Hi YXI friends,

Well, that was short-lived. After the US said Iran had opened the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, which propelled the continued equity rally, the Strait appeared to be shut again over the weekend. This prompted selloffs in crypto.

As of now, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with Bloomberg reporting that zero oil tankers are transiting for the first time in history. Moreover, US forces fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged vessel in the Gulf of Oman after it ignored warnings, with Trump confirming a hole was blown in the engine room.

It seems that Iran isn’t willing to do a deal without first testing the US further. This could be due to factional infighting or simply that the ceasefire was a stalling tactic without any real intention to negotiate. They know all too well the power they hold by closing the Strait of Hormuz.

My overall stance is not outright bearish. I do think the March lows have marked the local lows, but I still expect a pullback (key levels highlighted in this article). Even though I was too early in that expectation last week!

I try not to be too short-term result-oriented in my analysis, but focus on the process and the key variables that drive the market. If I’m wrong or my models are wrong - no problem - we learn and adapt.

Housekeeping: I am still working on the new model for predictions 1-month out. Once we have those nailed, I will start splitting the briefing into separate Macro and Equity briefings.

For Equities, I lean towards focusing on the AI theme, as it remains a generational opportunity. I will need some time sorting through the names.

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

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