US consumer prices rose 0.6% in September 2026. That was the fastest month since March 2026. The Consumer Price Index, the main US measure of what households pay for goods and services, stood 3.7% above a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August.
The core rate is where the surprise was. Core inflation leaves out food and energy, the two components that swing hardest. It rose 0.3% on the month against the 0.2% consensus. Just over half an hour after the release the 2-year Treasury yield had risen 14.7 basis points. A basis point is one hundredth of 1%.
What did the September 2026 CPI report show? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures what US households pay for goods and services. It rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% over the year, both faster than August. Core prices, which leave out food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month and 2.6% over the year.
The monthly rise was driven by energy. The gasoline index rose 9.1% in September alone.
Core came in above the 0.2% monthly consensus forecast. Core strips out the two components that swing hardest, so it is read as the underlying rate.
At 09:02 Eastern Time, just over half an hour after the release, the 2-year Treasury yield was up 14.7 basis points at 4.944%, the 10-year up 10.4 at 5.321%.
What the September 2026 CPI report showed
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September figures at 08:30 Eastern Time on 14 October 2026. The all items index rose 0.6% on the month, seasonally adjusted, after 0.4% in August.
Over 12 months the all items index rose 3.7%, against 3.4% in August. The core index, all items less food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month and 2.6% over 12 months, against 2.4% in August.
The monthly figure matched the 0.6% consensus forecast. The other three did not. The 12-month rate came in at 3.7% against 3.6%. Core was 0.3% against 0.2% on the month, then 2.6% against 2.5% over the year.
What the Consumer Price Index is sets out how the index is built.
The details
Energy did most of the monthly work. The energy index rose 5.2% in September and 20.4% over 12 months. Gasoline alone rose 9.1% on the month and 34.2% over the year.
Food was flat on the month, at 2.5% over 12 months. Shelter, the largest single component, rose 0.4% on the month and 3.2% over the year.
Source: BLS; YX Insights
The chart gives the 12-month change in both indices over five years. Headline inflation has been the more volatile of the two. It reached 4.25% in May 2026, fell to 3.36% in July, then turned back up.
Core has moved in a narrower band. At 2.6% in September it sits below its May 2026 reading of 2.85%. September was a step up, not a new high.
The gap between the two lines is food and energy. No index was published for October 2025, so each line joins September 2025 straight to November 2025. Core and headline inflation explains why the two are reported separately.
How markets reacted
The levels below are as at 09:02 Eastern Time, just over half an hour after the release. The US cash equity market had not yet opened.
Source: YX Insights
The 2-year Treasury yield rose 14.7 basis points to 4.944%. The 10-year rose 10.4 to 5.321%. The 30-year rose 5.5 to 5.618%.
The 2-year end of the curve moved most. The gap between the 10-year and the 2-year narrowed from 42.0 basis points to 37.7. A 2-year yield prices roughly two years of policy rate, so it responds hardest to a change in what the next few meetings might bring.
The dollar rose. The US Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against six other currencies, was 0.60% higher at 102.825. Gold fell 1.81% to $4,085.78 an ounce.
In pre-market trading SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) was 0.35% lower. QQQ (the Nasdaq-100 ETF) was 0.69% lower and IWM (the Russell 2000 ETF, which holds smaller companies) 1.28% lower. Russell 2000 futures were 1.14% lower. Smaller companies fell furthest of the three.
What it means for the Fed
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its target range for the Fed Funds Rate to 3.75% to 4.00% effective 17 September 2026. That was a rise, not a cut. The Committee had been cutting through 2024 and 2025, reaching 3.50% to 3.75% at the end of 2025.
The next meeting is on 28 October 2026.
Source: YX Insights
Fed Funds Futures are contracts whose price settles on the average overnight rate over a calendar month. Resolved onto the meeting calendar, the strip carried 12 basis points of increase at the October meeting after the release. A single move of 25 basis points would be 25, so the market was carrying a little under half of one.
The strip carried 4.24% by the December meeting, against an effective rate of 3.88% on the day. Further out it levelled off, reaching 4.82% by December 2027. That is 94 basis points in total, or 3.8 moves of 25.
Fed Funds Futures covers how the pricing is read.
What to watch next
The October CPI report is due on 10 November 2026 at 08:30 Eastern Time. The Federal Open Market Committee meets on 28 October 2026, with the decision at 14:00 Eastern Time. The FOMC meeting schedule carries the full calendar.
September's report put headline inflation at 3.7% and core at 2.6%, both above August. The move in the 2-year yield, larger than the move in the 10-year, is where that showed up first.
Common questions about the September 2026 CPI report
What was the CPI for September 2026?
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in September 2026 on a seasonally adjusted basis, after 0.4% in August. Over 12 months it rose 3.7%, up from 3.4%. Core prices, which leave out food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month and 2.6% over 12 months.
Why did Treasury yields rise after the CPI report?
Core inflation came in at 0.3% on the month against the 0.2% consensus. Core leaves out food and energy, the two components that swing hardest. At 09:02 Eastern Time, just over half an hour after the release, the 2-year Treasury yield had risen 14.7 basis points to 4.944%, with the 10-year up 10.4 to 5.321%.
Will the Fed raise rates in October 2026?
The Federal Open Market Committee meets on 28 October 2026 and publishes its decision at 14:00 Eastern Time. After the release, Fed Funds Futures resolved onto the meeting calendar carried 12 basis points of increase at that meeting, against the 25 a single move would be. The target range is 3.75% to 4.00%.
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