SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) was higher three months later after five of six wars and attacks since 2001. An exchange-traded fund (ETF) is a fund that trades like a share. SPY ends higher in 72.0% of all three-month periods since 1993, so five of six is close to ordinary. SPY holds the companies of the S&P 500 stock index.
The six events are the 11 September 2001 attacks, the March 2003 start of military operations in Iraq, the Russian address of 24 February 2022, the 7 October 2023 attack, Israeli strikes on Iran in June 2025, and US strikes on 28 February 2026. We measure from the last close before each event, which is the last price set before the news. One month later, SPY was higher after four of the six, against 65.7% of all one-month periods. The weakest one-month result was 7.6% lower, after 28 February 2026. We wrote this on 11 November 2026, with price data to 10 November.
What happens to ETFs when a war starts? In six wars and attacks since 2001, SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) was higher three months later in five. SPY ends higher in 72.0% of all three-month periods, so the count is close to ordinary. Six events are too few to say what the next one will do.
SPY's lowest close in the three months after each event sat between 1.3% and 11.3% below the last close before it, which is the last price set before the news.
In the four events from 2022 on, USO (the oil ETF) and ITA (the US aerospace and defence ETF) both rose on the first trading day after each event. One of the two had the best one-month result of seven funds in each of the four.
GLD (the gold ETF) fell 14.3% in the month after the strikes of 28 February 2026 and rose 8.0% in the month after 7 October 2023.
Which wars and attacks did we test?
We tested events that we could source to an official record: a government release or address, a commission report, or a United Nations document. We chose by sourcing and did not screen other wars. SPY began trading in January 1993, so earlier wars are outside the data. No event from 1993 to 2000 is tested.
We measured SPY with dividends counted, from the last close before each event to the 21st and the 63rd trading session after it. That is about one month and three months. A trading session is a day the US stock market is open.
Event | What the record states | Record we opened | Last close before |
|---|---|---|---|
11 September 2001 | American Airlines Flight 11 crashed into the North Tower of the World Trade Center in New York City at 8:46:40. US stock markets resumed trading on Monday 17 September | The 9/11 Commission Report; SEC, 16 September 2001 | 10 September 2001 |
19 March 2003 | At 10:16 p.m. EST, President Bush said American and coalition forces were in the early stages of military operations to disarm Iraq | White House, address to the nation | 19 March 2003 |
24 February 2022 | The Kremlin dated the address 24 February 2022. President Putin said he had made a decision to carry out a special military operation | Kremlin, address by the President | 23 February 2022 |
7 October 2023 | The attack began at 06:30 (the report gives no time zone), with a heavy barrage of rockets and mortar shells fired at southern Israeli villages and towns | United Nations Human Rights Council report A/HRC/56/26 | 6 October 2023 |
13 June 2025 | At about 3:15 a.m. local time, the Israeli military launched waves of airstrikes across Iran | United Nations, statement by Rosemary DiCarlo, 13 June 2025 | 12 June 2025 |
28 February 2026 | US and partner forces began striking targets at 1:15 a.m. Eastern Time, including Iranian air defence capabilities and missile and drone launch sites | US Central Command, public release, 28 February 2026 | 27 February 2026 |
Date of the event as the record gives it. Source: the official records named in the table; YX Insights price data
The table shows the six events, what each record states, and the last close before each.
US stock markets did not trade from 11 to 14 September 2001 and reopened on 17 September.
The Iraq address came at 10:16 p.m. in New York. The Kremlin dates Putin's address 24 February 2022. We use the close of 23 February as the last close before it. The United Nations record gives no time zone for 06:30 on 7 October 2023, a Saturday. About 3:15 a.m. in the Middle East on 13 June 2025 was the evening of 12 June in New York.
How did SPY do after each event?
Source: YX Insights price data
At one month, SPY was higher after the 2003, 2022, 2023, and 2025 events. It was lower after the 2001 event (0.3%) and the 2026 event (7.6%). At three months, SPY was higher after every event except 2022, when it was 6.4% lower.
For comparison, we measured every 21-session window in SPY's history, 8,483 windows from 29 January 1993. Of these, 65.7% ended higher. Of 8,441 windows of 63 sessions, 72.0% did.
At a 72.0% rate, five or more of six would come up about 46% of the time. At 65.7%, four or more of six would come up about 66% of the time. Six events are too few to tell the war results apart from ordinary windows.
