Friday's Nasdaq sell-off. The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.5% on Friday, led by an 8.2% drop in semiconductors, and the S&P 500 lost 1.8%. It was the sharpest break in risk appetite since the summer, and the AI trade took the brunt of it.
Oil and the Strait of Hormuz. Attacks on tankers are running at wartime highs, and Iran says four tankers struck mines on Friday. Reporting links the risk of a wider strike to the period after the US midterms, so the conflict could still get worse from here.
The midterms. Tomorrow's vote is the other big risk factor this week. Together with Hormuz, it makes this a week to think about tail risk in positioning, hedges and risk sizing. Even where names look attractive after Friday, I would stick with discipline, neither panic selling nor getting greedy and buying everything.
Apple and Palantir tonight. Options price a 4.3% move either way for Apple and 13.2% for Palantir.
Apple's consensus of $113.35 billion of revenue and $1.99 of EPS sits at the top of its own guide, so the December-quarter guide is key. Palantir is expected to report about $2.2 billion of revenue, up about 85%, and $0.41 of EPS, with the market looking for another raise to the full-year guide.
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DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
