TSMC (TSM) Q3 Revenue Tops Guidance: What It Means

TSMC (TSM) published its September 2026 revenue on 8 October 2026, which completes its third quarter. Revenue for July to September came to 1.49 trillion New Taiwan dollars (NT$). TSMC's forecast was in US dollars. At the exchange rate TSMC assumed, the quarter came in above the top of it.

TSMC's American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), the shares traded in New York, closed at $472.20 on 7 October 2026, the last US session before the release. Prices in this report run to that close.

TSMC filed its September 2026 revenue report on 8 October 2026. It used a Form 6-K. This is the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) form for news from foreign companies.

September revenue was NT$511.86 billion. That is 0.6% lower than August, but 54.6% higher than September 2025.

TSMC's earlier reports give July revenue of NT$467.58 billion and August revenue of NT$514.81 billion. With September, the quarter totals NT$1,494.24 billion.

In its second-quarter results on 16 July 2026, TSMC forecast third-quarter revenue of US$44.6 billion to US$45.8 billion. Gross margin, the share of revenue left after the cost of making the chips, was forecast at 65% to 67%. Operating margin, what is left after running costs too, was forecast at 56% to 58%.

TSMC based its margin forecasts on an assumed rate of 32 Taiwan dollars per US dollar. TSMC reports under Taiwan-IFRS, the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) as adopted in Taiwan.

The release came out in Asian hours on 8 October 2026. The dashed line on the charts marks 7 October, the last US session before it.

On 7 October the ADRs fell 2.09% to $472.20.

A moving average is the mean closing price over a set number of days. On 7 October the close of $472.20 sat 10.1% above the 50-day average of $429.05. It sat 21.6% above the 200-day average of $388.44.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) runs from 0 to 100. It compares gains with losses over the last 14 days. Above 70 suggests the price has risen fast. Below 30 suggests it has fallen fast. At the 7 October close the RSI stood at 64.6.

The grey bars on the right show how many ADRs traded at each price, called the volume profile. The busiest band was $291 to $302, about $170 below the 7 October close.

Each candle is one day. The thick body runs from the open to the close, while the thin line spans the high and low. Green means it closed above its open, red below.

On 7 October the ADRs opened at $472.60, down 2.01% from the previous close of $482.30. They ranged from $471.30 to $475.80. The candle is red because the $472.20 close was below the open.

At TSMC's assumed rate of 32, NT$1,494.24 billion is US$46.7 billion. That is US$0.9 billion, or 2.0%, above the top of the range.

TSMC's actual average rate is likely to differ from 32. Revenue stays above US$45.8 billion as long as a US dollar bought fewer than about 32.6 Taiwan dollars.

In Taiwan dollars, revenue rose 50.9% on the third quarter of 2025. Part of that is a weaker Taiwan dollar. A year ago a US dollar bought 29.91 Taiwan dollars on average, against the 32 TSMC assumed now. So each US dollar of sales turns into more Taiwan dollars.

In US dollars at the rate of 32, revenue rose 41.1%, from US$33.10 billion a year earlier.

TSMC had 25,932.5 million shares at the end of 2025. Each ADR represents five of them, so that equals 5,186.5 million ADRs. At the 7 October close of $472.20, the market value was about $2.45 trillion. This treats each Taiwan share as worth one fifth of an ADR.

Second-quarter earnings per share (EPS) were US$4.31 per ADR, under Taiwan-IFRS. Four times that is $17.24, a rough yearly pace. At $472.20, a buyer paid $27.39 for each $1 of that yearly profit.

Second-quarter profit included NT$95.83 billion of non-operating items, gains outside the core chip business. That compares with NT$28.83 billion in the first quarter, so the yearly pace may be overstated.

What the beat changes is the base for profit. If the gross margin lands in TSMC's 65% to 67% range, US$46.7 billion of revenue leaves US$30.4 billion to US$31.3 billion of gross profit under Taiwan-IFRS.

TSMC reports full third-quarter results on 15 October 2026. Its earnings conference starts at 14:00 Taiwan time, which is 02:00 Eastern Time. From 5 to 14 October 2026, TSMC is in a Quiet Period, when it does not talk to investors.

The results will give the margins under Taiwan-IFRS. In the second quarter TSMC reported a 67.7% gross margin and a 60.3% operating margin. Both were above that quarter's ranges of 65.5% to 67.5% and 56.5% to 58.5%.

The results will also give the US dollar revenue, the exchange rate and a fourth-quarter forecast. In July TSMC expected 2026 revenue to grow by slightly above 40% in US dollar terms.

At TSMC's own exchange rate, third-quarter revenue of US$46.7 billion sits above the top of its range. The margins and the fourth-quarter forecast on 15 October 2026 will show how much of that turns into profit.

This report is part of YX Insights News. We cover company and crypto news on the names in our Multi-model Signals. Each report starts from the primary filing and checks it against market data.

The same approach runs through everything else we publish:

Good places to start on the website:

On TSMC's own exchange rate assumption, yes. Its monthly reports put third-quarter revenue at NT$1,494.24 billion. At 32 Taiwan dollars per US dollar, that is US$46.7 billion, above the forecast range of US$44.6 billion to US$45.8 billion. TSMC gives the official US dollar figure with its results on 15 October 2026.

TSMC holds its third-quarter 2026 earnings conference on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 14:00 Taiwan time, which is 02:00 Eastern Time. The results bring margins, profit and a forecast for the fourth quarter. TSMC observes a Quiet Period from 5 to 14 October 2026, when it makes no contact with the investment community.

One TSM ADR represents five TSMC common shares listed in Taiwan. That comes from TSMC's 2025 annual report, filed with the SEC on Form 20-F. The ADRs trade in US dollars on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker TSM. The Taiwan shares trade in Taiwan dollars on the Taiwan Stock Exchange under the code 2330.

DISCLAIMER: This article is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.