1998 (19.03%), 20 September 2018 (19.34%), and 19 February 2025 (18.76%).
With dividends counted, as here, the 2018 fall reached 19.34%. On price-only closes it reached 20.18%, so the count of falls of at least 20% would be 5, not 4.
What about the fall that began in October 2026?
The last closing high in the data is 6 October 2026. SPY's lowest close since then was on 5 November 2026, 5.92% below that high. On 10 November 2026 it closed 3.74% below.
That fall has passed 5% and has not reached 10%. We count it in the 37 and in the band for 5% to under 10%. We leave it out of every recovery figure, because it has not recovered.
Our guide to why the stock market is down covers causes. Our test of stock market recovery time measures the wait after four peaks in a different way, so its dates differ from the ones here.
How much of the time was SPY below its high?
SPY closed at least 5% below its closing high on 44.4% of trading days. It closed at least 10% below on 31.3% of days, or 2,662 of 8,504. It closed at least 20% below on 16.8% of days.
It closed at a new closing high on 876 days, which is 10.3%. Of the 2,662 days at least 10% below, 2,563 fell inside the four bear markets.
Our look at time in the market shows what staying through such stretches did to the annual return.
What does the count assume?
The count covers one fund over one window. A different index, start date, or floor would give different counts.
Four bear markets are too few to say what a typical one looks like. We make no forecast. Our Multi-model Signals cover SPY.
In SPY since 1993, size and duration rose together, from a median of 38.5 trading days for a pullback to 856.5 days for a bear market.
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Common questions about corrections and bear markets
What is the difference between a correction and a bear market?
A correction is a fall of 10% to under 20% from the highest close, while a bear market is a fall of 20% or more. In SPY since 1993, 8 falls fell 10% to under 20% and 4 fell 20% or more, with dividends counted.
How long does a stock market correction last?
In SPY since 1993, the 8 falls of 10% to under 20% took a median of 35.5 trading days from the high to the low. The median from the high to a new high was 89 days, because the medians come from different falls. The mean was 102.5 days.
How often does the S&P 500 fall 10%?
SPY, a fund that tracks the S&P 500, fell at least 10% from a closing high 12 times between 29 January 1993 and 10 November 2026. That is 0.36 times a year. Four of those falls went on to reach 20%. That is a count of past falls, not a forecast.
What is a pullback in the stock market?
A pullback is a fall of 5% to under 10% from the highest close so far. SPY had 25 since 1993. The 24 that had ended by 10 November 2026 took a median of 38.5 trading days from the high to a new high.
How long does a bear market last?
In SPY since 1993, the four falls of 20% or more took a median of 856.5 trading days from the high to a new high, about 3.4 years. The range ran from 120 days in 2020 to 1,657 days from March 2000, both measured from the high to a new high.
DISCLAIMER: This article is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
