Hi YXI friends,

Equity indices slowed in their climb, although QQQ closed at a fresh high since the April 7 low. SPY made an intraday high but closed flat. This was despite the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change coming in much lower (37k) than expected (111k).

The market reaction to poor jobs data was more pronounced in bonds, as the 10-year and 30-year yields both fell by 10bp. This helped TLT to defy our cash holding, rising by 1.6% on Wednesday. Overall, the market could be tempted to think that “bad news is good news” if it could push the Fed to cut early.

Among the Mag-7s, TSLA fell by 3.5% after reports of poor May sales in Europe ahead of new Model Y deliveries in June. There could also be investor jitters around Elon’s latest comments on the tax bill. Having said the above, I tend not to overpay attention to news and politics as they are unreliably noisy at all times, unless it’s a fundamental shock like the Liberation Day.

We currently offer SPY, QQQ, BTC, TLT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, and PLTR daily systematic signals through machine learning in this service. We combine these signals with our other methodologies in the full daily macro note for in-depth analysis.

I plan to keep TSLA and PLTR free for everyone, everyday. Please share the newsletter with friends and colleagues who may find it helpful for reference.

Premium subscribers can enjoy daily access to SPY, QQQ, BTC, TLT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, and NVDA signals. If you haven’t already, subscribe now to lock in the current price forever.

How The Model Works

We employ proprietary machine learning models for each asset to maximise the Sharpe ratio and minimise the drawdowns when trading the name. The model achieves this by examining a number of macro drivers and asset specific factors against the asset’s historical price movements. It is a long-only strategy without leverage.

In interpreting the signal, 1 occurs when the model prefers being “position on” and 0 when preferring “cash”. There is no “minimum” holding period when the signal shows 1. The model strategy simply holds the asset until the signal turns to 0. This could be after 1 day, 1 week, or longer.

The unique strength of our offering is the combination of the independent cross-asset signals everyday, to clearly illustrate the market sentiment.

The model will NOT be 100% correct in its market prediction everyday (no model can be - please run away if someone claims this). Each model is being improved over time, so the below success rates and back-test results are subject to change. Currently, the model returns are calculated using the daily closes versus the previous day. The model outputs are not financial advice and there is no guarantee of future performance.

Table of Contents

• How The Model Works

• 1. TSLA

• 2. PLTR

• 2.5 Summary Of Today’s YXI Signals

• 3. SPY

• 4. QQQ

• 5. BTC

• 6. TLT

• 7. AAPL

• 8. AMZN

• 9. GOOGL

• 10. META

• 11. MSFT

• 12. NVDA

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

1. TSLA

The YXI TSLA Signal

(These results are based on historical data and may not predict future performance.)

Strategy Sharpe Ratio: 1.70

Strategy Maximum Drawdown: -33.74%

Buy & Hold Sharpe Ratio: 0.78

Buy & Hold Maximum Drawdown: -73.63%

Note the y-axis below is in log scale to offer a clearer comparison between the two strategies.

2. PLTR

The YXI PLTR Signal

(These results are based on historical data and may not predict future performance.)

Strategy Sharpe Ratio: 1.88

Strategy Maximum Drawdown: -40.61%

Buy & Hold Sharpe Ratio: 0.91

Buy & Hold Maximum Drawdown: -79.14%

Note the y-axis below is in log scale to offer a clearer comparison between the two strategies

2.5 Summary Of Today’s YXI Signals

SPY, QQQ, BTC, TLT, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, META, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR

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