The first session after the event was higher in four of the six cases, by at most 1.5%. It was lower after 2001 (5.2%) and 2025 (1.1%).
We also searched the 63 sessions after each event for SPY's lowest close. It sat 11.3% below the last close before the event on 21 September 2001. The shallowest was 1.3% below on 20 June 2025. The 2022 low came 60 sessions after the last close before the Russian address.
In 2022, the Federal Reserve raised the Federal Funds Rate target range, the range it sets for overnight lending between banks, to 0.25% to 0.50% on 16 March.
Which ETFs led one month after each event?
QQQ (the Nasdaq-100 ETF) holds the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq. TLT (the long-term Treasury bond ETF) holds US Treasury bonds, which are loans to the US government, with more than 20 years left before repayment. GLD (the gold ETF) tracks the price of gold bullion.
XLE (the energy sector ETF) holds the energy companies of the S&P 500. ITA (the US aerospace and defence ETF) holds US aerospace and defence companies. USO (the oil ETF) holds crude oil futures, which are contracts to buy oil at a set price on a set future date. It aims to reflect the spot price of oil, the price for oil delivered now, but can differ from it.
TLT launched in July 2002, GLD in November 2004, and USO and ITA in 2006. The charts show "n/a" before each launch.
Source: YX Insights price data
In the four events from 2022 on, all seven funds existed. USO and ITA each rose on the first trading session after in all four. At one month, USO led the seven funds in 2022 (20.4%) and 2026 (58.4%). ITA led in 2023 (8.7%) and 2025 (7.8%).
ITA fell 13.5% in the month after the 2026 strikes.
XLE was 15.0% higher at one month in 2022, 11.5% in 2026, and 1.2% in 2025. It was 3.2% lower in 2001, 0.5% lower in 2003, and unchanged to one decimal in 2023 (down 0.03%).
Gold and long-term bonds went both ways. GLD was 2.7% higher at one month in 2022, 8.0% higher in 2023, 1.8% lower in 2025, and 14.3% lower in 2026. TLT was higher at one month after the 2003 and 2023 events and lower after 2022, 2025, and 2026.
Which ETFs led three months after each event?
Source: YX Insights price data
XLE led the seven funds in 2022 (25.7%), ITA led in 2023 (18.0%) and 2025 (11.2%), and USO led in 2026 (57.5%). GLD was 13.8% lower at three months in 2026. TLT was 12.6% lower in 2022.
Readers can follow SPY, QQQ, TLT, and GLD in Multi-model Signals.
What the figures do not show
The figures do not show that a war caused a move, because other news fell inside the windows. The 2025 and 2026 events both involve strikes on Iran. The 2023 event is in the same region. The oil and defence pattern rests on fewer than six independent cases.
A different start or end date would give different numbers. We tested the funds, not the price of oil itself.
So what happens to ETFs when a war starts?
In these six cases, SPY was higher three months later in five, about as often as in ordinary three-month periods. Oil and defence funds rose on the first session after all four events where they existed, while gold and long-term bonds went both ways.
Our guide on how ETFs perform in a crisis covers other stress periods. See also what an ETF is, is gold a safe haven, and how the oil market works.
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Common questions about stocks during war
Do stocks go up or down when a war starts?
Both happened in our six cases. SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) was higher three months after five of six events since 2001, while 72.0% of all three-month periods end higher. One month after, it was higher in four and lower in 2001 and 2026. Six events are too few to say what the next one will do.
Do oil prices rise when a war starts?
USO, the oil ETF, rose on the first trading session in all four events where it existed, by 0.2% to 6.9%. At three months, USO was higher in 2022 and 2026 and lower in 2023 and 2025. USO holds oil futures, which are contracts to buy oil on a set future date, so it can differ from the spot price of oil.
Does gold go up when a war starts?
Gold was mixed. GLD, the gold ETF, rose on the first trading session in three of four events, but at one month it was higher in two and lower in two. It was 8.0% higher after 7 October 2023 and 14.3% lower after 28 February 2026. Our guide on whether gold is a safe haven has more.
Which wars does the test cover?
We chose events we could source to an official record and did not screen other wars, so no event from 1993 to 2000 is tested. TLT (the long-term Treasury bond ETF), GLD, USO, and ITA launched between 2002 and 2006, so older wars cannot be tested with them. SPY began trading in January 1993.
DISCLAIMER: This article is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
