Hi YXI friends,

While the Supreme Court’s decision to undo Trump’s tariffs was largely expected (by the predictions market), Trump’s counter-offensive has thrown new uncertainties into global trade.

Under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, Trump can raise a temporary tariff rate on US imports from all countries to 15% for 150 days. Trump is now fully utilising this power to keep his tariff strategy.

However, some countries, such as the UK, have already negotiated a lower tariff than the latest levy. The sudden change has thrown a wrench into the current deal agreements and negotiations. The chaos can create greater anxiety for business planning, with a knock-on effect on relocation and hiring, on top of the AI concerns.

We may all have political opinions and favour one set of outcomes over another, but unfortunately, there is no crystal ball on how policies will evolve in the mid-term. One cannot even rule out a change of heart by the President if the market slides into another March-April 2025 crash (neither of which I do not yet foresee).

Our job is to stay hawk-eyed on the data across the macroeconomy and investable assets to understand how the market is pricing all of the moving parts. Doing so will keep us on the frontfoot without having to follow every headline.

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

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